Demand Forecasting Model for Park-and-Ride Lots in King County, Washington

Abstract

As the demand for using park-and-ride lots grows, the need to accurately forecast these trips also grows. Initially, demand for park-and-ride lots was forecast using a technique that identified the draw area for each lot and estimated demand without regard to capacity. These were simplifying assumptions that are no longer appropriate with respect to current demand for park-and-ride lots. In King County, Washington, the 12 largest park-and-ride lots are currently operating at 95 percent utilization. According to a recent park-and-ride lot survey in King County, there is significant latent demand for using lots that are full. The analysis of demand for parking in park-and-ride lots in King County was developed as part of the Washington State Department of Transportation Public/Private Partnership Program for the Park-and-Ride Capacity Enhancement Project. There were 17 park-and-ride lots considered for capacity enhancement. The approach to evaluate park-and-ride lot demand uses a technique to identify intermediate stop choices, such as park-and-ride lots, as part of the overall modal choice. User and nonuser surveys were evaluated to identify the importance of specific variables, such as security or amenities. A combination of the survey results and an application of the demand forecasting model were used to estimate shifts in demand for parking from increased capacity and user fees. Several different user fees were tested and compared with stated preference results from the user and nonuser surveys. The project resulted in significantly different demand for park and ride than previous modeling efforts because of the impact of lot capacity and effects of user fees.

Improved modeling of park-and-ride transfer time: Capturing the within-day dynamics

“…More recently, Spillar (1 997) has provided a comprehensive review of park-and-ride models and techniques, including ad hoc approaches that were used in the mid-80s when land was relatively inexpensive, market shed approaches that are commonly used for evaluating individual park-and-ride sites, and advanced mathematical modeling approaches. Other efforts in park-and-ride demand modeling have largely focused on capacity constraint issues (Spiess, 1993;Hendrick and Outwater, 1998;Hull, 1998), which emphasize setting an upper bound to park-and-ride use. These models are robust in their ability to distribute park-and-ride demand to different park-and-ride stations.…”

Assessing Park-and-Ride Efficiency and User Reactions to Parking Management Strategies

“…A potential solution to address this problem is to increase the number of parking spaces; however, doing so is expensive and can be unpopular in some neighborhoods. Instead, agencies are beginning to recognize the need for other types of parking management strategies at park-and-rides to increase the number of people that are able to use the overutilized facilities to access transit (Habib et al 2013;Hendricks and Outwater 1998). Agencies are considering strategies that prioritize multiple-occupant vehicles over single-occupant vehicles (SOV) so that the same number of spaces can serve more people.…”

Modeling the Factors Influencing the Activity Spaces of Bikeshare around Metro Stations: A Spatial Regression Model

“…There is extensive literature on the combination of bicycles and the metro, and the number is growing rapidly. Multiple articles have summarized a range of bicycle-metro integration topics, including the travel characteristics of integrated bicycle-metro trips [8,10,[15][16][17], the accessibility of the bicycle-metro system [18][19][20][21], bicycle parking issues at railway stations [22,23], the bicycle-metro demand forecast [24][25][26], and the determinants of general bicycle-metro integration [8,16,[27][28][29][30]. However, the emphasis of this literature review is on the integration of bikeshare with the metro.…”