Demographic Reasons for High Birth Rates in Vienna in March 1946

Abstract

The authors analyse and refute a statement that appears in memory politics debates. In their view, it is unlikely that the increase in births in Vienna in March 1946 was due mainly to the sexual assaults committed by Soviet and other soldiers. It is much more likely that the temporary increase in the number of births can be traced back to the May 1945 marriage boom. Although traditional time series analysis methods are difficult to use in this case, the authors have applied simple analytical tools that make their position plausible. The results obtained also call into question the estimations of the high number of rapes committed by the Soviets. The authors also analyse some elements of the related literature.