Decrease in snowfall/rainfall ratio in the Tibetan Plateau from 1961 to 2013

Wang, Jie; Zhang, Mingjun; Wang, Shengjie; Ren, Zhengguo; Che, Yue; Fang, Qiang; Qu, Deye

doi:10.1007/s11442-016-1326-8

Cited by 69 publications

(62 citation statements)

References 22 publications

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“…Nonetheless, the S/P has shown a significant decreasing trend across the New England states, which is related to the North Atlantic Oscillation and the Pacific-North America index 9 . Similar decreasing trends in snowfall are found in Switzerland 5 , the continental United States 10,11 , the Tibetan Plateau 8,12 , and the Chinese Tienshan Mountains 3 . Krasting et al 35 indicated that annual snowfall is projected to decrease across much of the Northern Hemisphere during the 21 st century under the RCP4.5 scenarios, but that increases are projected for higher latitudes.…”

Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 63%

Declining snowfall fraction in the alpine regions, Central Asia

Chen

et al. 2020

Sci Rep

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in a warming climate, precipitation (p) is less likely to occur as snowfall (S). change in the snowfall fraction (S/P) is currently assumed not only influences the accumulation and ablation of glaciers, but also influences the streamflow and water resources significantly in mountainous regions. However, until now, most studies have focused on precipitation magnitude and its frequency changes, while seasonal shifts in precipitation types have been mostly neglected. This paper employs the threshold temperature method in combination with multi-source dataset (APHRODITE, CPC and meteorological stations) analysis to determine snowfall proportions in precipitation in the tienshan Mountains, central Asia, during 1960-2017. The results indicated that temperature-induced precipitation shifting from snow to rain. The S/P experienced an overall declining trend, increasing at a rate of 0.6%/decade prior to the mid-1990s, followed by a downward trend at a rate of −0.5%/decade. The S/P decreased mainly at low and middle altitudes (between 1500 and 3500 m). At higher altitudes (over 3500 m), the magnitudes of the decreased S/P ratios were small or even increased due to the temperature always being below freezing. Decreases in S/P are always associated with decreases in annual streamflow in the glacier/ snow melt recharged rivers.Precipitation over alpine regions can occur in different phases of liquid and solid. Snowfall, as the most important component of solid precipitation, is a key part of hydrological processes in the mountains during the cold season. It is also regarded as an indicator that reflects climatic change due to its high sensitivity to alterations in temperature and precipitation 1,2 . The snowfall fraction (S/P) is the ratio of snowfall (S) to precipitation (P), with changes in the S/P depending on alterations in snow and precipitation amounts 3,4 . As there may exist inconsistent changes in snowfall and precipitation, the snowfall fraction can be used as another effective indicator to reflect climate change 5 .Most of the previous studies use temperature or wet-bulb temperature and relative humidity to define thresholds which demarcate the solid and liquid types of precipitation 6-8 . As global temperatures continue to warm, many regions experienced a decreased S/P. The S/P has shown a significant decreasing trend across the New England states 9 , Switzerland 5 , the continental United States 10,11 , the Tibetan Plateau 8,12 , and the Chinese Tienshan Mountains 3 . The S/P has a strong influence on mountainous hydrological processes. The performance of water resource management systems is highly related to changes in the S/P in the regions where the land surface hydrological process is dominated by snow accumulation in winter and melt in spring 6 . Decreases in the S/P can lead to increases in water loss during winter or early spring, whereas increases in the S/P indicate that much more water is being stored as snows until the temperature exceeds the melt point 4,13 . Two widely anticipated changes in the hydr...

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Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 63%

Declining snowfall fraction in the alpine regions, Central Asia

Chen

et al. 2020

Sci Rep

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“…Both snow depth and the onset date of snow cover establishment are important parameters in relation to the permafrost change. Warming climate would advance spring and delay winter, which shortens duration of snow cover and induces later establishment of snow cover in cold season (Wang et al, ; Zhang et al, ; Zhao & Wu, ). Meanwhile, the decreasing snow depth on QTP would enhance efficient thermal exchange between air and soil.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Projected Changes in Permafrost Active Layer Thickness Over the Qinghai‐Tibet Plateau Under Climate Change

Zhao

2019

Water Resources Research

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Climate warming would increase the active layer thickness (ALT) of permafrost, which can cause changes in the hydrological cycle, ecological processes, and carbon flux in cold regions. However, changes in permafrost ALT due to climate warming remain poorly quantified, which limits our understanding of environmental change in cold regions. In this study, the Lund‐Postam‐Jena dynamic vegetation model is coupled to the Kudryavtsev model to examine changes in permafrost ALT on the Qinghai‐Tibet Plateau (QTP) under climate change scenarios based on the representative concentration pathways (RCPs). The results suggest that the permafrost ALT on the QTP would exhibit a significant increasing trend under the climate change scenarios, and a large increment of ALT may occur in the northwestern QTP. In the near‐term (2011–2040), the change in ALT on the QTP is different under the RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP6.0, and RCP8.5 emissions scenarios, with an increment of 5–30 cm. In the mid‐term (2041–2070), ALT would deepen further with an obvious reduction in permafrost area, while the increase in ALT decreases from south to north. In the long‐term (2071–2099), the average increment of ALT would be greater than 30 cm under the RCP4.5, RCP6.0, and RCP8.5 scenarios, and the increment in ALT increases from south to north, with a remarkable retreat in permafrost area from south to north.

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“…Precipitation, however, shows a more varied pattern and has decreased in some parts of the plateau but increased in others [ Kang et al ., ; You et al ., ]. A series of studies have suggested negative effects of warming on snowfall in most areas of the plateau [ Bhutiyani et al ., ; Mir et al ., ; Wang et al ., ]. However, there are regional differences in snow sensitivity to warming because of contrasts in meteorological controls.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Changes of snowfall under warming in the Tibetan Plateau

2017

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Snowfall is a critical part of the hydrological system in high‐altitude regions and strongly impacted by climate change. This study uses a threshold temperature method to estimate spatial and temporal variations of snowfall at 71 stations across the Tibetan Plateau from 1960 to 2014. Regional air temperature and precipitation have increased by 0.039°C/yr, and 1.43 mm/yr, respectively. While warming rates have been fairly uniform across the plateau, spatial variations in snowfall trends are large, with decreases in the eastern and northeastern areas but increases at higher elevations in the center and west. Region‐wide snowfall increased during 1961–1990 and 1971–2000 but decreased in 1981–2010 and 1991–2014. Wintertime snowfall has increased, but summer snowfall has decreased. These divergent trends can be explained because maximum snowfall is recorded at temperatures between 1 and 2°C. Above/below this threshold snowfall usually decreases/increases with increased warming. Although maximum snowfall temperature is a key factor to understand future snowfall changes, concurrent influences such as changing moisture sources and atmospheric circulation patterns require further research.

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Decrease in snowfall/rainfall ratio in the Tibetan Plateau from 1961 to 2013

Cited by 69 publications

References 22 publications

Declining snowfall fraction in the alpine regions, Central Asia

Declining snowfall fraction in the alpine regions, Central Asia

Projected Changes in Permafrost Active Layer Thickness Over the Qinghai‐Tibet Plateau Under Climate Change

Changes of snowfall under warming in the Tibetan Plateau

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