Link to publication Citation for published version (APA): Mullai, A., & Paulsson, U. (2011). A grounded theory model for analysis of marine accidents. Accident; analysis and prevention, 43(4), 1590 -1603 . DOI: 10.1016 /j.aap.2011 General rights Copyright and moral rights for the publications made accessible in the public portal are retained by the authors and/or other copyright owners and it is a condition of accessing publications that users recognise and abide by the legal requirements associated with these rights.• Users may download and print one copy of any publication from the public portal for the purpose of private study or research.• You may not further distribute the material or use it for any profit-making activity or commercial gain • You may freely distribute the URL identifying the publication in the public portal Take down policy If you believe that this document breaches copyright please contact us providing details, and we will remove access to the work immediately and investigate your claim. b s t r a c tThe purpose of this paper was to design a conceptual model for analysis of marine accidents. The model is grounded on large amounts of empirical data, i.e. the Swedish Maritime Administration database, which was thoroughly studied. This database contains marine accidents organized by ship and variable. The majority of variables are non-metric and some have never been analyzed because of the large number of values. Summary statistics were employed in the data analysis. In order to develop a conceptual model, the database variables were clustered into eleven main categories or constructs, which were organized according to their properties and connected with the path diagram of relationships. For demonstration purposes, one non-metric and five metric variables were selected, namely fatality, ship's properties (i.e. age, gross register tonnage, and length), number of people on board, and marine accidents. These were analyzed using the structural equation modeling (SEM) approach. The combined prediction power of the 'ship's properties' and 'number of people on board' independent variables accounted for 65% of the variance of the fatality. The model development was largely based on the data contained in the Swedish database. However, as this database shares a number of variables in common with other databases in the region and the world, the model presented in this paper could be applied to other datasets. The model has both theoretical and practical values. Recommendations for improvements in the database are also suggested.

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Human safety and health, environmental and property protection and security concerning hazardous materials supply chain are important issues for many countries, industries and organisations around the world. This paper presents some key results of a comprehensive risk study on hazardous materials supply chain incidents. Based on a risk analysis framework adapted for maritime transport of packaged dangerous goods, this study combines qualitative and quantitative analysis of large and diverse datasets collected from some of the U.S.'s best and largest data sources. The study may be one of the largest of its kind, and some of the results might not be found elsewhere. Incidents have occurred in every system of the hazardous materials supply chain, including platforms, all modes of transport, chemical plants, terminals and storages. The results show that more than half (52.1%) of incidents are attributed to the transport system. The study largely considers incidents happening during maritime transport, which account for 18% of transport in cidents. In absolute terms, the FN curves of maritime transport human risks are generally found to be well below the corresponding FN curves of aggregated supply chain human risks.

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