Abstract:The Himalayan mountain forest ecosystem has been degrading since the British ruled the area in the 1850s. Local understanding of the patterns and processes of degradation is desperately required to devise management strategies to halt this degradation and provide long-term sustainability. This work comprises a satellite image based study in combination with national expert validation to generate sub-district level statistics for forest cover over the Western Himalaya, Pakistan, which accounts for approximately 67% of the total forest cover of the country. The time series of forest cover maps (1990, 2000, 2010) reveal extensive deforestation in the area. Indeed, approximately 170,684 ha of forest has been lost, which amounts to 0.38% per year clear cut or severely degraded during the last 20 years. A significant increase in the rate of deforestation is observed in the second half of the study period, where much of the loss occurs at the western borders along with Afghanistan. The current study is the first systematic and comprehensive effort to map changes to forest cover in Northern Pakistan. Deforestation hotspots identified at the sub-district level provide important insight into deforestation patterns, which may facilitate the development of appropriate forest conservation and management strategies in the country.

Deforestation is a major environmental challenge in the mountain areas of Pakistan. The study assessed trends in the forest cover in Chitral tehsil over the last two decades using supervised land cover classification of Landsat TM satellite images from 1992, 2000, and 2009, with a maximum likelihood algorithm. In 2009, the forest cover was 10.3% of the land area of Chitral (60,000 ha). The deforestation rate increased from 0.14% per annum in 1992-2000 to 0.54% per annum in 2000-2009, with 3,759 ha forest lost over the 17 years. The spatial drivers of deforestation were investigated using a cellular automaton modelling technique to project future forest conditions. Accessibility (elevation, slope), population density, distance to settlements, and distance to administrative boundary were strongly associated with neighbourhood deforestation. A model projection showed a further loss of 23% of existing forest in Chitral tehsil by 2030, and degradation of 8%, if deforestation continues at the present rate. Arandu Union Council, with 2212 households, will lose 85% of its forest. Local communities have limited income resources and high poverty and are heavily dependent on non-timber forest products for their livelihoods. Continued deforestation will further worsen their livelihood conditions, thus improved conservation efforts are essential.