Density dependence and phenological mismatch: consequences for growth and survival of sub-arctic nesting Canada Geese

Brook, Rodney W.; Leafloor, James O.; Abraham, Kenneth F.; Douglas, David C.

doi:10.5751/ace-00708-100101

Cited by 36 publications

(72 citation statements)

References 61 publications

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“…(), and a study of sub‐arctic‐nesting Canada Geese ( Branta canadensis ) using similar NDVI data is presented in Brook et al. (). We assumed that the median day of year when NDVI 50 was attained for all vegetation was a reasonable proxy for the phenology of goose forage species alone, as have others (Brook et al.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 98%

Decadal declines in avian herbivore reproduction: density‐dependent nutrition and phenological mismatch in the Arctic

Ross

Alisauskas

Douglas

et al. 2017

Ecology

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113

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A full understanding of population dynamics depends not only on estimation of mechanistic contributions of recruitment and survival, but also knowledge about the ecological processes that drive each of these vital rates. The process of recruitment in particular may be protracted over several years, and can depend on numerous ecological complexities until sexually mature adulthood is attained. We addressed long-term declines (23 breeding seasons, 1992-2014) in the per capita production of young by both Ross's Geese (Chen rossii) and Lesser Snow Geese (Chen caerulescens caerulescens) nesting at Karrak Lake in Canada's central Arctic. During this period, there was a contemporaneous increase from 0.4 to 1.1 million adults nesting at this colony. We evaluated whether (1) density-dependent nutritional deficiencies of pre-breeding females or (2) phenological mismatch between peak gosling hatch and peak forage quality, inferred from NDVI on the brood-rearing areas, may have been behind decadal declines in the per capita production of goslings. We found that, in years when pre-breeding females arrived to the nesting grounds with diminished nutrient reserves, the proportional composition of young during brood-rearing was reduced for both species. Furthermore, increased mismatch between peak gosling hatch and peak forage quality contributed additively to further declines in gosling production, in addition to declines caused by delayed nesting with associated subsequent negative effects on clutch size and nest success. The degree of mismatch increased over the course of our study because of advanced vegetation phenology without a corresponding advance in Goose nesting phenology. Vegetation phenology was significantly earlier in years with warm surface air temperatures measured in spring (i.e., 25 May-30 June). We suggest that both increased phenological mismatch and reduced nutritional condition of arriving females were behind declines in population-level recruitment, leading to the recent attenuation in population growth of Snow Geese.

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Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 98%

Decadal declines in avian herbivore reproduction: density‐dependent nutrition and phenological mismatch in the Arctic

Ross

Alisauskas

Douglas

et al. 2017

Ecology

Self Cite

113

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“…By adjusting phenology, individuals can time life-history events so that peak food demands of developing young coincide with peak prey availability (Bronson, 1985;Durant, Hjermann, Ottersen, & Stenseth, 2007;Visser, Holleman, & Gienapp, 2006). However, organisms within different trophic levels may respond to changes in their environment at different rates (Cohen, Lajeunesse, & Rohr, 2018;Thackeray et al, 2016), potentially resulting in phenological mismatches between predators and their prey (Both, Asch, Bijlsma, Burg, & Visser, 2009;Brook, Leafloor, Abraham, & Douglas, 2015;Doiron, Gauthier, & Lévesque, 2015;Durant et al, 2007;Gaston, Gilchrist, Mallory, & Smith, 2009;Harrington, Woiwod, & Sparks, 1999;Visser et al, 2006;Visser, Noordwijk, Tinbergen, & Lessells, 1998).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Phenological mismatch in Arctic‐breeding shorebirds: Impact of snowmelt and unpredictable weather conditions on food availability and chick growth

Saalfeld

McEwen

Kesler

et al. 2019

Ecology and Evolution

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The ecological consequences of climate change have been recognized in numerous species, with perhaps phenology being the most well‐documented change. Phenological changes may have negative consequences when organisms within different trophic levels respond to environmental changes at different rates, potentially leading to phenological mismatches between predators and their prey. This may be especially apparent in the Arctic, which has been affected more by climate change than other regions, resulting in earlier, warmer, and longer summers. During a 7‐year study near Utqiaġvik (formerly Barrow), Alaska, we estimated phenological mismatch in relation to food availability and chick growth in a community of Arctic‐breeding shorebirds experiencing advancement of environmental conditions (i.e., snowmelt). Our results indicate that Arctic‐breeding shorebirds have experienced increased phenological mismatch with earlier snowmelt conditions. However, the degree of phenological mismatch was not a good predictor of food availability, as weather conditions after snowmelt made invertebrate availability highly unpredictable. As a result, the food available to shorebird chicks that were 2–10 days old was highly variable among years (ranging from 6.2 to 28.8 mg trap−1 day−1 among years in eight species), and was often inadequate for average growth (only 20%–54% of Dunlin and Pectoral Sandpiper broods on average had adequate food across a 4‐year period). Although weather conditions vary among years, shorebirds that nested earlier in relation to snowmelt generally had more food available during brood rearing, and thus, greater chick growth rates. Despite the strong selective pressure to nest early, advancement of nesting is likely limited by the amount of plasticity in the start and progression of migration. Therefore, long‐term climatic changes resulting in earlier snowmelt have the potential to greatly affect shorebird populations, especially if shorebirds are unable to advance nest initiation sufficiently to keep pace with seasonal advancement of their invertebrate prey.

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“…Geese are observed to fledge fewer goslings in years with greater mismatch between nesting dates and vegetation phenology, especially when eggs hatch late (relative to the vegetation) and young growing birds are deprived of the seasonal peak in highquality forage (Brook et al 2015;Doiron et al 2015). Caribou calves <1 month in age, however, have higher survival rates in years with earlier snowmelt (Griffith et al 2002), although all resident grazing species in the Arctic (e.g., caribou, reindeer, muskox, voles, etc.)…”

Section: Ecological Responses To Changing Seasonalitymentioning

confidence: 99%

Drivers and Environmental Responses to the Changing Annual Snow Cycle of Northern Alaska

Cox

Stone

Douglas

et al. 2017

Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society

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Linkages between atmospheric, ecological, and biogeochemical variables in the changing Arctic are analyzed using long-term measurements near Utqiaġvik (formerly Barrow), Alaska. Two key variables are the date when snow disappears in spring, as determined primarily by atmospheric dynamics, precipitation, air temperature, winter snow accumulation, and cloud cover, and the date of onset of snowpack in autumn that is additionally influenced by ocean temperature and sea ice extent. In 2015 and 2016 the snow melted early at Utqiaġvik owing mainly to anomalous warmth during May of both years attributed to atmospheric circulation patterns, with 2016 having the record earliest snowmelt. These years are discussed in the context of a 115-yr snowmelt record at Utqiaġvik with a trend toward earlier melting since the mid-1970s (–2.86 days decade–1, 1975–2016). At nearby Cooper Island, where a colony of seabirds, black guillemots, have been monitored since 1975, timing of egg laying is correlated with Utqiaġvik snowmelt with 2015 and 2016 being the earliest years in the 42-yr record. Ice out at a nearby freshwater lagoon is also correlated with Utqiaġvik snowmelt. The date when snow begins to accumulate in autumn at Utqiaġvik shows a trend toward later dates (+4.6 days decade–1, 1975–2016), with 2016 being the latest on record. The relationships between the lengthening snow-free season and regional phenology, soil temperatures, fluxes of gases from the tundra, and to regional sea ice conditions are discussed. Better understanding of these interactions is needed to predict the annual snow cycles in the region at seasonal to decadal scales and to anticipate coupled environmental responses.

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Density dependence and phenological mismatch: consequences for growth and survival of sub-arctic nesting Canada Geese

Cited by 36 publications

References 61 publications

Decadal declines in avian herbivore reproduction: density‐dependent nutrition and phenological mismatch in the Arctic

Decadal declines in avian herbivore reproduction: density‐dependent nutrition and phenological mismatch in the Arctic

Phenological mismatch in Arctic‐breeding shorebirds: Impact of snowmelt and unpredictable weather conditions on food availability and chick growth

Drivers and Environmental Responses to the Changing Annual Snow Cycle of Northern Alaska

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