Democracy and militarized interstate conflict, 1816–1965

Bremer, Stuart A.

doi:10.1080/03050629308434806

Cited by 201 publications

(123 citation statements)

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“…2 One finding in Bremer (1993) important to keep in mind in evaluations or interpretations of related work is that many explanatory factors seem to have different impacts on involvement in militarized disputes, on the one hand, and on involvement in interstate wars, on the other. For example, joint militarization has a significant and negative effect on dispute involvement, but a positive, insignificant effect on war involvement.…”

Section: In the Beginning: Bremer And His Precursorsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…In Bremer (1992), alliance ties rank second in their impact on war involvement. In Bremer (1993) (with hegemonic presence added to the model), alliance ties have no statistically significant impact at all. In Bremer's (1992) multivariate analysis, J. L. Ray the presence of one major power in a dyad has a positive, significant effect on the probability of war onset.…”

Section: In the Beginning: Bremer And His Precursorsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…So, the work by Bremer (1992Bremer ( , 1993 was important and path breaking, especially in its development of multivariate analyses of war onsets, as well as involvement in MIDs. But the results in those papers also raise several questions about the strength and even the existence of the impacts of what have become standard explanatory factors in multivariate models of interstate conflict.…”

Section: In the Beginning: Bremer And His Precursorsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…In his 1993 analysis, the presence of a major power has no significant effect. In short, the addition in Bremer (1993) of one explanatory factor to the model introduced by Bremer (1992) has several substantial consequences for the rank orderings of the explanatory variables by their "substantive" importance.…”

Section: In the Beginning: Bremer And His Precursorsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…In a later paper, Bremer (1993) includes analyses of militarized disputes as well as war onset. Bivariate analyses suggest that "dyads without joint democracy are almost 50 (e 3.905 ) times more likely to originate wars than dyads with joint democracy" (Bremer, 1993, 241).…”

Section: In the Beginning: Bremer And His Precursorsmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Constructing Multivariate Analyses (of Dangerous Dyads)

Ray

2005

Conflict Management and Peace Science

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Research in the last couple of decades or so on the proposition that democratic states have not and are not likely to fight interstate wars with each other (and are less likely to engage in militarized conflict with each other than states in general) has produced many multivariate models of international conflict and war. These models as a group have characteristic strengths and weaknesses; this paper will focus primarily on the latter. Perhaps the primary flaw in most of these models, from this writer's point of view, involves their complexity. Virtually all recent models aimed at the evaluation of the impact of regime type on interstate conflict involve a number of control variables that is sufficiently large to make it difficult to interpret statistical results. Furthermore, the control variables are often introduced for no very good reason other than that it is not possible to publish papers that rely entirely on bivariate analyses in good journals.But not all variables apparently or conceivably related to the outcome variable (such as interstate conflict) are equally good candidates for inclusion as control variables, and there are substantive distinctions between different types of control variables to which more attention would usefully be paid. This paper will briefly review the structure and evolution of multivariate models within the democratic peace literature with a view toward highlighting uncertainties and some confusion that those models produce in the aggregate. A discussion of how multivariate models of conflict might be more usefully constructed and interpreted will serve as the basis for the examination of one recently published multivariate

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Section: In the Beginning: Bremer And His Precursorsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: In the Beginning: Bremer And His Precursorsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: In the Beginning: Bremer And His Precursorsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: In the Beginning: Bremer And His Precursorsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: In the Beginning: Bremer And His Precursorsmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 3 more Smart Citations