Decomposing American immobility: Compositional and rate components of interstate, intrastate, and intracounty migration and mobility decline

Abstract

BACKGROUNDAmerican migration rates have declined by nearly half since the mid-20th century, but it is not clear why. While the emerging literature on the topic stresses the salience of shifts in the composition of the American population, estimates of the contribution of population aging, increasing diversity, rising homeownership, and other shifts vary widely. Furthermore, it is unclear whether and how compositional shifts differ in their effects on migration over different geographic scales. OBJECTIVETo gauge the contribution of compositional shifts to concomitant declines in migration over various distances, while allowing for group variations in the rates at which declines occur. METHODSDrawing on individual-level IPUMS Current Population Survey data from 1982 to 2015, I use the Oaxaca-Blinder method to decompose declines in interstate migration, intrastate migration, and intracounty mobility. RESULTSBetween a quarter and a third of declines since 1982 are attributable to aging and increasing diversity. Changing ethnoracial composition exerts a stronger influence on interstate migration, while aging has a stronger effect on local mobility. Results also reveal more dramatic declines among non-Latino Whites and those under age 35, as well as a marked delay and decline in peak mobility rates with each successive birth cohort. CONCLUSIONSResults point to social and economic shifts as the key drivers of American immobility, and the need for reorientation within the emerging literature. Future research should 1 Department of Sociology, University of Washington, Seattle, USA. E-Mail: tbfoster@uw.edu. investigate the causes of group-specific rates of decline and focus on local mobility, where declines are most concentrated and where rising immobility is most problematic.

Unequal Opportunity? Racial, Ethnic, and Gender Disparities in the Returns to Internal U.S. Migration

“…To give an initial sense of whether migration dynamics do differ across race, ethnicity, and gender, I show the proportions of migrants across race/ethnicity and gender in Table 2. As can be seen, blacks and Latinxs are less likely to migrate than whites, consistent with prior research (Foster 2017; Spring, Tolnay, and Crowder 2013), and women are slightly less likely to migrate than same-race men. These variations in the proportions of migrants across race, ethnicity, and gender help motivate an exploration of variations in the potential benefits and costs of migration for black, Latinx, and white women and men.…”

“…This is valuable because internal migration research frequently focuses on the economic trajectories of migrants as the years since the migration event increase, but rarely provides a parallel examination of the long-term outcomes of nonmigrants. Yet, nonmigrants comprise a large and growing percentage of the U.S. population (Cooke 2011; Fischer 2002; Foster 2017; Molloy, Smith, and Wozniak 2017; Spring, Tolnay, and Crowder 2013) and they are disproportionately likely to be racial/ethnic minorities (Foster 2017; Spring, Tolnay, and Crowder 2013). Exploring how nonmigrants are faring over a long duration is therefore valuable for determining the economic well-being of nonmigrants over time, for comparing the outcomes of migrants and nonmigrants, and for better understanding how migration shapes racial/ethnic and gender disparities in outcomes.…”

Infrastructures of immobility: enabling international distance education students in Africa tonotmove

“…Thus, treating mobility and immobility as a binary is reductionist (van der Velde and van Naerssen 2011). Perceptions of the oppositional nature of mobility and immobility are, therefore, increasingly being challenged (Foster 2017;Ryser et al 2017).…”

Distinguishing tempo and ageing effects in migration

“…Consequently, it is reasonable to assume on conceptual grounds that period measures of migration can also be distorted by tempo effects. Although evidence is limited, it suggests a progressive shift of the migration-age schedule to older ages in a number of countries, including the United Kingdom (Lomax and Stillwell 2018), the United States (Foster 2017), and Australia (Bell et al 2018b). The age patterns of migration have been shown to closely mirror the age structure of life-course transitions, in particular exit from education, entry to the labour market, and union and family formation (Bernard, Bell, and Charles-Edwards 2014), and there is ample evidence that the timing of the transitions to adulthood have been delayed over the last few decades (Billari and Liefbroer 2010).…”

“…While aggregate trends in migration levels have been widely documented (Champion, Cooke, and Shuttleworth 2018), research on age-specific migration trends has attracted until recently comparatively less scholarly attention, with a few notable exceptions (Rogers and Rajbhandary 1997;Plane and Rogerson 1991). In recent years, a growing body of literature has developed that suggests a progressive shift of migration-age schedules to older ages in a number of countries, including the United Kingdom (Lomax and Stillwell 2018), the United States (Foster 2017), and Australia (Bell et al 2018b). This delay is to be expected given that the age patterns of migration closely mirror the age structure of the life course (Bernard, Bell, and Charles-Edwards 2014) because key transitions to adulthood -including exit from education and entry into the labour force, union formation, and childbirth -often trigger a change of residence (Bernard, Bell, and Charles-Edwards 2016;Mulder 1993;Pelikh and Kulu 2018;Vidal and Lutz 2018).…”