Demographics and aggregate household saving in Japan, China, and India

Curtis, Chadwick; Lugauer, Steven; Mark, Nelson C.

doi:10.1016/j.jmacro.2017.01.002

Cited by 73 publications

(47 citation statements)

References 36 publications

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“…Sustainable pension development is of fundamental importance to socioeconomic development, as it has a close relationship with the stimulation of local economies and government income at a macroeconomic level [6], as well as changing household saving behaviors, fertility decisions and informal transfer at a microeconomic level [7][8][9]. Encouraging an increase in the fertility rate and delaying retirement are policy measures that are commonly adopted in countries across the globe to mitigate the adverse impacts of population aging process.…”

Section: Literature Reviewmentioning

confidence: 99%

Assessing the Financial Sustainability of the Pension Plan in China: The Role of Fertility Policy Adjustment and Retirement Delay

Wang

Huang

2019

Sustainability

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Population aging is creating serious challenges for the sustainability of China’s pension system. To mitigate the adverse impact of the demographic shift, China has recently introduced fertility and retirement policy reforms. The research presented in this paper primarily evaluates the impacts of recent reforms on the financial sustainability of China’s Urban Employees’ Pension Plan (UEPP). By using the Leslie matrix and actuarial models, the financial sustainability of the UEPP from 2019 to 2070 is projected and evaluated under a set of assumed policy reform scenarios. The results indicate that an imbalance in the pension fund would occur in the early 2020s and then expand under existing policies. Fertility adjustment, retirement delay, or combination reforms would not fundamentally solve this financial crisis in the long term. When 100% of couples have a second child and the retirement age is increased to 65, the current and accumulated pension deficits would drop by 50.05–67.56% and 35.88–54.23% between 2040 and 2070, respectively. Supplementary policy measures should be designed to encourage childbearing and retirement delay, including family support policies and top-designed pension system reform policies.

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Section: Literature Reviewmentioning

confidence: 99%

Assessing the Financial Sustainability of the Pension Plan in China: The Role of Fertility Policy Adjustment and Retirement Delay

Wang

Huang

2019

Sustainability

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“…We assume that adults derive utility from their children's consumption as in the recent work of Curtis et al (2015a) and Curtis et al (2015b). Consider a cohort-representative adult aged a in period t. This adult maximizes…”

Section: Householdsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Understanding the New Normal: The Role of Demographics

Gagnon

Johannsen

López‐Salido

2016

FEDS

106

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Since the Great Recession, the U.S. economy has experienced low real GDP growth and low real interest rates, including for long maturities. We show that these developments were largely predictable by calibrating an overlapping-generation model with a rich demographic structure to observed and projected changes in U.S. population, family composition, life expectancy, and labor market activity. The model accounts for a 1¼-percentage-point decline in both real GDP growth and the equilibrium real interest rate since 1980-essentially all of the permanent declines in those variables according to some estimates. The model also implies that these declines were especially pronounced over the past decade or so because of demographic factors most-directly associated with the post-war baby boom and the passing of the information technology boom.Our results further suggest that real GDP growth and real interest rates will remain low in coming decades, consistent with the U.S. economy having reached a "new normal." JEL Codes: E17, E21, J11.

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“…Based on the life cycle hypothesis, Curtis et al studied the relationship between aging and household savings rate by constructing a family life cycle savings decision model. The conclusion was that Sustainability 2019, 11, 4349 5 of 14 population aging inhibits the household savings rate [40]. Second, the impact of aging on consumption tendency and consumption level.…”

Section: Population Aging and Consumptionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Research on the Online Consumption Effect of China’s Urbanization under Population Aging Background

et al. 2019

Sustainability

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With the development of e-commerce, online consumption-a new sustainable consumption mode-has rapidly developed. Online shopping has become an important consumption method for Chinese residents, and the era of online consumption has arrived. Urbanization is an important foundation for the development of online consumption, and its impact on online consumption is becoming increasingly important. In addition, with the decline of fertility in China, the proportion of the elderly population is increasing. As the macro background of the current economic operation of China, population aging has long been a concern of the government. However, the existing research on urbanization, population aging and online consumption is insufficient. In this context, this study is of great significance to promote the sustainable development of the online consumption mode and enrich the theory of resident consumption in the era of the network economy. In this paper, by adopting the system generalized method of moments (GMM), we conducted an empirical analysis of the relationship between urbanization, population aging, and online consumption, based on panel data from 31 provinces in China from 2007 to 2017. Furthermore, we examined the regional heterogeneity of urbanization's online consumption effect. The results reveal that, first, urbanization has a positive relationship with online consumption. Second, urbanization's online consumption effect has regional differences, with the largest positive effect being in the western area of China, the second in the eastern area of China and the smallest in the central area of China. Third, aging inhibits the development of online consumption. Specifically, it mainly includes two aspects. On the one hand, aging has a direct negative impact on online consumption. On the other hand, aging has a moderating effect on urbanization's online consumption effect, which weakens the impact of urbanization. The rising of urban residents' income has significant explanatory power to the change of online consumption in the eastern and western regions. Therefore, the policy implications are as follows: promoting the strategic transformation of urbanization, giving full play to the online consumption effect of urbanization; adjusting and improving population policy to cope with the population aging; constantly raising people's income level and enhancing consumption potential.

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Demographics and aggregate household saving in Japan, China, and India

Cited by 73 publications

References 36 publications

Assessing the Financial Sustainability of the Pension Plan in China: The Role of Fertility Policy Adjustment and Retirement Delay

Assessing the Financial Sustainability of the Pension Plan in China: The Role of Fertility Policy Adjustment and Retirement Delay

Understanding the New Normal: The Role of Demographics

Research on the Online Consumption Effect of China’s Urbanization under Population Aging Background

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