Demografia Médica em Portugal: Análise Prospetiva

Abstract

Introduction:The study modelled the physicians predictable allocation by medical specialty, in the horizon of 2025. It was based on the physicians demographics in Portugal and through the development of different future scenarios. Material and Methods:In the study was developed a Supply Model, which represents the capacity of medical training installed in Portugal, and a Necessity Model that perspective possible futures for the provision of medical professionals. Results: Each model comprehends several scenarios, according to different context variables (introduction or not of limits to postgraduate training capacity, demographic trends, ratios recommended by Colleges Specialty ...). Discussion/Conclusion: The models comparison lead to the conclusion that the training system has the capacity to meet the needs of physicians in all scenarios developed, and it even generates a surplus of medical professionals that may not be absorbed by the healthcare system, in the horizon of 2025.

Challenges and strategies to improve the availability and geographic accessibility of physicians in Portugal

“…Since 1999, there has been a gradual rise in the numerus clausus; in 2010, it was 2.5 times higher than 15 years before [69], whereas population growth during that period was 3.5% [47]. Until 1999, Portugal had five medical schools, two in Lisbon, two in Oporto and one in Coimbra offering a total of 566 places [14, 70].…”

“…It is followed by a period of 4 to 6 years of training for a medical specialty [14, 37, 69]. There are three medical career streams: hospital-based practice (45 specialties), public health and general practice [10, 71].…”

“…There are three medical career streams: hospital-based practice (45 specialties), public health and general practice [10, 71]. The MoH defines the number of residency places in consultation with the Medical Council, depending on the available training capacity in recognized provider organizations [40, 69]. The number of residency places grew from 894 in 2006 [69] to 1569 in 2015 [72].…”

“…The MoH defines the number of residency places in consultation with the Medical Council, depending on the available training capacity in recognized provider organizations [40, 69]. The number of residency places grew from 894 in 2006 [69] to 1569 in 2015 [72]. …”

Conhecimento e competência

“…O Canadá, tal como Portugal, não formou um número suficiente de médicos [10][11] para responder às necessidades do seu crescimento, do envelhecimento e da dispersão populacional. 11 Desde Junho de 2009, o Colégio de Médicos de Família do Canadá (CFPC) propôs uma formação pós-graduada que continuasse credível, com visão de futuro e que atendesse às necessidades das comunidades, adaptável a novas exigências de saúde, da sociedade e dos sistemas.…”