Smart grids require flexible data driven forecasting methods. We propose clustering tools for bottom-up short-term load forecasting. We focus on individual consumption data analysis which plays a major role for energy management and electricity load forecasting. The two first sections are dedicated to the industrial context and a review of individual electrical data analysis. We are interested in hierarchical time-series for bottom-up forecasting. The idea is to disaggregate the signal in such a way that the sum of disaggregated forecasts improves the direct prediction. The 3-steps strategy defines numerous super-consumers by curve clustering, builds a hierarchy of partitions and selects the best one minimizing a forecast criterion. Using a nonparametric model to handle forecasting, and wavelets to define various notions of similarity between load curves, this disaggregation strategy applied to French individual consumers leads to a gain of 16% in forecast accuracy. We then explore the upscaling capacity of this strategy facing massive data and implement proposals using R, the free software environment for statistical computing. The proposed solutions to make the algorithm scalable combines data storage, parallel computing and double clustering step to define the super-consumers.Keywords: Clustering; Forecasting; Hierarchical Time-Series; Individual Electrical Consumers; Scalable; Short Term; Smart Meters; Wavelets
Industrial contextEnergy systems are facing a revolution and many challenges. On the one hand, electricity production is moving to more intermittency and complexity with the increase of renewable energy and the development of small distributed production units such as photovoltaic panels or wind farms. On the other hand, consumption is also changing with plug-in (hybrid) electric vehicles, heat pumps, the development of new technologies such as smart phones, computers, robots that often come with batteries. To maintain the electricity quality, energy stakeholders are developing smart grids (see [1,2] This results into new opportunities such as local optimisation of the grid, demand side management and smart control of storage devices. Exploiting the smart grid efficiently requires advanced data analytics and optimisation techniques to improve forecasting, unit commitment, and load planning at different geographical scales. Massive data sets are and will be produced as Preprints (www.preprints.org) | NOT PEER-REVIEWED | Posted: