Degrowth scenarios for biodiversity? Some methodological steps and a call for collaboration

Abstract

Economic growth contributes to biodiversity loss and does not necessarily contribute to wellbeing. Thus, when developing biodiversity scenarios, we should explore societal futures where economic growth is not a pre-condition. However, it is not clear how and by whom a degrowth scenario for biodiversity could be developed. This is so because there are different approaches to develop scenarios (some of them nascent) and because degrowth is only loosely connected to biodiversity questions. In this perspective paper we explain how the Nature Futures Framework (NFF) could be used to generate a degrowth scenario for biodiversity, Nature's Contributions to People (NCP) and Good Quality of Life (GQL) based on multiple societal values. We present key methodological avenues of such an endeavour, including: (i) generating degrowth visions for biodiversity, NCP and GQL; (ii) identifying the leverage points and characterizing the transition; (iii) identifying relevant social-ecological feedbacks and selecting indicators; and (iv) modelling biodiversity, NCP and GQL along a degrowth transition. We frame our proposal in current efforts to improve scenario development across the biodiversity and climate communities. We end with a call for collaboration between natural and social sciences, quantitative and qualitative approaches, and northern and southern perspectives. This collaboration could lead to a community of practice that tests and improves the scenario in national and international science-policy interfaces.

Essential Biodiversity Variables and Essential Ecosystem Services Variables for the Implementation of Biodiversity Conservation and Sustainable Development Goals

“…The scientific community including the GEO BON will continue to evaluate the needs of society as expressed in national and international goals and conventions and focus the development of Essential Variables on biodiversity, ecosystems, and ecosystem services based on the latest advancements in ecological research and modelling and harmonizing key primary observations data (Fernandez, In review;. These EBV and EESV data products and indicators co-developed with stakeholders, can, inter alia, inform the UN SEEA framework in each nation's statistical and accounting systems to further streamline the monitoring systems nationwide and account for natural capital (Hein et al, 2020) in transforming growth-oriented economic model to more a sustainable and well-being oriented model (Otero et al, 2022). The IPBES scientific community synthesizing multiple knowledge systems can use the EBV and EESV data products to assess the state, trends and interactions across biodiversity, ecosystems, nature's contributions to people and various levels and sectors of the society to better understand the complex dynamics between nature and people (IPBES, 2019(IPBES, , 2016.…”