Decision making under deep uncertainty for adapting urban drainage systems to change

Babovic, Filip; Mijic, Ana; Madani, Kaveh

doi:10.1080/1573062x.2018.1529803

Cited by 26 publications

(14 citation statements)

References 49 publications

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“…The presence of deep uncertainty is felt across many sectors such as energy generation [5], water supply [6], coastal flood risk [7], and transport planning [8]. Deep Uncertainty is also present within the problem of urban pluvial flooding [9]. However, the deep uncertainties present within urban pluvial flooding have not been widely explored.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Economic Evaluation of Adaptation Pathways for an Urban Drainage System Experiencing Deep Uncertainty

Babovic

Mijic

2019

Water

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As Decision Making under Deep Uncertainty methodologies are becoming more widely utilised, there has been a growth in the use and generation of Adaptation Pathways. These are meant to convey to policy makers how short-term adaptations can act as elements of longer-term adaptation strategies. However, sets of Adaptation Pathways do not convey the individual pathway’s relative costs and benefits. To address this problem in relation to urban pluvial flooding, an economic analysis of a set of Adaptation Pathways was conducted. Initially, a methodology to conduct an economic assessment for deterministic climate change scenarios is developed. This methodology is then modified, using methods that underpin real options to assess how a pathway performs across a bundle of possible futures. This delivered information on how the performance of adaptations can vary across different climate change scenarios. By comparing the deterministic analysis to the new method, it was found that the order in which options are implemented greatly affects the financial performance of an Adaptation Pathway, even if the final combination of options is identical. The presented methodology has the potential to greatly improve decision making by informing policy makers on the potential performance of adaptation strategies being considered.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Economic Evaluation of Adaptation Pathways for an Urban Drainage System Experiencing Deep Uncertainty

Babovic

Mijic

2019

Water

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“…Thresholds can be identified using technical, environmental, societal, or economic indicators [30,38]. An AT is found by modelling the system and placing it under increasingly larger stress [42]. ATs can also be identified through moderated processes using scenarios with different conditions representing stress and using sensitivity testing.…”

Section: Dynamic Adaptive Policy Pathways (Dapp)mentioning

confidence: 99%

Preparing for Sea-Level Rise through Adaptive Managed Retreat of a New Zealand Stormwater and Wastewater Network

et al. 2020

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Sea-level rise increasingly affects low-lying and exposed coastal communities due to climate change. These communities rely upon the delivery of stormwater and wastewater services which are often co-located underground in coastal areas. Due to sea-level rise and associated compounding climate-related hazards, managing these networks will progressively challenge local governments as climate change advances. Thus, responsible agencies must reconcile maintaining Levels of Service as the impacts of climate change worsen over the coming decades and beyond. A critical question is whether such networks can continue to be adapted/protected over time to retain Levels of Service, or whether eventual retreat may be the only viable adaptation option? If so, at what performance threshold? In this paper, we explore these questions for stormwater and wastewater, using a dynamic adaptive pathway planning (DAPP) approach designed to address thresholds and increasing risk over time. Involving key local stakeholders, we here use DAPP to identify thresholds for stormwater and wastewater services and retreat options, and for developing a comprehensive and area-specific retreat strategy comprising pathway portfolios, retreat phases, potential land use changes, and for exploring pathway conflicts and synergies. The result is a prototype for an area near Wellington, New Zealand, where a managed retreat of water infrastructure is being considered at some future juncture. Dynamic adaptive strategies for managed retreats can help to reduce future disruption from coastal flooding, signal land use changes early, inform maintenance, and allow for gradual budget adjustments by the agencies that can manage expenditure over time. We present this stepwise process in a pathway form that can be communicated spatially and visually, thereby making a retreat a more manageable, sequenced, adaptation option for water agencies, and the communities they serve.

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“…Within urban flooding, deep uncertainty arises through the interaction of multiple sources of uncertainty such as population growth, land use change, and climate change (Babovic et al, ; Deng et al, ). Given the limited degree of confidence that can be attributed to projections of the future, it is critical that methodologies of planning account for these uncertainties as the “traditional optimum expected utility approach, at least in its most basic form, is insufficient to address decision challenges with the characteristics of climate change” (Groves & Lempert, pp.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…However, under conditions of deep uncertainty this may not lead to improved predictive ability, as the past is of limited use as an indicator of the future (Milly et al, 2008). Deep uncertainty does not reflect complete ignorance about what may happen in the future; it is possible to identify plausible futures, but it is not possible to explore all possible uncertainties (Herman, Zeff, Reed, & Characklis, 2014;Kwakkel & Pruyt, 2013) A thorough exploration of decision making under deep uncertainty (DMDU) can be found in Walker, Haasnoot, and Kwakkel (2013), while Babovic, Mijic, and Madani (2018) explores DMDU in an urban drainage context.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The development of adaptation pathways for the long‐term planning of urban drainage systems

Babovic

Mijic

2019

J Flood Risk Management

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Cities must adapt their drainage systems to cope with the effects of land use and climate change on growing flood risk. However, the development of robust adaptation strategies remains a challenge due to the deep uncertainty surrounding future conditions. To address this problem, an Adaptation Tipping Points (ATP) approach was utilised to investigate the impacts of future rainfall with respect to increases in both depth and intensity on an urban drainage system. A set of adaptation pathways was generated to assess how the drainage system could be adapted using a range of infrastructure solutions. The most effective combination of adaptations to increase the system's ATP was an increase in system storage followed by green infrastructure solutions to add additional capacity to the system. The methodology enabled no‐regret adaptation by proposing a set of selected interventions that can be incrementally implemented to achieve maximal combined effect. The resulting pathways effectively communicate to decision makers how short‐term solutions allow for long‐term adaptation and sustainable development. The ATP approach proved to be an effective tool for decision‐making that provided a structured approach for the long‐term planning of urban drainage systems.

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Decision making under deep uncertainty for adapting urban drainage systems to change

Cited by 26 publications

References 49 publications

Economic Evaluation of Adaptation Pathways for an Urban Drainage System Experiencing Deep Uncertainty

Economic Evaluation of Adaptation Pathways for an Urban Drainage System Experiencing Deep Uncertainty

Preparing for Sea-Level Rise through Adaptive Managed Retreat of a New Zealand Stormwater and Wastewater Network

The development of adaptation pathways for the long‐term planning of urban drainage systems

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