Climate change threatens to increase the frequency and intensity of droughts and floods. There are large uncertainties related to unknowns around the future and society's responses to these threats. 'Uncertainty' as other words with the prefix 'un' (unknown, untold, unrest) often has negative connotations. Yet, uncertainty is manifested in virtually everything we do. To many in science, uncertainty is akin to error that should be minimised, a lack of knowledge that needs to be rectified. We argue that uncertainty rather should be embraced as a starting point for discussing pathways to climate adaptation. Here we follow a definition of 'pathways to adaptation' as representing a set of proactive changes in the present that move people from a climatically unsafe place, to positions of safety (self-defined as representing freedom from harm or adverse effect). This article applies an interdiscursive analytical approach where (un)certainty and (un)safety are used to deepen the understanding around the positions of people in Senegal, and their livelihoods, with respect to climate hazards. We examine the discursive socio-cultural values active in the climate adaptive space. Our findings show that people's adaptive decisions often were not based on climate information, but on discursive values and emotions that guided them in the direction of responses that felt right. We conclude that acknowledging different understandings and perceptions of uncertainty, and the goal of achieving safety, allows issues of power to be discussed. We contend that this process helps illuminate how to navigate pathways of adaptation to the impacts of climate variability and change.

Managing climate-related risks is clouded in differing levels of uncertainty that are magnified when trying to understand their potential impacts on socio-ecological systems. The ‘cascade of uncertainty’ is particularly apparent in Africa where socio-ecological data are sparse, and the development and validation of impact models are at varying stages. In this context, using heuristics may serve as an effective way for policy makers to incorporate climate change knowledge into decision-making. Previous scholarship has identified the principles of Flexibility, Robustness and Economic low/no regrets in decision-making under uncertainty. In this chapter, we first make the case for adding Equity to these heuristics, where equity involves ensuring that reducing the climate change risk for one cohort of society does not result in its increase for another. Second, we describe how these principles have been applied under two DFID/NERC funded projects: ForPAc and AMMA-2050 through the use of Participatory Impact Pathways Analysis tools.