Correctional psychologists have classified risk factors for criminal recidivism into static (non--changing, non--improving) and dynamic (theoretically changeable) domains. By definition, a dynamic risk factor is a variable that can change across time, and as it changes, offenders' likelihood of recidivism must logically change in This dissertation is organized to allow readers to focus their attention on the goals relevant to their interests. Chapter 1 reviews prior literature on dynamic risk, and describes the theoretical reasons why repeatedly measuring dynamic variables should enhance decision--making within correctional supervision. Chapter 2 addresses the statistical modeling of re--assessment data by (a) describing a researcher's choice of statistical models when attempting to analyze re--assessment data, and (b) introducing the features of the Cox regression model with time--varying predictors. Chapter 3 describes the dataset used within this dissertation, as well as the measurement and procedures of the study from which the dataset was drawn.The remaining chapters address whether it is meaningful for an agency to continually re--assess offenders with a purportedly dynamic risk measure. Chapter 4 describes the initial descriptive results of the re--assessment data, and presents the basic prediction models using Cox regression with time--varying predictors. Chapter 5 specifically addresses model--building strategies for testing the hypothesis that distal assessments (i.e., initial baseline scores) will demonstrate weaker predictive validity compared to models that include more proximal assessments (i.e., re-assessments).In conclusion, Chapter 6 provides a general discussion of the results drawn from the analyses, comments on the implications of the findings, and proposes some directions for future research.
Chapter 1: Theory, Literature, and HypothesisVariables that are statistically associated with future criminal offending are termed risk factors, and the assessment of an individual's risk factors plays a critical hypothesized schemas (Simons & Burt, 2011). In turn, the schemas were related to interpretations of situations (perceived provocations and opportunities), and these interpretations were directly related to criminal delinquency . Further, Simons and Barr (2014) demonstrated that delinquents who engaged in high--quality romantic relationships in young adulthood simultaneously reduced their criminal behavior, and that simultaneous changes in social schemas could account for approximately one--third of the partnership--crime reduction effect. In summary, this set of research suggests that background features indirectly influence all stages of criminal involvement (onset, repeat offending, and cessation) through social schemas (pro--crime perspectives), which directly impact criminal action, if they are accessible to the individual in an immediate situation.