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We present an improved neotectonic numerical model of the complex NW Africa‐SW Eurasia plate boundary segment that runs from west to east along the Gloria Fault up to the northern Algerian margin. We model the surface velocity field and the ongoing lithospheric deformation using the most recent version of the thin‐shell code SHELLS and updated lithospheric model and fault map of the region. To check the presence versus the absence of an independently driven Alboran domain, we develop two alternative plate models: one does not include an Alboran plate; another includes it and determines the basal shear tractions necessary to drive it with known velocities. We also compare two alternative sets of Africa‐Eurasia velocity boundary conditions, corresponding to geodetic and geological‐scale averages of plate motion. Finally, we perform an extensive parametric study of fault friction coefficient, trench resistance, and velocities imposed in Alboran nodes. The final run comprises 5240 experiments, each scored to geodetic velocities (estimated for 250 stations and here provided), stress direction data, and seismic strain rates. The model with the least discrepancy to the data includes the Alboran plate driven by a basal WSW directed shear traction, slightly oblique to the westward direction of Alboran motion. We provide estimates of long‐term strain rates and slip rates for the modeled faults, which can be useful for further hazard studies. Our results support that a mechanism additional to the Africa‐Eurasia convergence is required to drive the Alboran domain, which can be related to subduction processes occurring within the mantle.

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We present a neotectonic model of ongoing lithosphere deformation and a corresponding estimate of long-term shallow seismicity across the Africa-Eurasia plate boundary, including the eastern Atlantic, Mediterranean region, and continental Europe. GPS and stress data are absent or inadequate for the part of the study area covered by water. Thus, we opt for a dynamic model based on the stress equilibrium equation; this approach allows us to estimate the long-term behavior of the lithosphere (given certain assumptions about its structure and physics) for both land and sea areas. We first update the existing plate model by adding five quasirigid plates (the Ionian Sea, Adria, Northern Greece, Central Greece, and Marmara) to constrain the deformation pattern of the study area. We use the most recent data sets to estimate the lithospheric structure. The models are evaluated in comparison with updated data sets of geodetic velocities and the most compressive horizontal principal stress azimuths. We find that the side and basal strengths drive the present-day motion of the Adria and Aegean Sea plates, whereas lithostatic pressure plays a key role in driving Anatolia. These findings provide new insights into the neotectonics of the greater Mediterranean region. Finally, the preferred model is used to estimate long-term shallow seismicity, which we retrospectively test against historical seismicity. As an alternative to reliance on incomplete geologic data or historical seismic catalogs, these neotectonic models help to forecast long-term seismicity, although requiring additional tuning before seismicity rates are used for seismic hazard purposes.