Designing Prediction Markets to Forecast Multi-Stage Elections: The 2022 French Presidential Election

Berg, Joyce E.; Gruca, Thomas S.; Rietz, Thomas A.

doi:10.1017/s104909652200052x

Cited by 4 publications

(2 citation statements)

References 7 publications

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“…Their individual preferences are, at least in theory, irrelevant. Markets (ran for academic purposes) represent a future avenue of research for French elections although this approach is not without its challenges (see Berg et al 2022). It is worth noting, however, that wagers on French election outcomes are not completely unheard of as private online bookmakers such as Betfair are already exploiting the election betting industry including bets on French elections.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Predicting in an (increasingly) unpredictable system? Forty years of election forecasting in France

Mongrain

2022

Fr Polit

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In the last 40 years or so, scholars have proposed a vast array of models and approaches to predict election outcomes in a variety of democracies. Election forecasting has garnered increasing attention and has been the subject of multiple symposia and special issues in political science journals. This article reviews the forecasting efforts that have been deployed in the case of France since pioneering work in the late 1970s and early 1980s and discusses the peculiarities of the French political system and their consequences as well as the challenges they create for election forecasting.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Predicting in an (increasingly) unpredictable system? Forty years of election forecasting in France

Mongrain

2022

Fr Polit

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“…Dolez and Laurent (2022) used forecasting results of the French legislative contests to foretell whether the new president-elect could rely on a majority in the French National Assembly. Berg, Gruca, and Rietz (2022) discuss something never before tried in the French presidential-election context: How and under what conditions can the Iowa Electronic Market approach be applied to forecasting 2022?…”

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confidence: 99%