Defense Resource Planning Under Uncertainty: An Application of Robust Decision Making to Munitions Mix Planning

Abstract

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Proposed Analytical Products for the Air Force Warfighting Integration Capability: Developing and Presenting Options for Future Force Design and Capability Development

“…Blue forces will need to be more robust and resilient to changing conditions in the threat environment than they appear to be at present. This step of AFWIC's analysis thus requires careful thinking about the scenarios in which to assess the vulnerabilities of current and potential future forces operating under current and future CONOPS (Davis, 2012;Lempert et al, 2016). It is not enough to restrict analysis to a small number of defense planning scenarios that might not stress alternative designs to reveal fundamental weaknesses.…”

“…Examples from Prior RAND Work Davis, 2014, andLempert et al, 2016, provide examples of analyses envisioned in this section.…”

Air Force Capability Development Planning: Analytical Methods to Support Investment Decisions

“…RDM is an iterative, quantitative, and participatory decision support method designed to address the challenges of planning under deep uncertainty (Bankes, 1993;Lempert, Popper, and Bankes, 2003;Groves and Lempert, 2007;Lempert et al, 2013Lempert et al, , 2016. Rather than using models and data to assess policies under a single set of assumptions, RDM runs models over hundreds to thousands of different sets of assumptions to understand how alternative plans, strategies, operations, or technologies perform under many plausible conditions.…”

Application of the patient rule induction method to detect hydrologic model behavioural parameters and quantify uncertainty

“…The patient rule induction method (PRIM; Friedman & Fisher, ) is a tool that is used to find a region of interest using a discrete sample and then define it in an interpretable way using a set of hypercubes (or boxes). PRIM is a well‐known method in the field of decision‐making under deep uncertainty conditions and is mostly known as a part of robust decision‐making (Bryant & Lempert, ; Lempert, ; Lempert et al, ; Lempert, Popper, & Bankes, ; Shortridge & Guikema, ) framework. However, despite the ability of PRIM to find a region of interest using a discrete sample, this tool has not been tested for parameter uncertainty analysis of hydrological models.…”