Demographic aging impact on economic indicators

Didžgalvytė, Monika; Lukšaitė, Ieva

doi:10.7220/aesr.2335.8742.2014.8.2.4

Cited by 1 publication

(3 citation statements)

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“…By using VAR model and deriving impulse -response functions and analyzing Granger causality, Doran 2012found that old-age dependency ratio has a negative impact on labour productivity and real GDP of Ireland. Similar negative impact was recorded by Didžgalvytė & Lukšaitė (2014). By using regression models, the authors found that an increase in the share of population over 65 years decreases the employment and economically active population.…”

Section: E Impact Of Ageing On Labour Marketsupporting

confidence: 54%

“…e literature review suggests the most commonly used methods for investigating the interaction between population ageing, economic growth, labour market, saving and consumption. ese are OLG models, regression analysis, VAR/VECM models, statistical analysis and surveys (Hondroyiannis & Papapetrou, 2001;Burbulienė, 2006;Doran, 2012;Nagarajan et al, 2013;Garlauskaitė & Zabarauskaitė, 2015, Lisenkova et al, 2012Borsch-Supan & Winter, 2001;Ahmedova, 2007). OLG models, while very commonly used in researching ageing population e ects on macroeconomics, mostly focus on public nance, pension reforms, savings or general economic development.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…It might seem that the ageing population is a challenge faced by developed countries as a result of improving health care and living condi-tions. e issue is quite widely researched in USA (Ahmedova, 2011;Maestas, 2016), European Union (Doran, 2012;Kasnauskienė & Michnevič, 2015) and especially in Japan, where the ageing population is a very relevant topic (Oliver, 2015). However, there is an increasing number of studies regarding the ageing population, demographic shi s and their implications on economies of emerging countries as well, as these markets tend to "catch" global ageing trends quite fast ( e World Bank, 2013;Jorgensen, 2011;Hanlin, 2014).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Economic Implications of Ageing Lithuanian Population

Kasnauskienė

Andriuškaitė

2017

OMEE

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Increased life expectancy combined with declining birth rates and massive emigration flows have caused many to worry about the various impacts of an ageing population in Lithuania. This suggests a very big increase in the dependency ratio and is consequently a cause for concern about a future slowing of economic growth. However, there is little research carried out regarding economic or financial effects of this phenomenon in the country. The aim of this paper is to evaluate the impact of Lithuanian ageing population on economic variables. A new research design is implemented by using VAR and ARMAX models to compare two different approaches, treating ageing as an endogenous and exogenous variable. The authors find that old age dependency ratio has no statistically significant impact on Lithuania’s GDP growth, employment rate, final household consumption and gross national savings in the short run. The results achieved can be explained by incomplete and only short run data available for Lithuania. Also, joining the EU and other favorable economic conditions might have boosted Lithuania’s economic performance over the whole research period and significantly reduced the negative effects of ageing population. However, the impact of shifts in the structure of population age might soon come into effect, as Lithuania‘s society is gathering the pace of ageing, which is also seen in other emerging markets that are progressing toward becoming advanced.

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Section: E Impact Of Ageing On Labour Marketsupporting

confidence: 54%