Decoding the dynamics of poleward shifting climate zones using aqua-planet model simulations

Yang, Hu; Lu, Jian; Wang, Qiang; Shi, Xiaoxu; Lohmann, Gerrit

doi:10.1007/s00382-021-06112-0

Cited by 15 publications

(14 citation statements)

References 71 publications

(111 reference statements)

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“…2g, h ) and reinvigorated heat transport to the high latitudes 5 , 63 . Ekman transport converged surface warm waters to the subtropics 75 , lowering the ΔSST between the WPWP and the East China Sea (Fig. 2f ).…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 98%

Thermal coupling of the Indo-Pacific warm pool and Southern Ocean over the past 30,000 years

Zhang

Wang

et al. 2022

Nat Commun

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The role of the tropical Pacific Ocean and its linkages to the southern hemisphere during the last deglacial warming remain highly controversial. Here we explore the evolution of Pacific horizontal and vertical thermal gradients over the past 30 kyr by compiling 340 sea surface and 7 subsurface temperature records, as well as one new ocean heat content record. Our records reveal that La Niña-like conditions dominated during the deglaciation as a result of the more intense warming in the western Pacific warm pool. Both the subsurface temperature and ocean heat content in the warm pool rose earlier than the sea surface temperature, and in phase with South Pacific subsurface temperature and orbital precession, implying that heat exchange between the tropical upper water column and the extratropical Southern Ocean facilitated faster warming in the western Pacific. Our study underscores the key role of the thermal coupling between the warm pool and the Southern Ocean and its relevance for future global warming.

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Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 98%

Thermal coupling of the Indo-Pacific warm pool and Southern Ocean over the past 30,000 years

Zhang

Wang

et al. 2022

Nat Commun

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“…The ocean-sea ice component of AWIESM1 is the first release of the Finite Element Sea Ice-Ocean Model (FESOM1.4), while AWIESM2 employs an upgraded version (FESOM2) that builds upon FESOM1.4 but with a dynamical core based on the finite volume formulation. Both model versions have been validated (Sidorenko et al 2015;Rackow et al 2018;Sidorenko et al 2019) and widely used in understanding the climate changes in the past (Yang et al 2022b;Lohmann et al 2020;Kageyama et al 2021b;Brierley et al 2020;Otto-Bliesner et al 2021;Renoult et al 2020), present and future (Yang et al 2020b(Yang et al , 2022aShi and Lohmann 2017). More details of the AWIESM1 and AWIESM2 components are described in the following sub-sections.…”

Section: A Model Descriptionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Simulated Mid-Holocene and Last Interglacial Climate Using Two Generations of AWI-ESM

et al. 2022

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Numerical simulations allow us to gain a comprehensive understanding of the underlying mechanisms of past, present and future climate changes. The mid-Holocene and the last interglacial were the two most recent warm episodes of Earth’s climate history and are the focus of paleoclimate research. Here, we present results of MH and LIG simulations with two versions of the state-of-the-art earth system model AWI-ESM. Most of the climate changes in MH and LIG compared to the pre-industrial era are agreed upon by the two model versions, including: (1) enhanced seasonality in surface temperature which is driven by the redistribution of seasonal insolation; (2) northward shift of the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) and tropical rain belt; (3) a reduction in annual mean Arctic sea ice concentration; (4) weakening and northward displacement of the Northern Hemisphere Hadley Circulation, which is related to the decrease and poleward shift of the temperature gradient from the subtropical to the equator in the Northern Hemisphere; (5) westward shift of the Indo-PacificWalker Circulation due to anomalous warming over the Eurasia and North Africa during boreal summer; and (6) expansion and intensification of Northern Hemisphere summer monsoon rainfall, with the latter being dominated by the dynamic component of moisture budget, i.e., the strengthening of wind circulation. However, the simulated responses of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) in the two models yield different results for both the LIG and the MH. AMOC anomalies between the warm interglacial and pre-industrial periods are associated with changes in North Atlantic westerly winds and stratification of the water column at the North Atlantic due to changes in ocean temperature, salinity and density.

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“…Thus, the outputs of GCMs have become an indispensable source of information to many sectors and research fields, most prominently for studying climate system dynamics (e.g. Dai and Deng, 2022;Yang et al, 2022), evolution of past climates (e.g. Otto-Bliesner et al, 2017) and climate change projections (e.g.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Projected changes in mean annual cycle of temperature and precipitation over the Czech Republic: Comparison of CMIP5 and CMIP6

2022

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The multi-model ensembles like CMIP5 or CMIP6 provide a tool to analyze structural uncertainty of climate simulations. Currently developed regional and local climate change scenarios for the Czech Republic assess the uncertainty based on state-of-the-art Global Climate Model (GCM) and Regional Climate Model (RCM) ensembles. Present study focuses on multi-model spread of projected changes in long-term monthly means and inter-annual variability of monthly mean minimum, mean and maximum daily air temperature and monthly mean precipitation. We concentrate in more detail on the simulation of CNRM-ESM2-1, the driving GCM for the convection permitting ALADIN-Climate/CZ simulation contributing to the local scenarios in very high resolution. For this GCM, we also analyze a mini-ensemble with perturbed initial conditions to evaluate the range of internal climate variability. The results for the Czech Republic reveal minor differences in model performance in the reference period whereas quite substantial inter-generation shift in projected future change towards higher air temperature and lower summer precipitation in CMIP6 comparing to CMIP5. One of the prominent features across GCM generations is the pattern of summer precipitation decrease over central Europe. Further, projected air temperature increase is higher in summer and autumn than in winter and spring, implying increase of thermal continentality of climate. On the other hand, slight increase of winter precipitation and tendency towards decrease of summer precipitation lead to projected decrease of ombric continentality. The end of 21st century projections also imply higher probability of dry summer periods, higher precipitation amounts in the cold half of the year and extremely high temperature in summer. Regarding the CNRM-ESM2-1, it is often quite far from the multi-model median. Therefore, we strictly recommend to accompany any analysis based on the simulation of nested Aladin-CLIMATE/CZ with proper uncertainty estimate. The range of uncertainty connected to internal climate variability based on one GCM is often quite large in comparison to the range of whole CMIP6 ensemble. It implies that when constructing climate change scenarios for the Central Europe region, attention should be paid not only to structural uncertainty represented by inter-model differences and scenario uncertainty, but also to the influence of internal climate variability.

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Decoding the dynamics of poleward shifting climate zones using aqua-planet model simulations

Cited by 15 publications

References 71 publications

Thermal coupling of the Indo-Pacific warm pool and Southern Ocean over the past 30,000 years

Thermal coupling of the Indo-Pacific warm pool and Southern Ocean over the past 30,000 years

Simulated Mid-Holocene and Last Interglacial Climate Using Two Generations of AWI-ESM

Projected changes in mean annual cycle of temperature and precipitation over the Czech Republic: Comparison of CMIP5 and CMIP6

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