Decoupling analysis and scenario prediction of agricultural CO2 emissions: An empirical analysis of 30 provinces in China

Jiang, Jiaqi; Zhao, Tao; Juan, Wang

doi:10.1016/j.jclepro.2021.128798

Cited by 57 publications

(18 citation statements)

References 31 publications

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“…The agriculture emissions-economy literature can be divided in several broad topics: decoupling studies (Han et al, 2018;Hossain and Chen, 2021;Jiang et al, 2021), estimations of the environmental Kuznets curve (Qiao et al, 2019;Ridzuan et al, 2020), and regression analysis of drivers and effects (Appiah et al, 2018;Lin and Xu, 2018;Wang et al, 2020). Other authors have also addressed the issue of greenhouse gas emissions through metafrontier analysis (Zhang and Choi, 2013;Lin and Fei, 2015;Zhong et al, 2021).…”

Section: Literature Reviewmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…This research fills the gap in the literature which focuses on decoupling analysis of agriculture output or production in restricted geographical areas, focusing mostly on emission studies in China; there are few studies in the European countries (Han et al, 2018;Hossain and Chen, 2021;Jiang et al, 2021). Moreover, most studies regarding decoupling analysis study the relationship between CO 2 emissions from energy use and economic growth (Roinioti and Koroneos, 2017;Yan et al, 2017).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 97%

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Decoupling of CO2, CH4, and N2O agriculture emissions in the EU

Andrei¹,

Avram²,

Băncescu

et al. 2022

Front. Environ. Sci.

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This research addresses the problem of CO2, CH4, and N2O emissions in the EU for the 2008–2018 period, and their contributing factors, through extensive and complex analysis. The research incubated in the manuscript answers the question of whether new state members managed to catch up with old state members regarding technology innovation and mitigation of N2O emissions from agriculture activities. The methodology used includes Tapio decoupling index and the metafrontier non-radial Malmquist N2O emission performance index. The research considers short-term, medium-term, and long-term decoupling analyses. Results suggest a shift of decoupling status is worse for the 2013–2018 period compared to the 2008–2013 period which should concern low-carbon agriculture policy-makers. Also, it was noticed an increase in total-factor N2O emission performance for the 2008–2018 period. New state members managed to catch up with old state members regarding technology innovation and mitigation of N2O emissions from agricultural activities; however, not all countries managed to do so. For example, Romania has experienced an efficiency loss due to a technology change and from this perspective, Romania should address first managing N2O and CO2 emissions. The findings extend the traditional framework of investigating the effects of CO2, CH4, and N2O in agriculture and highlight the necessity of addressing environmental aspects from a broader perspective of the policymakers and in developing innovative decoupling indexes. The research investigation is reporting from a post-transition country by prioritizing the measures to be implemented.

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Section: Literature Reviewmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 97%

Decoupling of CO2, CH4, and N2O agriculture emissions in the EU

Andrei¹,

Avram²,

Băncescu

et al. 2022

Front. Environ. Sci.

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…Regarding predictions of future ACE reduction potential, research approaches can be broadly categorized into two types. The first involves using methods such as the Kaya constant equation, the logarithmic mean Divisia index, or the stochastic impacts by regression on population, affluence, and technology (STIRPAT) model to determine ACE influencing factors and combining them with scenario analysis to predict ACEs [34][35][36]. The second type utilizes system modeling methods such as grey prediction or autoregressive integrated moving averages to directly forecast ACEs based on historical data [37,38].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Inventory, Dynamic Evolution, and Scenario Projections of Agricultural Carbon Emissions in Shandong Province, China

Gao,

Hu,

Bao

2024

Sustainability

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The reduction in agricultural carbon emissions (ACEs) in Shandong Province is essential to China’s carbon peak and carbon neutrality objectives. In this regard, we constructed an ACE inventory for Shandong Province at a resolution of 1 km × 1 km, integrating the emission factor method with geographic information system (GIS) technology. Building upon this, we explored the dynamic evolution patterns of ACEs using kernel density estimation and conditional probability density estimation. Additionally, long short-term memory networks were trained to predict ACEs under various scenarios. The results showed that: (1) ACEs in Shandong Province exhibited two stages of change, i.e., “rise and decline”. Notably, 64.39% of emissions originated from the planting industry. The distribution of emissions was closely correlated with regional agricultural production modes. Specifically, CO2 emissions were predominantly distributed in crop cultivation areas, while CH4 and N2O emissions were primarily distributed in livestock breeding areas. The uncertainty of the emission inventory ranged from −12.04% to 10.74%, mainly caused by emission factors. (2) The ACE intensity of various cities in Shandong Province is decreasing, indicating a decoupling between ACEs and agricultural economic growth. Furthermore, the emission disparities among different cities are diminishing, although significant spatial non-equilibrium still persists. (3) From 2022 to 2030, the ACEs in Shandong Province will show a continuous downward trend. By 2030, the projected values under the baseline scenario, low-carbon scenario I, and low-carbon scenario II will be 6301.74 × 104 tons, 5980.67 × 104 tons, and 5850.56 × 104 tons. The low-carbon scenario reveals greater potential for ACE reduction while achieving efficient rural economic development and urbanization simultaneously. This study not only advances the methodology of the ACE inventory but also provides quantitative references and scientific bases for promoting low-carbon, efficient, and sustainable regional agriculture.

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“…Except it, the rapid population growth of the world in current times will provide nominal growth in daily consumption (food) demand in the future. This rising demand for food will drive the growth of CO 2 emissions from the agriculture sectors (Jiang et al, 2021), which will further worsen global climate change. In addition, regarding agriculture, climate change, production, and energy consumption, Rehman et al (2020) analyzed the pollution emissions of China's agriculture sector.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Agriculture-related energy consumption, food policy, and CO2 emission reduction: New insights from Pakistan

Raza

Zhongpan

Wang

2023

Front. Environ. Sci.

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Fossil fuel energy consumption in the agriculture sector of Pakistan has created serious climate change issues, adding extremely to CO2 emissions, economic growth, and food production. The current research has investigated the most carbon-emitting agriculture factors based on human activities, such as transportation, land, multiple crops, distribution, and consumption under various crops. The study objective is to provide a roadmap for decarbonizing the food supply chain and its current framework toward food policy. The different machines and frameworks applied in agricultural farming can mitigate the CO2 emissions of the agriculture sector if renewable energy technologies (RETs) and renewable energy sources are organized with proper agrarian loads. The major concerns of this paper show a roadmap among a) CO2 emissions in the food supply chain and per capita CO2 emissions, b) food chain activities in the agriculture farming process, c) the agriculture output units and energy consumption, and d) the decarbonization of traditional agriculture and sustainable development in the agriculture sector. The analysis shows that the RETs and mitigation frameworks can lessen the CO2 emissions of farming depending on the type of farm and energy utilization. Finally, the present research highlights possibilities and opportunities for gaining CO2 emissions in crop production linked to Pakistan’s good management practices. In respect to agriculture efficiency and productivity, the government should increase the water, energy, and modern machinery for huge productivity and sustainability. Further policies are provided below.

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Decoupling analysis and scenario prediction of agricultural CO2 emissions: An empirical analysis of 30 provinces in China

Cited by 57 publications

References 31 publications

Decoupling of CO2, CH4, and N2O agriculture emissions in the EU

Decoupling of CO2, CH4, and N2O agriculture emissions in the EU

Inventory, Dynamic Evolution, and Scenario Projections of Agricultural Carbon Emissions in Shandong Province, China

Agriculture-related energy consumption, food policy, and CO2 emission reduction: New insights from Pakistan

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