Deforestation trends and spatial modelling of its drivers in the dry temperate forests of northern Pakistan — A case study of Chitral

Abstract

Deforestation is a major environmental challenge in the mountain areas of Pakistan. The study assessed trends in the forest cover in Chitral tehsil over the last two decades using supervised land cover classification of Landsat TM satellite images from 1992, 2000, and 2009, with a maximum likelihood algorithm. In 2009, the forest cover was 10.3% of the land area of Chitral (60,000 ha). The deforestation rate increased from 0.14% per annum in 1992-2000 to 0.54% per annum in 2000-2009, with 3,759 ha forest lost over the 17 years. The spatial drivers of deforestation were investigated using a cellular automaton modelling technique to project future forest conditions. Accessibility (elevation, slope), population density, distance to settlements, and distance to administrative boundary were strongly associated with neighbourhood deforestation. A model projection showed a further loss of 23% of existing forest in Chitral tehsil by 2030, and degradation of 8%, if deforestation continues at the present rate. Arandu Union Council, with 2212 households, will lose 85% of its forest. Local communities have limited income resources and high poverty and are heavily dependent on non-timber forest products for their livelihoods. Continued deforestation will further worsen their livelihood conditions, thus improved conservation efforts are essential.

Quantifying the biophysical and socioeconomic drivers of changes in forest and agricultural land in South and Southeast Asia

“…In Bangladesh, the mean urban and rural population densities (variable 17–19 in Figure a) have negative impacts on this change, which is also different from most other countries. This may be because regions with higher population have more urban land, which crowds out other land types such as forest; therefore, there is less forest area that can be converted to agricultural land (Shehzad et al, ).…”

“…Although both deforestation and afforestation (or reforestation) processes are observed, the net forest area decreased from 319 million ha in 1990 to 292 million ha in 2015 (FAO, ). The drivers of these changes are diverse, including socioeconomic factors, such as the increasing population and economic growth (Lopez & Galinato, ; Shehzad, Qamer, Murthy, Abbas, & Bhatta, ), and biophysical factors, such as climate change (Islam, Miah, & Inoue, ). However, a quantitative spatially explicit analysis of the relationships between the biophysical and socioeconomic drivers and LULCC at the regional scale in SSEA is still lacking.…”

Scenario-Based Simulation on Dynamics of Land-Use-Land-Cover Change in Punjab Province, Pakistan

“…For example, substantial conversion of high quality cultivated lands to urban areas, deforestation, abstraction and extraction of river waters. Consequently, land use changes-especially deforestation in northern mountainous areas-badly affected the environment through changes in the hydrological cycle that led to soil erosion, siltation and floods [54][55][56][57][58]. …”

Environmental risk modelling and potential sand fly vectors of cutaneous leishmaniasis in Chitral district: a leishmanial focal point of mount Tirich Mir, Pakistan

“…As a result, outbreaks of CL and visceral leishmaniasis (VL) have appeared for the first time in urban environments of Latin America . Deforestation is a major environmental challenge in the mountain areas of Pakistan, especially Chitral . Our results clearly define a zone of transmission for CL concentrated in Chitral's deforested lowland valleys.…”