No abstract

The San Francisco Bay Area Water Transit Authority is evaluating expanded ferry service, as required by the California Legislature. As part of this process, Cambridge Systematics developed forecasts using a combination of market research strategies and the addition of nontraditional variables into the mode choice modeling process. The focus of this work was on expanding the mode choice model to recognize travelers' attitudes and different market segments. Structural equation modeling was used to simultaneously identify the attitudes of travel behaviors and the causal relationships between traveler's socioeconomic profile and traveler attitudes. Six attitudinal factors were extracted, and three of these were used to partition the ferry-riding market into eight segments. These market segments were used to estimate stated preference mode choice models for 14 alternative modes, which separated the travelers' reactions to time savings by market segment and which recognized that mode choices are different for market segments that are sensitive to travel stress or the desire to help the environment. The new mode choice models were applied within the framework of the Metropolitan Transportation Commission's regional travel model and calibrated to match modal shares, modes of access to each ferry terminal, ridership by route and time period, and person trips by mode at screening line crossings. Additional validation tests of significant changes in ferry service in recent years were used to confirm the reasonableness of the stated preference model. The model has been applied for three future year alternatives and to test the sensitivities of pricing, service changes, and alternative transit modes.

Mode choice models, Premium transit services, Stated preference, Transit awareness and familiarity, Transit service attributes, Traveler attitudes,

As the demand for using park-and-ride lots grows, the need to accurately forecast these trips also grows. Initially, demand for park-and-ride lots was forecast using a technique that identified the draw area for each lot and estimated demand without regard to capacity. These were simplifying assumptions that are no longer appropriate with respect to current demand for park-and-ride lots. In King County, Washington, the 12 largest park-and-ride lots are currently operating at 95 percent utilization. According to a recent park-and-ride lot survey in King County, there is significant latent demand for using lots that are full. The analysis of demand for parking in park-and-ride lots in King County was developed as part of the Washington State Department of Transportation Public/Private Partnership Program for the Park-and-Ride Capacity Enhancement Project. There were 17 park-and-ride lots considered for capacity enhancement. The approach to evaluate park-and-ride lot demand uses a technique to identify intermediate stop choices, such as park-and-ride lots, as part of the overall modal choice. User and nonuser surveys were evaluated to identify the importance of specific variables, such as security or amenities. A combination of the survey results and an application of the demand forecasting model were used to estimate shifts in demand for parking from increased capacity and user fees. Several different user fees were tested and compared with stated preference results from the user and nonuser surveys. The project resulted in significantly different demand for park and ride than previous modeling efforts because of the impact of lot capacity and effects of user fees.