User tailored results of a regional climate model ensemble to plan adaption to the changing climate in Germany

Bülow, Katharina; Huebener, H.; Keuler, Klaus; Menz, Christoph; Pfeifer, Susanne; Ramthun, Hans; Spekat, Arne; Steger, Christian; Teichmann, Claas; Warrach‐Sagi, Kirsten

doi:10.5194/asr-16-241-2019

Cited by 9 publications

(5 citation statements)

References 13 publications

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“…The simulations showed a high range of the future precipitation change at the end of the century. This range is comparable with the results of the REKLIES-DE project (±20 % for annual precipitation in the region of Germany and drainage basins of large rivers, 2070-2099 compared to 1971-2000), calculated with 37 climate simulations including the EURO-CORDEX data (Hübener et al, 2017;Bülow et al, 2019). Additionally, similar seasonal shifts (increase in winter and decrease in summer precipitations) were reported in this study.…”

Section: Global and Regional Aspects Of The Uncertainty Of The Projec...supporting

confidence: 92%

Downscaling of climate change scenarios for a high-resolution, site-specific assessment of drought stress risk for two viticultural regions with heterogeneous landscapes

et al. 2022

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Abstract. Extended periods without precipitation, observed for example in central Europe including Germany during the seasons from 2018 to 2020, can lead to water deficit and yield and quality losses for grape and wine production. Irrigation infrastructure in these regions to possibly overcome negative effects is largely non-existent. Regional climate models project changes in precipitation amounts and patterns, indicating an increase in frequency of the occurrence of comparable situations in the future. In order to assess possible impacts of climate change on the water budget of grapevines, a water balance model was developed, which accounts for the large heterogeneity of vineyards with respect to their soil water storage capacity, evapotranspiration as a function of slope and aspect, and viticultural management practices. The model was fed with data from soil maps (soil type and plant-available water capacity), a digital elevation model, the European Union (EU) vineyard-register, observed weather data, and future weather data simulated by regional climate models and downscaled by a stochastic weather generator. This allowed conducting a risk assessment of the drought stress occurrence for the wine-producing regions Rheingau and Hessische Bergstraße in Germany on the scale of individual vineyard plots. The simulations showed that the risk for drought stress varies substantially between vineyard sites but might increase for steep-slope regions in the future. Possible adaptation measures depend highly on local conditions and are needed to make targeted use of water resources, while an intense interplay of different wine-industry stakeholders, research, knowledge transfer, and local authorities will be required.

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Section: Global and Regional Aspects Of The Uncertainty Of The Projec...supporting

confidence: 92%

Downscaling of climate change scenarios for a high-resolution, site-specific assessment of drought stress risk for two viticultural regions with heterogeneous landscapes

et al. 2022

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…The simulations of the precipitation data showed a high bandwidth at the end of the century. This bandwidth is comparable with the results of the REKLIES-DE project (±20 % for annual precipitation, region Germany and drainage basins of large rivers, 2070-2099 compared to 1971-2000), calculated with 37 climate simulations including the EURO-CORDEX data (Hübener et al, 2017;Bülow et al, 2019).…”

Section: Global and Regionals Aspects Of The Uncertainty Of The Projesupporting

confidence: 88%

Downscaling of climate change scenarios for a high resolution, site–specific assessment of drought stress risk for two viticultural regions with heterogeneous landscapes

Hofmann

Volosciuk

Dubrovský

et al. 2021

Preprint

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Abstract. Extended periods without precipitation observed for example in Central Europe including Germany during the seasons from 2018 to 2020, can lead to water deficit and yield and quality losses for grape and wine production. However, irrigation infrastructure is largely non–existent. Regional climate models project changes of precipitation amounts and patterns, indicating an increase in frequency of occurrence of comparable situations in the future. In order to assess possible impacts of climate change on the water budget of grapevines, a water balance model was developed, which accounts for the large heterogeneity of vineyards with respect to their soil water storage capacity, evapotranspiration as a function of slope and aspect, and viticultural management practices. The model was fed with data from soil maps (soil type and plant available water capacity), a digital elevation model, the European Union (EU) vineyard–register, observed weather data and future weather data provided by regional climate models and a stochastic weather generator. This allowed conducting a risk assessment of the drought stress occurrence for the wine–producing regions Rheingau and Hessische Bergstraße in Germany on the scale of individual vineyard plots. The simulations showed that the risk for drought stress varies substantially between vineyard sites but might increase for steep–slope regions in the future. Possible adaptation measures depend highly on local conditions and to make targeted use of the resource water, an intense interplay of different wine-industry stakeholders, research, knowledge transfer, and local authorities will be required.

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“…Within EURO-CORDEX, WRF is applied as a multi-physics ensemble by the participating institutions, that is, each institution applies a different set of parameterizations (Coppola et al, 2018;Davin et al, 2019;Jacob et al, 2020;Kotlarski et al, 2014). Building on the setup of the climate simulations of the University of Hohenheim within EURO-CORDEX (Bülow et al, 2019;Ivanov et al, 2018aIvanov et al, , 2018bWarrach-Sagi et al, 2013) in this study WRF was applied with the Morrison two-moment microphysics scheme (Morrison et al, 2009) and the radiation transfer models for long-wave and shortwave radiation CAM (Collins et al, 2004). Following the investigation of PBL schemes of WRF in Germany by Milovac et al (2016) and the Arabian Peninsula by Schwitalla et al (2020) the local MYNN-2 PBL scheme (Nakanishi & Niino, 2009) was selected.…”

Section: Wrf Model Setupmentioning

confidence: 99%

Noah‐MP With the Generic Crop Growth Model Gecros in the WRF Model: Effects of Dynamic Crop Growth on Land‐Atmosphere Interaction

et al. 2022

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In this paper we coupled a crop growth model to the Weather Research and Forecasting model with its land surface model Noah‐MP and demonstrated the influence of the weather driven crop growth on land‐atmosphere (L‐A) feedback. An impact study was performed at the convection permitting scale of 3 km over Germany. While the leaf area index (LAI) in the control simulation was the same for all cropland grid cells, the inclusion of the crop growth model resulted in heterogeneous crop development with higher LAI and stronger seasonality. For the analyses of L‐A coupling, a two‐legged metric was applied based on soil moisture, latent heat flux and convective available potential energy. Weak atmospheric coupling is enhanced by the crop model, the terrestrial coupling determines the regions with the L‐A feedback. The inclusion of the crop model turns regions with no L‐A feedback on this path into regions with strong positive coupling. The number of non‐atmospherically controlled days between April and August is increased by 10–15 days in more than 50% of Germany. Our work shows that this impact results in a reduction of both cold bias and warm biases and thus improves the metrics of distributed added value of the monthly mean temperatures. The study confirms that the simulation of the weather driven annual phenological development of croplands for the regional climate simulations in mid‐latitudes is crucial due to the L‐A feedback processes and the currently observed and expected future change in phenological phases.

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User tailored results of a regional climate model ensemble to plan adaption to the changing climate in Germany

Cited by 9 publications

References 13 publications

Downscaling of climate change scenarios for a high-resolution, site-specific assessment of drought stress risk for two viticultural regions with heterogeneous landscapes

Downscaling of climate change scenarios for a high-resolution, site-specific assessment of drought stress risk for two viticultural regions with heterogeneous landscapes

Downscaling of climate change scenarios for a high resolution, site–specific assessment of drought stress risk for two viticultural regions with heterogeneous landscapes

Noah‐MP With the Generic Crop Growth Model Gecros in the WRF Model: Effects of Dynamic Crop Growth on Land‐Atmosphere Interaction

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