Deriving user-informed climate information from climate model ensemble results

Huebener, H.; Hoffmann, Peter; Keuler, Klaus; Pfeifer, Susanne; Ramthun, Hans; Spekat, Arne; Steger, Christian; Warrach‐Sagi, Kirsten

doi:10.5194/asr-14-261-2017

Cited by 15 publications

(12 citation statements)

References 34 publications

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“…An assessment of data and information needs of users from all sectors was undertaken during an early project stage (Bülow et al, 2016) and adjusted at the midterm workshop (Huebener et al, 2017b), which formed the basis of the user tailoring of the project results. The users of the project results that were present at the midterm workshop are mainly hydrological modellers, forest researchers, viticulture and agricultural researchers, political advisors at federal states (federal and state environmental agencies, federal forest agencies, geological services, etc.)…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…and city planners for water infrastructure. One outcome of the ReKliEs-de project is a user-guide supporting the users in interpreting the climate model ensemble results (Hübener et al, 2017c). The assessment and the user workshop further revealed a great demand for climate indices for Germany.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The method is described in chap. 5 in Hübener et al (2017c). Another method has been developed by Dalelane et al (2018).…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

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User tailored results of a regional climate model ensemble to plan adaption to the changing climate in Germany

et al. 2019

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Abstract. In the German regional climate modeling project ReKliEs-De the existing EURO-CORDEX simulations have been systematically complemented by new simulations to derive more robust ranges of possible future climate change. The focus of the project lay on user tailored results, which are required for the planning of measures to adapt to the changing climate. Changes in temperature and precipitation indices are calculated from a multi model ensemble for the end of the 21st century. The results for the mitigation scenario RCP2.6 are compared to the results of the “business as usual” scenario RCP8.5. Averaged over Germany the increase of mean annual temperature and of the number of summer days will be around 3 times higher for RCP8.5 than for RCP2.6. In summer, the increase of dry days could be twice as high in RCP8.5 compared to RCP2.6.

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Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

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User tailored results of a regional climate model ensemble to plan adaption to the changing climate in Germany

et al. 2019

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“…Others have also investigated renewable energy projections and note a more challenging environment for wind energy management in the future (Moemken et al 2018). Several other studies used the EURO-CORDEX projections to focus on regional/national level (e.g., Smiatek et al 2016;Rulfová et al 2016;Ouzeau et al 2016;Soares and Cardoso 2017;Hosseinzadehtalaei et al 2018;Bador et al 2017;Fernández et al 2019;Huebener et al 2017;Kjellström et al 2016;Rajczak and Schär 2017;Púčik et al 2017;Frei et al 2018;Termonia et al 2018;Prein and Gobiet 2016;Stepanek et al 2016;Cardoso et al 2018) others applied statistical downscaling methods, to further downscale the regional climate information (e.g., Dosio 2016; Mezghani et al 2017) while others, after adopting bias adjustment techniques, use EURO-CORDEX data for local applications (Reder et al 2018;Croce et al 2018).…”

Section: Evaluation Studies and Projections Of Future European Climatementioning

confidence: 99%

Regional climate downscaling over Europe: perspectives from the EURO-CORDEX community

et al. 2020

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The European CORDEX (EURO-CORDEX) initiative is a large voluntary effort that seeks to advance regional climate and Earth system science in Europe. As part of the World Climate Research Programme (WCRP)-Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX), it shares the broader goals of providing a model evaluation and climate projection framework and improving communication with both the General Circulation Model (GCM) and climate data user communities. EURO-CORDEX oversees the design and coordination of ongoing ensembles of regional climate projections of unprecedented size and resolution (0.11 • EUR-11 and 0.44 • EUR-44 domains). Additionally, the inclusion of empiricalstatistical downscaling allows investigation of much larger multi-model ensembles. These complementary approaches provide a foundation for scientific studies within the climate research community and others. The value of the EURO-CORDEX ensemble is shown via numerous peer-reviewed studies and its use in the development of climate services. Evaluations of the EUR-44 and EUR-11 ensembles also show the benefits of higher resolution. However, significant challenges remain. To further advance scientific understanding, two flagship pilot studies (FPS) were initiated. The first investigates local-regional phenomena at convection-permitting scales over central Europe and the Mediterranean in collaboration with the Med-CORDEX community. The second investigates the impacts of land cover changes on European climate across spatial and temporal scales. Over the coming years, the EURO-CORDEX community looks forward to closer collaboration with other communities, new advances, supporting international initiatives such as the IPCC reports, and continuing to provide the basis for research on regional climate impacts and adaptation in Europe.

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“…Within EURO-CORDEX, an ensemble of CMIP5 global climate model simulations is downscaled to~12 km resolution with an ensemble of regional climate models. To reduce model uncertainty, these climate model ensemble data can be applied to force impact models [244]. For example, the projected change in GDD by the COSMO climate model (CCLM) downscaling the climate data from the EC-EARTH global climate model is displayed in Figure 5.…”

Section: The Projected Climate Change Effects On Agriculturementioning

confidence: 99%

Prospects of Bioenergy Cropping Systems for A More Social-Ecologically Sound Bioeconomy

et al. 2019

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The growing bioeconomy will require a greater supply of biomass in the future for both bioenergy and bio-based products. Today, many bioenergy cropping systems (BCS) are suboptimal due to either social-ecological threats or technical limitations. In addition, the competition for land between bioenergy-crop cultivation, food-crop cultivation, and biodiversity conservation is expected to increase as a result of both continuous world population growth and expected severe climate change effects. This study investigates how BCS can become more social-ecologically sustainable in future. It brings together expert opinions from the fields of agronomy, economics, meteorology, and geography. Potential solutions to the following five main requirements for a more holistically sustainable supply of biomass are summarized: (i) bioenergy-crop cultivation should provide a beneficial social-ecological contribution, such as an increase in both biodiversity and landscape aesthetics, (ii) bioenergy crops should be cultivated on marginal agricultural land so as not to compete with food-crop production, (iii) BCS need to be resilient in the face of projected severe climate change effects, (iv) BCS should foster rural development and support the vast number of small-scale family farmers, managing about 80% of agricultural land and natural resources globally, and (v) bioenergy-crop cultivation must be planned and implemented systematically, using holistic approaches. Further research activities and policy incentives should not only consider the economic potential of bioenergy-crop cultivation, but also aspects of biodiversity, soil fertility, and climate change adaptation specific to site conditions and the given social context. This will help to adapt existing agricultural systems in a changing world and foster the development of a more social-ecologically sustainable bioeconomy.

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Deriving user-informed climate information from climate model ensemble results

Cited by 15 publications

References 34 publications

User tailored results of a regional climate model ensemble to plan adaption to the changing climate in Germany

User tailored results of a regional climate model ensemble to plan adaption to the changing climate in Germany

Regional climate downscaling over Europe: perspectives from the EURO-CORDEX community

Prospects of Bioenergy Cropping Systems for A More Social-Ecologically Sound Bioeconomy

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