Decline in climate resilience of European wheat

Kahiluoto, Helena; Kaseva, Janne; Bálek, Jan; Olesen, Jørgen E.; Ruiz‐Ramos, Margarita; Gobin, Anne; Kersebaum, Kurt Christian; Takáč, Jozef; Ruget, Françoise; Ferrise, Roberto; Bezak, Pavol; Capellades, Gemma; Dibari, Camilla; Mäkinen, Hanna; Nendel, Claas; Ventrella, Domenico; Rodríguez, Alfredo; Bindi, Marco; Trnka, Miroslav

doi:10.1073/pnas.1804387115

Cited by 177 publications

(139 citation statements)

References 50 publications

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“…European elite wheat cultivars are poorly endowed against probable stressors of the future, as speculated in a recent article [46] and rejected by [47,48], is not supported by our data.…”

Section: Breeding Progress In Seedling Resistancecontrasting

confidence: 81%

Breeding Progress in Seedling Resistance against Various Races of Stripe and Leaf Rust in European Bread Wheat

2019

Crop Breed Genet Genom.

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Background: Stripe and leaf rust are major constraints of wheat production with substantial impacts on grain yield. Population dynamics of both pathogens and the emergence of new virulent races have resulted in relentless efforts related to wheat breeding to improve resistance during the last decades.Methods: To evaluate the breeding progress achieved with respect to racespecific resistance, a set of nine isolates of the two rust pathogens have been tested in seedling assays on a panel of 191 elite winter wheat cultivars representing wheat breeding in Europe between 1966 and 2013.Results: Significant differences in the resistance of wheat cultivars concerning both pathogens have been detected by means of two-way ANOVA. Isolates as well as genotype × isolate interaction had a significant effect for both pathogens. Breeding progress, resulting in an increased seedling resistance, has been achieved against all nine isolates over the past five decades. The slope of progress was steeper for leaf rust than for stripe rust isolates. Progress against the highly common leaf rust isolate "4171" and" the stripe rust isolate "Warrior(-)" was strongest. Conclusions:The study reveals that a steady increase in seedling resistance was achieved during the past five decades. An additive contribution of these isolate specific R genes after breakdown has been hypothesised.

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“…European elite wheat cultivars are poorly endowed against probable stressors of the future, as speculated in a recent article [46] and rejected by [47,48], is not supported by our data.…”

Section: Breeding Progress In Seedling Resistancecontrasting

confidence: 81%

Breeding Progress in Seedling Resistance against Various Races of Stripe and Leaf Rust in European Bread Wheat

2019

Crop Breed Genet Genom.

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“…The assessment of area affected by temperature extremes exposes another challenging factor related to shrinking of temporal window of opportunity for favorable temperatures between last frost and early heat stress, prominent especially in eastern and northern European climates. Spatial comparison of present-day farming systems to their future analogs and the exchange of knowledge between farming systems in different European agro-climate zones can suggest suitable adaptation strategies and technologies to be tested and validated (Kahiluoto et al, 2018).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Observed Northward Migration of Agro‐Climate Zones in Europe Will Further Accelerate Under Climate Change

et al. 2019

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This study focuses on the northward shift of homogeneous agro-climate zones in Europe analyzed for the observed past and projected climate conditions for the next decades. Statistical cluster analysis is used to derive eight main agro-climatic zones driven by two agro-meteorological indicators, namely, active temperature sum and thermal growing season length. The northward shift of homogeneous agro-climate zones and the corresponding change of crop growth suitability are analyzed together with the change of exposure of crops to temperature-related climate extremes during the growing season. Gradual warming over Europe has contributed to a lengthening of the growing season and an increased active temperature accumulation, accompanied by more frequent occurrence of warm extreme climate events. Using a set of five high-resolution regional climate scenarios, we calculate that a major part of Europe will be affected by further northward climate zone migration. In the next decades, the migration of agro-climatic zones in Eastern Europe may reach twice the velocity observed during the period 1975-2016. Several regions of the Mediterranean may lose suitability to grow specific crops in favor of northern European regions. This indicator-based assessment suggests that the potential advantages of the lengthening of the thermal growing season in northern and eastern Europe are often outbalanced by the risk of late frost and increased risk of early spring and summer heat waves.

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“…As such, any efforts to this end must take into account that a focus on developing the few traits desired for high-yielding crop varieties can often come with a loss in climate resilience (e.g. European wheat [38]).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Sensitivity of grain yields to historical climate variability in India

Davis

Chhatre

Rao

et al. 2019

Environ. Res. Lett.

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Fluctuations in temperature and precipitation influence crop productivity across the planet. With episodes of extreme climate becoming increasingly frequent, buffering crop production against these stresses is a critical aspect of climate adaptation. In India, where grain production and diets are closely linked, national food supply is sensitive to the effect of climate variability on monsoon grain production. Here we quantitatively examine the historical relationship between interannual variations in temperature and rainfall and rainfed yield variability for five monsoon crops -rice and four alternative grains (finger millet, maize, pearl millet, and sorghum). Compared to rice, we find that alternative grains are significantly less sensitive to climate variation and generally experience smaller declines in yield under climate extremes. However, maximizing harvested area allocations to coarse grains (i.e. holding maize production constant) reduced grain production by 12.0 Mtonnes (−17.2%) under drought conditions and 12.8 Mtonnes (−18.0%) during non-drought years (non-drought). Increasing the harvested area allocated to all alternative grains (i.e. including maize) can enhance production by +39.6% (drought) and by +37.0% (non-drought). These alternative grains therefore offer promise for reducing variations in Indian grain production in response to climate shocks, but avoiding grain production shortfalls from increased alternative grains will require yield improvements that do not compromise their superior climate resilience.

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Decline in climate resilience of European wheat

Cited by 177 publications

References 50 publications

Breeding Progress in Seedling Resistance against Various Races of Stripe and Leaf Rust in European Bread Wheat

Breeding Progress in Seedling Resistance against Various Races of Stripe and Leaf Rust in European Bread Wheat

Observed Northward Migration of Agro‐Climate Zones in Europe Will Further Accelerate Under Climate Change

Sensitivity of grain yields to historical climate variability in India

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