Descent pathways

Abstract

Purpose -The purpose of this special issue is first to highlight the need for wider understanding of the "civilisational challenge" facing humanity, as it encounters and then exceeds significant limits to growth. The second is to present material that provides grounds for developing effective responses. Design/methodology/approach -The issue draws on evidence from previous research, economic modelling and a range of other sources to investigate the hypothesis that humanity is heading towards an "overshoot and collapse" future. It further suggests that a useful way of responding is to explore the possibility that the prospect of collapse can be moderated or avoided through a process of "conscious descent." Findings -The main findings are that a very wide spectrum of policies, actions, strategies and options is available that can and should be used to help us avoid the most disastrous manifestations of "overshoot and collapse." Yet there are also many barriers and impediments that continue to inhibit effective responses. This means that the process of coming to grips with the "civilisational challenge" will take longer and become increasingly costly. Denialism and short term thinking remain embedded in dominant institutions and mainstream practice. Currently, vastly more is miss-spent on various perverse incentives (e.g. advertising, the funding of denial, fossil fuel subsidies) than on securing the future of civilisation. This can be seen as a consequence of outdated values and inadequate worldviews. Research limitations/implications -The contributions here represent a sample from within a rapidly expanding field of enquiry and action. They should therefore be seen as indicating the need for further high quality investigation, work and action. The main implication is that this process needs to be taken seriously, properly resourced and eventually transformed into a mainstream social project. Originality/value -The papers are contributions to an in-depth understanding of a complex and evolving situation. Their value lies in the fact that greater understanding and a commitment to early action are among the most productive investments available to societies vulnerable to the systemic threats outlined here. As such, the special issue evokes a fundamental tenet of foresight work in general. Or to put this in the words of Bertrand de Jouvenel, "the proof of improvidence lies in falling under the empire of necessity."

The resistance to scientific theory in futures and foresight, and what to do about it

“…Proponents of futures and foresight have been arguing for the development of a social capacity to envision the future (e.g. see Slaughter, 1996 and the special issue of Foresight : edited by Floyd & Slaughter, 2014), a stance that has acquired new vigor with the large scale effort made by UNESCO to enhance the capacity of individuals to think about the future effectively (a capacity called futures literacy) and teach fundamental futures and foresight techniques (called “anticipatory system and processes” in futures literacy language) to communities around the globe (Miller, 2018).…”

The Eco-Cathedric City: Rethinking the Human–Nature Relation in Urbanism

“…Understanding of the global system (limits to growth) Factor in understanding in all major decisions Extremes of growth addiction can be absorbed by the global system without serious damage Replace by an encompassing and durable ethic Economic rationalism which leads to collapse of the global system Shift to steady-state economies: the sooner the better Climate denial as a poor substitute for action Respond to global warming, e.g., through reestablishing civilization on a more enduring basis Peaked over-demand is seen as collapse and descent Engage seriously with the real prospects of peaked over-demand [87] (Floyd and Slaughter 2014)…”

Futures Studies as a Quest for Meaning

“…Around that time I was working with a talented younger colleague on a special issue of Foresight. The topic was that of "Descent Pathways" (Floyd and Slaughter 2014). It addressed the fundamental dilemma that mainstream society and its major institutions have consistently failed to address over the last forty or fifty years (even though they have had many opportunities to do so).…”

“…As such they are indeed subject to conditions and limits. Ignoring these is simply an exercise in delusion and self-deception (Floyd and Slaughter 2014).…”