Dendrohydrology in Canada’s western interior and applications to water resource management

Sauchyn, David J.; Vanstone, Jessica; Jacques, Jeannine‐Marie St.; Sauchyn, Robert

doi:10.1016/j.jhydrol.2014.11.049

Cited by 35 publications

(32 citation statements)

References 18 publications

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“…The forward-lagged time series included suggest that the statistical model has predictive skill, as shown in previous studies (e.g., Sauchyn et al, 2015a). In this model, LYV and PAG correlated positively with same-year streamflow (0.38 and 0.43, respectively), with that of the previous year (0.53 and 0.41), and with streamflow recorded 2 years before (0.3 and 0.23).…”

Section: Reconstruction and Analysis Using Tree-ring Chronologiessupporting

confidence: 79%

“…In that paper, and in the context of Canadian water policy, these authors stated that dendrohydrological research is a legitimate source of information for water resource planning and management. Another study, which aimed to characterize long-term Athabasca River streamflow in Alberta, Canada, found that whereas a trend analysis of instrumental data depicted declining regional flows, a tree-ring reconstruction showed periods of severe and prolonged low flows not captured by the instrumental record (Sauchyn et al, 2015a); suggesting that worst-case scenarios estimated from historical gauge data likely underestimate the potential magnitudes of natural droughts in that region (Coulthard et al, 2016). Meko and Woodhouse (2011) described another application, where the Denver Water Board, the oldest and largest water supplier in the State of Colorado, USA, wanted to predict drought scenarios using reconstructions capable of capturing an episode that occurred during the 1950s as well as other more recent droughts.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Dendrohydrology and water resources management in south-central Chile: lessons from the Río Imperial streamflow reconstruction

Fernández¹,

Muñoz

González‐Reyes

et al. 2018

Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci.

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Abstract. Streamflow in south-central Chile (SCC, ∼ 37-42 • S) is vital for agriculture, forestry production, hydroelectricity, and human consumption. Recent drought episodes have generated hydrological deficits with damaging effects on these activities. This region is projected to undergo major reductions in water availability, concomitant with projected increases in water demand. However, the lack of long-term records hampers the development of accurate estimations of natural variability and trends. In order to provide more information on long-term streamflow variability and trends in SCC, here we report findings of an analysis of instrumental records and a tree-ring reconstruction of the summer streamflow of the Río Imperial (∼ 37 • 40 S-38 • 50 S). This is the first reconstruction in Chile targeted at this season. Results from the instrumental streamflow record (∼ 1940 onwards) indicated that the hydrological regime is fundamentally pluvial with a small snowmelt contribution during spring, and evidenced a decreasing trend, both for the summer and the full annual record. The reconstruction showed that streamflow below the average characterized the post-1980 period, with more frequent, but not more intense, drought episodes.We additionally found that the recent positive phase of the Southern Annular Mode has significantly influenced streamflow. These findings agree with previous studies, suggesting a robust regional signal and a shift to a new hydrological scenario. In this paper, we also discuss implications of these results for water managers and stakeholders; we provide rationale and examples that support the need for the incorporation of tree-ring reconstructions into water resources management.

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Section: Reconstruction and Analysis Using Tree-ring Chronologiessupporting

confidence: 79%

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Dendrohydrology and water resources management in south-central Chile: lessons from the Río Imperial streamflow reconstruction

Fernández¹,

Muñoz

González‐Reyes

et al. 2018

Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci.

Self Cite

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“…The forward lagged time series included suggest that the statistical model has predictive skill, as shown in previous studies (e.g. Sauchyn et al (2015a)). …”

supporting

confidence: 70%

“…River streamflow in Alberta, Canada, found that whereas a trend analysis of instrumental data depicted declining regional flows, a tree-ring reconstruction showed periods of severe and prolonged low flows not captured by the instrumental record (Sauchyn et al, 2015a). This strongly suggests that worst case scenarios estimated from historical gauge data likely underestimate the 10 potential magnitudes of natural droughts in that region (Coulthard et al, 2016).…”

mentioning

confidence: 99%

Dendrohydrology and water resources management in South-Central Chile: Lessons from the Río Imperial streamflow reconstruction

Fernández¹,

Muñoz²,

González‐Reyes³

et al. 2017

Preprint

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Abstract. Streamflow in South-Central Chile (SCC, ∼35 o S-42 o S) is vital for agriculture, forestry production, hydroelectricity, and human consumption. Recent drought episodes have generated hydrological deficits with damaging effects on these activities. This region is projected to undergo major reductions in water availability, concomitant with projected increases in water demand. However, the lack of long-term records hampers the development of accurate estimations of natural variability and trends. In order to provide more information on long-term streamflow variability and trends in SCC, here we report findings 5 of an analysis of instrumental records and a 296-year tree-ring reconstruction of the summer streamflow of the Río Imperial (∼37 o 40'S-38 o 50'S). This is the first reconstruction in Chile targeted at this season. Results from the instrumental streamflow record (∼1940 onwards) indicated that the hydrological regime is fundamentally pluvial with a small snowmelt contribution during spring, and evidenced a decreasing trend, both for the summer and the full annual record. The reconstruction showed that streamflow below the average characterized the post-1980 period, with more frequent, but not more intense, drought episodes. 10We additionally found that the recent positive phase of the Southern Anular Mode has significantly influenced streamflow. These findings agree with previous studies, suggesting a robust regional signal and a shift to a new hydrological scenario. In this paper, we also discuss the implications of these results for water managers and stakeholders; we provide rationale and examples that support need for the incorporation of tree-ring reconstructions into water resources management.

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“…A similar tree-ring reconstruction of annual streamflow for the Oldman River in western Canada was developed for this paper using methods described in Sauchyn et al (2014). This proxy hydrometric time series, spanning 1377-2010, is plotted in Fig.…”

Section: Climate Variabilitymentioning

confidence: 99%

Exposure of Rural Communities to Climate Variability and Change: Case Studies from Argentina, Colombia and Canada

Sauchyn

Upegui

Masiokas

et al. 2016

Climate Change Management

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This paper presents results from studies of exposure to climate change and extreme events in the Mendoza River Basin in western Argentina, the Chinchiná River basin in the Colombian Andes, and the Oldman River basin and Swift Current Creek watershed in the Canadian Prairies. These case studies are a major component of an international research project: "Vulnerability and Adaptation to Climate Extremes in the Americas" (VACEA). This project is very much interdisciplinary; with social and natural science providing context and direction for research in the other realm of scholarship, producing insights that very likely would not arise from a more narrow disciplinary perspective. A large number of interviews with local actors revealed that agricultural producers and local officials recognize their high degree of exposure and sensitivity to climate variability and extreme weather events, although they generally do not associate this with climate change. Case studies of exposure demonstrate that the perceptions of the local actors are consistent with the nature of the regional hydroclimatic regimes. In all four river basins, climate variability between years and decades masks any regional expression of global climate change. These modes of periodic variability dominate the paleoclimate of past centuries and the recorded hydroclimate of recent decades. The exposure variables examined in this paper, indices of stream flow, snowpack, water excess and deficit, vary in coherence with the characteristic frequencies of large-scale ocean-atmosphere circulation patterns, specifically the ENSO and PDO. Projections of the future states of these variables require the use of climate 23 models that are able to simulate the internal variability of the climate system and the teleconnections between ocean-atmosphere oscillations and regional hydroclimate.

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Dendrohydrology in Canada’s western interior and applications to water resource management

Cited by 35 publications

References 18 publications

Dendrohydrology and water resources management in south-central Chile: lessons from the Río Imperial streamflow reconstruction

Dendrohydrology and water resources management in south-central Chile: lessons from the Río Imperial streamflow reconstruction

Dendrohydrology and water resources management in South-Central Chile: Lessons from the Río Imperial streamflow reconstruction

Exposure of Rural Communities to Climate Variability and Change: Case Studies from Argentina, Colombia and Canada

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