Decision Support Using Causation Knowledge Base

Nakamura, Kiyohiko; Iwai, Shigehisa; Sawaragi, Tetsuo

doi:10.1109/tsmc.1982.4308910

Cited by 56 publications

(44 citation statements)

References 6 publications

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“…Many studies have used cognitive mapping to look at decision-making as well as to examine people's perceptions of complex social systems (Axelrod, 1976;Bauer, 1975;Bougon et al, 1977;Brown, 1992;Carley and Palmquist, 1992;Cossette and Audet, 1992;Hart, 1977;Klein and Cooper, 1982;Malone, 1975;Montazemi and Conrath, 1986;Nakamura et al, 1982;Rappaport, 1979;Roberts, 1973).…”

Section: History Of Cognitive Mappingmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…One individual could only consider between 30 and 40 concepts in a session lasting between 20 and 40 min because of combinatorial explosion. In another example, Nakamura et al (1982) obtained 152 concepts and 265 connections from five documents on traffic problems in Japan. Since people have shared concepts, as the number of concepts increase the rate of increase in total number of concepts will quickly approach zero.…”

Section: Sample Sizementioning

confidence: 99%

“…It was not necessary to have an expert versed in all aspects of the problem, but rather to select many experts from different disciplines to capture the system. Nakamura et al (1982) found that joining of cognitive maps generated useful information that was not captured by individual maps. Statistically, large numbers of independent and identically distributed (i.i.d.)…”

Section: Social Cognitive Mapsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…For instance, Nakamura et al (1982) condensed 152 variables coded from five documents into 16 categories. In our research we have also used qualitative aggregation to subjectively combine variables into categories.…”

Section: Qualitative Aggregationmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Ecological models based on people’s knowledge: a multi-step fuzzy cognitive mapping approach

Özesmi

2004

Ecological Modelling

743

635

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Many types of ecological or environmental problems would benefit from models based on people's knowledge. To create ecological models with both expert and local people's knowledge, a multi-step fuzzy cognitive mapping approach is proposed. A cognitive map can be made of almost any system or problem. Cognitive maps are qualitative models of a system, consisting of variables and the causal relationships between those variables. We describe how our cognitive mapping research has been used in real environmental management applications. This research includes examining the perceptions of different stakeholders in an environmental conflict, obtaining the perceptions of different stakeholders to facilitate the development of participatory environmental management plans, and determining the wants and desires for resettlement of people displaced by a large scale dam project. Based on our research, which involved six separate studies, we have found that interviewees complete their cognitive maps in 40-90 min on average. These maps contain an average of 23 ± 2 S.D. variables with 37 ± 3 S.D. connections. People generally put more forcing functions into their maps than utility variables. Fuzzy cognitive mapping offers many advantages for ecological modeling including the ability to include abstract and aggregate variables in models, the ability to model relationships which are not known with certainty, the ability to model complex relationships which are full of feedback loops, and the ease and speed of obtaining and combining different knowledge sources and of running different policy options.

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Section: History Of Cognitive Mappingmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Sample Sizementioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Social Cognitive Mapsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Qualitative Aggregationmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Ecological models based on people’s knowledge: a multi-step fuzzy cognitive mapping approach

Özesmi

2004

Ecological Modelling

743

635

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“…Causal cognitive mapping is a technique to capture the mental models of decision makers and stakeholders (F. Robert Axelrod, 1976;Bryson, Ackermann, Eden, & Finn, 2004;K. Carley & Palmquist, 1992;Nakamura, Iwai, & Sawaragi, 1982). Causal cognitive maps were first invented by Axelrod (R. , who used them to analyze and predict the decisions of political elites.…”

Section: Theoretical Background On Fcmmentioning

confidence: 99%

Multi-Perspective Technology Assessment to Improve Decision Making: A Novel Approach Using Fuzzy Cognitive Mapping for a Large-Scale Transmission Line Upgrade

Sperry¹

2000

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The objective of the technology assessment (TA) process is to understand problematic and undesirable consequences from the development and application of technology. TA advocates for the engagement of technology experts and stakeholders to understand the effects of technology. However, TA is often criticized that the decision-making This novel approach supports both stages of the process: capturing expert and stakeholder perspectives in cognitive maps, and then using FCM for assessment and decision-making. The methodology shows how experts and stakeholders perceive the value or harm of a technology alternative, which stakeholders share the same perspectives, and how these perspectives change over time. The methodology also shows the degree to which expert and stakeholder perspectives are in support or in conflict with the organizational objectives to help avoid the direct and indirect ii consequences associated with the decision. Finally, the methodology shows how new or changing perspectives by experts and stakeholders affect the outcome of the decision to improve system knowledge.

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A relational model of cognitive maps

Chaib-draa¹,

Desharnais²

1998

International Journal of Human-Computer Studies

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Decision Support Using Causation Knowledge Base

Cited by 56 publications

References 6 publications

Ecological models based on people’s knowledge: a multi-step fuzzy cognitive mapping approach

Ecological models based on people’s knowledge: a multi-step fuzzy cognitive mapping approach

Multi-Perspective Technology Assessment to Improve Decision Making: A Novel Approach Using Fuzzy Cognitive Mapping for a Large-Scale Transmission Line Upgrade

A relational model of cognitive maps

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