INTRODUCTIONThis article examines the impact of three rival decision-making theories on disaggregated US state budgetary output data. This study tests the impact of the different theoretical explanations on expenditure levels. The three budget models tested are the garbage can theory, incrementalism, and rational approaches. The garbage can theory of budgeting argues that decisions are determined by the random mix of problems, solutions, participants, and choice opportunities in the decision-making process. Incrementalism focuses on expenditure decisions based on marginality and regularity from previous spending outputs. Finally, rational approaches to budgeting advocate that decision-makers think prospectively by systematically weighing policy options. The rational approaches we focus on here are program budgeting, Zero Based Budgeting (ZBB), and biennial budgeting (representing more strategic long-term decision-making in comparison to annual budgeting). These theories are tested on resource allocations, the winners and losers in the budget game. The history of their existence is traced by an examination of budget process outputs over time and across the fifty states.The literature on budgetary theories has the tendency to concentrate on one theory to the exclusion of others. For example, the recent trend is to examine performance based budgeting at various levels of government. 1 This is insufficient since state budgetary decision-makers obviously use more than one method (Botner, 1985). This is demonstrated in Table 1, with survey evidence compiled by these authors from the National Association of State Budget Officers (NASBO) from 1989 to 1996. This survey evidence indicates that most states use some combination of incrementalism and rational methods such as program and zero based budgeting. 2 Therefore, to downplay incrementalism when we speak about budget approaches seems entirely inadequate.A recent study has examined quantitatively the impact of incrementalism on sub national budget outputs (Boyne et al., 2000). There is also an extensive body of