Demanda potencial para um sistema de compartilhamento de bicicletas <i>pedelecs</i>: o caso de um campus universitário

Abstract

The objective of this study was to analyze the potential demand for a pedelec sharing system at the São Carlos campus of the University of São Paulo (USP), aiming at the displacements of students between the two campus Areas. The set of procedures developed to reach the objective has involved two steps: characterization of the target audience and analysis of the potential demand for shared pedelecs. The first step was accomplished with a questionnaire designed with a stated preference approach for identifying users' preferences regarding shared pedelecs and the bus system operated by the university. The survey results, which involved variables of weather conditions, existence of bike paths/bike lanes between the campus Areas, and occupancy rates at the USP bus stop, were subsequently used to calibrate a logit model and to develop an Artificial Neural Network (ANN). The survey data were also used in the second step of the process, in which an electronic spreadsheet was created to analyze the probabilities of choosing the pedelec alternative (instead of the bus route operated by university). The spreadsheet was also fed with meteorological data of São Carlos in the period between 2011 and 2015. Some of the obtained outcomes are highlighted in the sequence. The probability of a pedelec being chosen is almost three times higher if bike paths/bike lanes do exist than if they do not exist. The occupancy rates of the bus stop are also particularly relevant. The probability of someone choosing a pedelec nearly doubles when the bus stop is crowded. Regarding the weather conditions, the highest probabilities are observed in the Fall and Winter seasons, i. e. in the driest and coldest days. For the entire academic period comprised between 2011 and 2015, the probabilities range from 9% (empty bus stop) to 19% (full bus stop), considering the current situation (i. e. no cycleways connect the two campus Areas). In the presence of this cycling infrastructure, however, the probability goes up to 54%. Thus, the strategy of analysis conceptually developed, and made available through an electronic spreadsheet, may be an important support tool for the implementation of transport policies by the campus administration. In addition, it highlights a likely potential demand for a system of shared pedelecs.

Estudo exploratório da demanda potencial para um sistema de compartilhamento de bicicletas pedelecs

“…No Brasil, ainda é relativamente escassa a literatura sobre estimação da demanda por bicicletas (conforme discutido em Cadurin, 2016) O procedimento para avaliação da demanda potencial aqui aplicado se baseia essencialmente em um questionário, com dois blocos de questões. O primeiro bloco contém perguntas relacionadas às percepções e atitudes das pessoas a respeito de modos de transporte possíveis de serem utilizados entre as áreas do campus.…”

“…Quando há suposição de existência de ciclovias e/ou ciclofaixas em toda a extensão entre as duas Áreas do campus da USP de São Carlos e o ponto de ônibus da USP é considerado cheio, há expressivo aumento da probabilidade de escolha da bicicleta pedelec, em relação às situações em que as duas variáveis são consideradas de maneira oposta (ciclovias/ciclofaixas ausentes e ponto vazio). Mais detalhes podem ser consultados em Cadurin (2016).…”

Determinantes da adesão aos serviços de mobilidade compartilhada: uma investigação empírica no contexto brasileiro

“…A mobilidade urbana tornou-se um problema para os centros urbanos (Moura, 2017), pois o aumento do poder aquisitivo e as políticas de incentivo à compra de automóveis (Cadurin, 2016) proporcionaram dependência dos transportes individuais, necessidade de deslocamento e congestionamentos (Mello, 2008), fatores que colaboram para a maior desumanização das cidades (Cadurin, 2016).…”