Distinguishing tempo and ageing effects in migration

Abstract

BACKGROUND Despite emerging evidence of a delay of migration to older ages, few studies have considered its impact on overall migration levels. OBJECTIVE This paper argues that there are two possible implications of delayed migration on overall migration levels: (1) a tempo effect leading to a temporary underestimation of the level of migration in the observed period data and (2) a migration ageing effect leading to a reduction of higher-order moves because the exposure to migration is shifted to older ages when the probability of moving is lower. METHODS Combining hypothetical scenarios with empirical evidence from a range of countries in Europe, North America, Australia, and China, the paper demonstrates the relevance of tempo and ageing effects to migration analysis and proposes a framework for conceptualising these processes. RESULTS Our analysis suggests that both tempo and ageing effects are likely to occur if the general trend is towards later ages at migration. We show, however, that all-move data such as those collected in censuses is not suitable to analyse tempo effects because changes in migration behaviour are order specific. Drawing on retrospective survey data, we show that in 25 of 26 European countries considered in this paper, individuals who are late in leaving the parental home are less likely to progress to the second move and, as a result, report a lower number of migrations in adulthood than early movers.

Is Migration a Learned Behavior? Understanding the Impact of Past Migration on Future Migration

“…In other words, the earlier young adults start migrating, the more they will migrate throughout their adult lives. The age at first adult move appears to reduce the level of adult mobility by decreasing the likelihood of progression to the second move (Bernard and Pelikh 2019). Collectively, these findings suggest that migration is the result of a cumulative process that unfolds over individuals’ entire life‐courses, rather than a series of discrete events independent from one another.…”

Age at First Migration and Educational Attainment of Young Adults in Indonesia

“…The age schedule for the first adult migration plays an essential role in shaping an individual's migration career (Bernard, 2022b). For example, a later age at first migration is negatively associated with the number of migrations during one's lifetime (Bernard, 2017(Bernard, , 2022aBernard & Pelikh, 2019). Although the mean age of all moves is relatively similar across regions and population groups, the mean age at first migration varies considerably across countries.…”

Внутренняя Миграция В России В 2010-Е Гг. – Макрорегиональные Особенности

“…Прежде всего, во многих развитых странах (США, Австралии и др.) исследователи заняты выяснением многообразных причин сокращения внутренней миграции (Sunganani et al 2020;McCollum et al 2020;Bernard, Pelikh 2019), этот вопрос представляет, судя по публикациям, большую исследовательскую задачу. При этом аналитики, занятые сравнительным изучением внутренней миграции в разных странах, сообщают, что в отдельных странах Европы годовая интенсивность внутренней миграции растет (Alvarez, Bernard, Lieske 2021).…”