Designing for safety in passenger ships utilizing advanced evacuation analyses—A risk based approach

Vanem, Erik; Skjong, Rolf

doi:10.1016/j.ssci.2005.06.007

Cited by 74 publications

(50 citation statements)

References 2 publications

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“…In essence, the concept of risk is defined as the likelihood of consequences of undesirable events (Vanem and Skjong, 2006;Hollnagel, 2008). Accidents and incidents are negative outcomes of the systems.…”

Section: Accidents Risks and Risk Analysismentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Further, many models are based on theories or concepts, for example systems theory concepts (Leveson, 2004;Laracy, 2006;Larsson et al, 2010), the Bayesian Belief Network concept (BBN) (Trucco et al, 2008;Merrick and Singh, 2003), Neural Networks (NN) concept (Hashemi et al, 1995;Le Blanc et al, 2001), fuzzy logic (Sii et al, 2001), risk-based approaches (Vanem and Skjong, 2006;Celik et al, 2010), simulation and expert judgment (Harrald et al, 1998). Harrald et al (1998) have pointed out that a theoretical framework is of little use in an analysis unless there is relevant data to support it.…”

Section: Accident Modelsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Accident studies in many domains including the maritime industry are firmly rooted in probabilistic methods (Leveson, 2004;Trucco et al, 2008) and other summary statistics (Vanem and Skjong, 2006;Grabowski et al, 2000;Van Drop et al, 2001;Özgecan and Ulusç u, 2009;Konovessis and Vassalos, 2008;Merrick and Singh, 2003). The studies are largely confined to a few variables, such as vessel type, flag, and business line, total loss incidents (Li et al, 2009), and some categories of accidents, such as fire/explosion, collision (Van Drop et al, 2001;Le Blanc et al, 2001), contact and grounding (Vanem and Skjong, 2006;Özgecan and Ulusç u, 2009).…”

Section: Accident Modelsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The studies are largely confined to a few variables, such as vessel type, flag, and business line, total loss incidents (Li et al, 2009), and some categories of accidents, such as fire/explosion, collision (Van Drop et al, 2001;Le Blanc et al, 2001), contact and grounding (Vanem and Skjong, 2006;Özgecan and Ulusç u, 2009). Summary statistics are important but not sufficient procedures for explaining and predicting accident phenomena.…”

Section: Accident Modelsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…But, the results of this study suggest that this statement may not be quite accurate. The earlier studies have been largely based on summary statistics (Vanem and Skjong, 2006;Grabowski et al, 2000;Van Drop et al, 2001;Özgecan and Ulusç u, 2009) and accident models that do not account for complex phenomena and systems (Leveson, 2004;Trucco et al, 2008). Prevention programs are often proposed to reduce the incidence of human error (Harrald et al, 1998).…”

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confidence: 99%

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A grounded theory model for analysis of marine accidents

Mullai

Paulsson

2011

Accident Analysis & Prevention

106

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Link to publication Citation for published version (APA): Mullai, A., & Paulsson, U. (2011). A grounded theory model for analysis of marine accidents. Accident; analysis and prevention, 43(4), 1590 -1603 . DOI: 10.1016 /j.aap.2011 General rights Copyright and moral rights for the publications made accessible in the public portal are retained by the authors and/or other copyright owners and it is a condition of accessing publications that users recognise and abide by the legal requirements associated with these rights.• Users may download and print one copy of any publication from the public portal for the purpose of private study or research.• You may not further distribute the material or use it for any profit-making activity or commercial gain • You may freely distribute the URL identifying the publication in the public portal Take down policy If you believe that this document breaches copyright please contact us providing details, and we will remove access to the work immediately and investigate your claim. b s t r a c tThe purpose of this paper was to design a conceptual model for analysis of marine accidents. The model is grounded on large amounts of empirical data, i.e. the Swedish Maritime Administration database, which was thoroughly studied. This database contains marine accidents organized by ship and variable. The majority of variables are non-metric and some have never been analyzed because of the large number of values. Summary statistics were employed in the data analysis. In order to develop a conceptual model, the database variables were clustered into eleven main categories or constructs, which were organized according to their properties and connected with the path diagram of relationships. For demonstration purposes, one non-metric and five metric variables were selected, namely fatality, ship's properties (i.e. age, gross register tonnage, and length), number of people on board, and marine accidents. These were analyzed using the structural equation modeling (SEM) approach. The combined prediction power of the 'ship's properties' and 'number of people on board' independent variables accounted for 65% of the variance of the fatality. The model development was largely based on the data contained in the Swedish database. However, as this database shares a number of variables in common with other databases in the region and the world, the model presented in this paper could be applied to other datasets. The model has both theoretical and practical values. Recommendations for improvements in the database are also suggested.

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Section: Accidents Risks and Risk Analysismentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Accident Modelsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Accident Modelsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Accident Modelsmentioning

confidence: 99%

mentioning

confidence: 99%

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A grounded theory model for analysis of marine accidents

Mullai

Paulsson

2011

Accident Analysis & Prevention

106

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Risk Assessment of Navigation Cost in Flood Season of the Upper Reaches of the Yangtze River Based on Entropy Weight Extension Decision Model

Yuan

Zhang

Wang

et al. 2023

Lecture Notes on Data Engineering and Communications Technologies

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VELOS: Crowd Modeling for Enhanced Ship Evacuation Analysis

Κώστας

Ginnis

Politis

et al. 2014

Virtual, Augmented and Mixed Reality. Applications of Virtual and Augmented Reality

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Virtual Environment for Life On Ships (VELOS) is a multiuser Virtual Reality (VR) system that supports designers to assess (early in the design process) passenger and crew activities on a ship for both normal and hectic conditions of operations and to improve the ship design accordingly [1]. Realistic simulations of behavioral aspects of crowd in emergency conditions require modeling of panic aspects and social conventions of inter-relations. The present paper provides a description of the enhanced crowd modeling approach employed in VELOS for the performance of ship evacuation assessment and analysis based on the guidelines provided by IMO's Circular MSC 1238/2007.

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Designing for safety in passenger ships utilizing advanced evacuation analyses—A risk based approach

Cited by 74 publications

References 2 publications

A grounded theory model for analysis of marine accidents

A grounded theory model for analysis of marine accidents

Risk Assessment of Navigation Cost in Flood Season of the Upper Reaches of the Yangtze River Based on Entropy Weight Extension Decision Model

VELOS: Crowd Modeling for Enhanced Ship Evacuation Analysis

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