Delayed Poroelastic Triggering of the 2016 October Visso Earthquake by the August Amatrice Earthquake, Italy

Tung, S.; Masterlark, T.

doi:10.1002/2017gl076453

Cited by 43 publications

(45 citation statements)

References 47 publications

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“…The intermediate Norcia area appears to be fed by both reservoirs. This energy transfer concerns elastic stress only and does not exclude that other forms of stress transfer, such as poroelastic diffusion (Tung & Masterlark, 2018), contribute to the total stress budget and its temporal variations. This paper provides a first correlation between the evolution of elastic stress and the occurrence of relatively large seismic events in the Central Apennines.…”

Section: Journal Of Geophysical Research: Solid Earthmentioning

confidence: 99%

A Time‐Dependent Model of Elastic Stress in the Central Apennines, Italy

Zurutuza

Bertocco

2019

JGR Solid Earth

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Seismicity in the Central Apennines is characterized by normal faulting with dip NE‐SW near 45°. If the stress at the hypocenter of the 2016 Norcia (Mw = 6.5) and 2009 L'Aquila (Mw = 6.3 on the Paganica fault) earthquakes originated only from stress transfer from previous historical events, the orientation of the principal stress axes would have been inconsistent with the observed tensional regime. The additional contribution of a regional stress is thus required, but Global Navigation Satellite System geodesy provides only stress rates. We empirically estimate a time multiplier for the regional stress rate, computed with a dense Global Navigation Satellite System network, such that the principal stress axes resulting from the sum of the stress transferred by previous events and the regional stress rate multiplied by the empirical temporal scale are consistent with normal faulting, both at the L'Aquila and Norcia hypocenters. Based on a Catalogue of 36 events of magnitude larger than 5.6, we estimate the total Coulomb stress at depths and along planes parallel to those of L'Aquila and Norcia. We provide evidence of an asymmetry of the Coulomb stress leading to a stress concentration near the hypocenter of the two events just prior of the 2009 and 2016 earthquakes. This stress anomaly disappeared after the two events. Similar stress patterns are observed for earlier events, which took place in 1461 at L'Aquila, 1703 on the Montereale plain, and in 1703 at Norcia/Valnerina. The 1997 sequence of Colfiorito exhibits a similar, anisotropic Coulomb stress pattern. Other areas with a similar stress anisotropy could be seismic gaps.

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Section: Journal Of Geophysical Research: Solid Earthmentioning

confidence: 99%

A Time‐Dependent Model of Elastic Stress in the Central Apennines, Italy

Zurutuza

Bertocco

2019

JGR Solid Earth

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“…In particular, pore fluid diffusion correlates with the aftershock decay rate (Booker, ; Nur & Booker, ), and changes in postseismic pore pressure significantly influence crustal stresses in the first few months after a strong earthquake. Poroelastic stress changes well explain both the temporal and spatial distributions of the majority of aftershocks (Albano et al, ; Antonioli et al, ; Bosl & Nur, ; Hughes et al, ; Nur & Booker, ; Tung & Masterlark, ; Tung et al, ). These observations suggest that poroelastic stress changes are a significant driving mechanism for aftershock nucleation in fractured crusts.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 94%

“…Hundreds of aftershocks were recorded, with the daily number of events approximately constant for the first 10 days (Figure S1a in the supporting information). Aftershocks migrated gradually from the earthquake epicenter, suggesting a possible diffusive transient process (Chiaraluce et al, ; Tung & Masterlark, ; Walters et al, ). Nearly 2 months later (26 October), a M w 5.9 earthquake nucleated farther to the north between the towns of Ussita and Visso (Figure a).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Aftershock Rate and Pore Fluid Diffusion: Insights From the Amatrice‐Visso‐Norcia (Italy) 2016 Seismic Sequence

et al. 2019

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We developed a numerical model by using only early and unreviewed data and information related to the 2016 M w 6 earthquake in central Italy to quickly evaluate the pore pressure contribution to the aftershock release after a severe mainshock. Moreover, a computational procedure is proposed for discussing if and how such an approach could be useful in the management of a seismic crisis. The two-dimensional finite element model in this study is based on poroelastic theory and includes a planar seismogenic fault. The model geometry and parameters are based on data collected from the literature before the mainshock. The dip and depth of the seismogenic fault are based on preliminary information from focal mechanisms and related fault inversions. The fault slip is calibrated with synthetic aperture radar interferometric data, and the hydraulic properties of the medium are progressively calibrated based on routine aftershock data collected during the sequence. The procedure proposed here can be efficiently applied in a diverse range of cases depending on data availability. Typically, the available "ingredients" allow for a quick, simplified analysis to be conducted rapidly. The simulation results show that early information and routine data are useful in developing and calibrating a model that can rapidly describe the approximate temporal evolution of overpressured conditions, which represent a crucial driving mechanism in the occurrence of aftershocks. These findings highlight the need to adequately consider time-dependent poroelastic effects when modeling postseismic scenarios and predicting the spatiotemporal evolution of the stresses following a large earthquake.

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“…During the PE, an earthquake early warning system in Central Mexico successfully delivered prompt notifications to the public regarding the arrivals of vigorous strong motions (Jacobson & Stein, 2018). The success of this warning demonstrates the potentials for expanded warning systems to rapidly characterize slip distributions, aftershock, and tsunami hazards (Minson et al, 2014;Newman et al, 2011;Tung & Masterlark, 2018a, 2018cTung, Masterlark, and Dovovan, 2018). In the past, the real-time inversion for finite-fault models has been carried out with high-rate GPS data (Allen & Ziv, 2011;Colombelli et al, 2013;Crowell et al, 2012;Grapenthin et al, 2014;Li et al, 2013;Minson et al, 2014) and seismic wave data (Hayes, 2011;Hayes et al, 2015;Hsieh et al, 2016;Newman et al, 2011;Ross & Ben-Zion, 2016).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…In the past, the real-time inversion for finite-fault models has been carried out with high-rate GPS data (Allen & Ziv, 2011;Colombelli et al, 2013;Crowell et al, 2012;Grapenthin et al, 2014;Li et al, 2013;Minson et al, 2014) and seismic wave data (Hayes, 2011;Hayes et al, 2015;Hsieh et al, 2016;Newman et al, 2011;Ross & Ben-Zion, 2016). Coulomb failure stress changes and potential tsunami impacts could be computed directly from those rapid source solutions (Newman et al, 2011;Tung & Masterlark, 2018a) to provide critical information for hazard assessments and disaster mitigation.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Rapid Geodetic Analysis of Subduction Zone Earthquakes Leveraging a 3‐D Elastic Green's Function Library

Tung

Fielding

Bekaert

et al. 2019

Geophysical Research Letters

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The 2018 M7.2 Pinotepa earthquake ruptured a shallow slab section along the Middle America subduction zone. We demonstrate how a geodetic Green's function (GF) library and efficient modeling algorithm can rapidly resolve earthquake slip and contribute to early warning systems. The source is characterized with InSAR data and a finite‐element model mimicking realistic slab geometry (Slab1.0) and velocity structures (CRUST2.0) that are not considered in the conventional homogeneous (HOM)‐ or layered(1‐D)‐crust solutions. The rupture is imaged 18 min after geodetic data are downloaded to a 16‐CPU‐thread workstation. Nearby Mw8.6‐megathrust scenarios are also studied with synthetic GPS data in the Guerrero/Oaxaca area. Our results show that earthquake slip solutions are sensitive to the materials of elastic‐modeling domains. Attaining smaller misfits or sums of squared errors, models by 3‐D GFs significantly better recover coseismic displacements than those estimated with 1‐D GFs or HOM GFs at 95% confidence.

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Delayed Poroelastic Triggering of the 2016 October Visso Earthquake by the August Amatrice Earthquake, Italy

Cited by 43 publications

References 47 publications

A Time‐Dependent Model of Elastic Stress in the Central Apennines, Italy

A Time‐Dependent Model of Elastic Stress in the Central Apennines, Italy

Aftershock Rate and Pore Fluid Diffusion: Insights From the Amatrice‐Visso‐Norcia (Italy) 2016 Seismic Sequence

Rapid Geodetic Analysis of Subduction Zone Earthquakes Leveraging a 3‐D Elastic Green's Function Library

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