Deep Integration with the EU: Impact on Selected ENP Countries and Russia

Maliszewska, Maryla; Orlova, Iryna; Taran, Svitlana

doi:10.1007/978-3-642-21093-8_3

Cited by 5 publications

(4 citation statements)

References 4 publications

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“…Similarly to the previous findings in the literature (see, e.g., ECORYS & CASE-Ukraine 2007; Emerson et al, 2006;Maliszewska, Orlova, & Taran, 2009;Movchan & Giucci, 2011;Olekseyuk, 2016;Olekseyuk & Balistreri, 2017), the DCFTA between Ukraine (with Crimea as a part of its territory, i.e., scenario DCFTA 1) and the EU is welfare increasing for both partners (8.63% and 0.09%, respectively), with corresponding improvements in aggregate income measured by real GDP. The EU gains are relatively small, given that the embodied liberalization applies to a very small part of the EU economy.…”

Section: Effects Of the Dcftasupporting

confidence: 88%

“…Ukraine's Deep and Comprehensive Free Trade Agreement (DCFTA) with the EU has been broadly evaluated in the literature due to its implementation in January 2016. Various studies (see, e.g., ECORYS & CASE-Ukraine 2007; Emerson et al, 2006;Maliszewska, Orlova, & Taran, 2009;Movchan & Giucci, 2011;Olekseyuk, 2016;Olekseyuk & Balistreri, 2017). quantify the impact of this policy reform and suggest welfare gains for Ukraine ranging from 3% to 12%.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Ukraine's unconsidered losses from the annexation of Crimea: What should we account for in the DCFTA forecasts?

Olekseyuk

Schürenberg‐Frosch

2018

Review Development Economics

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In March 2014 Crimea unilaterally declared its independence from Ukraine and joined the Russian Federation. The separation of a part of a state's territory and economy is an interesting matter to examine. The economy of Ukraine has not only shrunk, but also changed its structure as Crimea had a quite distinct production pattern compared to the rest of Ukraine. Moreover, policy measures initialized before the separation may have different effects once applied only to a part of the former economy. This paper proposes a strategy to model the separation of part of an economy and its inclusion into another country and applies this strategy to the case of Crimea, Ukraine, and Russia. Having constructed a model for the new geographical and economic situation, we reinvestigate the possible effects of a Deep and Comprehensive Free Trade Agreement between Ukraine and the EU and compare the results for the situation with Crimea as part of Ukraine. We find that the annexation of Crimea leads to severe economic losses for Ukraine which are partly overproportional compared to Crimea's economic size. These negative effects can be compensated by implementing the DCFTA with the EU as we also show in our model results.

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Section: Effects Of the Dcftasupporting

confidence: 88%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Ukraine's unconsidered losses from the annexation of Crimea: What should we account for in the DCFTA forecasts?

Olekseyuk

Schürenberg‐Frosch

2018

Review Development Economics

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“…The interaction term for openness to trade reveals a stronger growth effect in EaP (Model (6) in Table A2). Such an effect might be related to the beneficial effects of non-tariff barriers and improved access to the EU market after the ENP was established (Maliszewska et al, 2011;Montalbano & Nenci, 2014). In addition, as displayed in the summary Table B2 (Appendix B), the average values between the two groups is slightly larger in the EaP countries, at 100% compared to 96% in CA.…”

Section: Conflictsmentioning

confidence: 96%

Growth and convergence in Eastern Partnership and Central Asian countries since the dissolution of the USSR—embarking on different development paths?

Încalţărău

Sharipov

Pascariu

et al. 2021

Development Policy Review

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Background: Since the dissolution of the USSR, the former Soviet countries not included in the enlargement of the European Union (EU) have experienced divergent development. While the so-called Eastern Partnership (EaP) countries established closer ties with the EU, the Central Asian (CA) states mostly gravitated towards Russia and China. Thus, despite belonging to a similar economic and political system, the two groups of countries pursued transition to a market-oriented economy and fostering development with varying results, creating a neat contrast to facilitate the study of patterns of growth and disparity. Purpose: Based on an analysis covering more than two decades, the article explores the growth paths of the EaP and CA countries. Given their bumpy economic performances, the article aims, first, to show how these affected economic disparities among them. Second, it aims to identify the factors which most influenced different development trajectories. Approach and methods: Through analysis of panel data, the article seeks to explain long-term economic growth in terms of endowments of production factors, macroeconomic stabilization and transition reforms, external conditions and institutional development. Sources of growth are identified to reveal how they affected income per capita and shaped convergence in the two groups of countries. Findings: The EaP and CA countries show different growth patterns since the end of communism. While the EaP economies shrank more during the 1990s compared to the CA group, they bounced back faster during the 2000s. The EaP economies, being more closely connected to the EU, were more affected by the Great Recession of 2007-2009 than those of the CA. Overall, economic disparities between these sets of countries have slightly increased. Physical capital, foreign direct investment, natural resources, openness to trade and the transition reforms significantly explain economic 2 of 30 | INCALTARAU eT AL. | INTRODUCTIONAfter the dissolution of the Soviet Union, the post-Soviet countries not included in the enlargement of the European Union (EU) have experienced different regional contexts of transition and development. While the Eastern Partnership (EaP) countries established closer ties with the EU, 1 the Central Asian (CA) states mostly gravitated around Russia and China. 2 The two groups of countries share some common in-group features which have distinguished themselves from other parts of the former Soviet Union, but, at the same time, they have displayed contrasting evolutions, depending on the regional context in which they are located.On the one hand, the five CA republics have inherited a landlocked geographic location, at the heart of Eurasia, in the proximity of such regional powers as Russia and China. In general, the Soviet experience has largely shaped the CA countries. First, under the USSR, CA started a long journey to statehood which is nowadays closely connected to an unresolved debate, namely whether the Soviet transformation of CA was a neocolonial or a modern...

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“…The studies by Maliszewska, Orlova & Taran (2011) and Movchan & Shportyuk (2011) do not contain estimates of welfare effects for the EU.…”

mentioning

confidence: 99%

The Free Trade Agreement between the EU and Ukraine: Conceptual Background, Economic Context and Potential Impact

Dąbrowski

Taran

2012

SSRN Journal

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Deep Integration with the EU: Impact on Selected ENP Countries and Russia

Cited by 5 publications

References 4 publications

Ukraine's unconsidered losses from the annexation of Crimea: What should we account for in the DCFTA forecasts?

Ukraine's unconsidered losses from the annexation of Crimea: What should we account for in the DCFTA forecasts?

Growth and convergence in Eastern Partnership and Central Asian countries since the dissolution of the USSR—embarking on different development paths?

The Free Trade Agreement between the EU and Ukraine: Conceptual Background, Economic Context and Potential Impact

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