Dependence of economic impacts of climate change
on anthropogenically directed pathways

Takakura, Jun’ya; Fujimori, Shinichiro; Hanasaki, Naota; Hasegawa, Tomoko; Hirabayashi, Yukiko; Honda, Yasushi; Iizumi, Toshichika; Kumano, Naoko; Park, Chan; Shen, Zhihong; Toko, Kiyoshi; Tamura, Makoto; Tanoue, Masahiro; Tsuchida, Koujiro; Yokoki, Hiromune; Zhou, Qian; Oki, Taikan; Hijioka, Yasuaki

doi:10.1038/s41558-019-0578-6

Cited by 73 publications

(49 citation statements)

References 57 publications

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“…Specifically, we partition the sum of squares of a two-way analysis of variance (ANOVA) model (NIST/SEMATECH 2013 ; Takakura et al 2019 ): where y is a generic, normalized model variable for a certain period, the subscripts s, and m denote scenarios and models, respectively. is the mean response.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

EMF 35 JMIP study for Japan’s long-term climate and energy policy: scenario designs and key findings

et al. 2021

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In June, 2019, Japan submitted its mid-century strategy to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change and pledged 80% emissions cuts by 2050. The strategy has not gone through a systematic analysis, however. The present study, Stanford Energy Modeling Forum (EMF) 35 Japan Model Intercomparison project (JMIP), employs five energy-economic and integrated assessment models to evaluate the nationally determined contribution and mid-century strategy of Japan. EMF 35 JMIP conducts a suite of sensitivity analyses on dimensions including emissions constraints, technology availability, and demand projections. The results confirm that Japan needs to deploy all of its mitigation strategies at a substantial scale, including energy efficiency, electricity decarbonization, and end-use electrification. Moreover, they suggest that with the absence of structural changes in the economy, heavy industries will be one of the hardest to decarbonize. Partitioning of the sum of squares based on a two-way analysis of variance (ANOVA) reconfirms that mitigation strategies, such as energy efficiency and electrification, are fairly robust across models and scenarios, but that the cost metrics are uncertain. There is a wide gap of policy strength and breadth between the current policy instruments and those suggested by the models. Japan should strengthen its climate action in all aspects of society and economy to achieve its long-term target.

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Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

EMF 35 JMIP study for Japan’s long-term climate and energy policy: scenario designs and key findings

et al. 2021

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“…If they do not, the risk of heat-related hazards, some of which are fatal, will be elevated. LCR can be one of the dominant sources of the expected total economic loss caused by climate change amongst many other climate-induced effects (Takakura et al 2019). Thus, LCR would be a good indicator to gauge potential effects of high temperature on humans whereas this indicator alone does not consider the difference in vulnerability among regions.…”

Section: Labor Capacity Reductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Limiting global warming to 1.5 °C will lower increases in inequalities of four hazard indicators of climate change

Shiogama

Hasegawa

Fujimori

et al. 2019

Environ. Res. Lett.

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Clarifying characteristics of hazards and risks of climate change at 2°C and 1.5°C global warming is important for understanding the implications of the Paris Agreement. We perform and analyze large ensembles of 2°C and 1.5°C warming simulations. In the 2°C runs, we find substantial increases in extreme hot days, heavy rainfalls, high streamflow and labor capacity reduction related to heat stress. For example, about half of the world's population is projected to experience a present day 1-in-10 year hot day event every other year at 2°C warming. The regions with relatively large increases of these four hazard indicators coincide with countries characterized by small CO 2 emissions, low-income and high vulnerability. Limiting global warming to 1.5°C, compared to 2°C, is projected to lower increases in the four hazard indicators especially in those regions.

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“…For the impact on total GHG emissions (including pastoralism) by 2050, 0.8 and 0.5 PgCO 2 increases, relative to the no climate change case, are estimated for SRES A1 and B1 scenarios, respectively (Bajželj and Richards 2014), which is equivalent to 5 and 3% of total emissions for the two scenarios. The impact of warming on agriculture estimated by Takakura et al (2019) is slightly positive for RCP2.6, 4.5, and 6.0 but negative for RCP8.5, while Nordhaus and Boyer (1999) estimated the damage for 2.5°C warming as 0.06% of GDP (output weighted).…”

Section: Croplandmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Cloutier et al (2016) reported that in Canada, warming would impact permafrost, glaciers, and ice caps, leading to landslides. In a CGE-based analysis, the impact of fluvial floods on GDP was negligible (Takakura et al 2019).…”

Section: Natural Disastersmentioning

confidence: 99%

Identifying key processes and sectors in the interaction between climate and socio-economic systems: a review toward integrating Earth–human systems

Tachiiri

Matsumoto

2021

Prog Earth Planet Sci

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For the purpose of identifying the key processes and sectors involved in the interaction between Earth and socio-economic systems, we review existing studies on those processes/sectors through which the climate impacts socio-economic systems, which then in turn affect the climate. For each process/sector, we review the direct physical and ecological impacts and, if available, the impact on the economy and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Based on this review, land sector is identified as the process with the most significant impact on GHG emissions, while labor productivity has the largest impact on the gross domestic product (GDP). On the other hand, the energy sector, due to the increase in the demand for cooling, will have increased GHG emissions. Water resources, sea level rise, natural disasters, ecosystem services, and diseases also show the potential to have a significant influence on GHG emissions and GDP, although for most of these, a large effect was reported only by a limited number of studies. As a result, more studies are required to verify their influence in terms of feedbacks to the climate. In addition, although the economic damage arising from migration and conflict is uncertain, they should be treated as potentially damaging processes.

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Dependence of economic impacts of climate change on anthropogenically directed pathways

Cited by 73 publications

References 57 publications

EMF 35 JMIP study for Japan’s long-term climate and energy policy: scenario designs and key findings

EMF 35 JMIP study for Japan’s long-term climate and energy policy: scenario designs and key findings

Limiting global warming to 1.5 °C will lower increases in inequalities of four hazard indicators of climate change

Identifying key processes and sectors in the interaction between climate and socio-economic systems: a review toward integrating Earth–human systems

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