Detectable Anthropogenic Shift toward Heavy Precipitation over Eastern China

Ma, Shuangmei; Zhou, Tianjun; Stone, Dáithí A.; Polson, Debbie; Dai, Aiguo; Stott, Peter; Storch, Hans von; Qian, Yun; Burke, Claire; Wu, Peili; Zou, Liwei; Ciavarella, Andrew

doi:10.1175/jcli-d-16-0311.1

Cited by 95 publications

(63 citation statements)

References 64 publications

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“…In recent years, China has experienced an increase in extreme climate events, some of which present widespread impacts, including deaths, severe ecosystem damage, and large economic losses. These increased extreme events in China have had detectable anthropogenic influences with a high confidence level for temperature‐related extremes but a low confidence level for precipitation‐related extremes (Sun et al, ; Chen and Sun, , , ; Li et al, ; Ma et al, ). Here, we present an analysis of a set of extreme climate events in China, including the wide‐ranging cold event across China in January 2011, extreme hot event over eastern China from July to August 2013, large‐scale heavy rainfall over northern China in July 2012, and severe drought over NC from July to August 2014.…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Projected changes in climate extremes in China in a 1.5 °C warmer world

Chen

Sun

2018

Intl Journal of Climatology

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In December 2015, the Paris Agreement was reached in an effort to limit global warming to below 1.5 °C. However, there is few scientific literature assessing changes in the climate with 1.5 °C of warming over China. We investigated changes in climate extremes in China that generally present high impacts on society. The results indicated that an additional warming of 0.5 °C would lead to significant increases in temperature and precipitation extremes across China. Both the temperatures on the hottest days and the frequencies of heat events across China are estimated to be lower when limiting warming to 1.5 °C compared to 2.0 °C. Events such as the record heat case in the summer of 2013 over eastern China would be approximately 28% less likely to occur if warming was limited to below 1.5 °C. Moreover, China would experience reduced precipitation extremes, although this projection is accompanied by a relatively lower confidence level than for changes in temperature extremes. High‐impact heavy rain events similar to that in the summer of 2012 over northern China (Beijing) that led to severe urban waterlogging and loss of life would be less likely if there is no more than 0.5 °C of warming. Similarly, the odds of wide‐ranging severe droughts, as witnessed in the summer of 2014 over north China, are projected to decrease clearly. The positive effects of limiting warming on changes in climate extremes are thus clear, and limiting warming should be encouraged regardless of the political and socio‐economic goals of a country.

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Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Projected changes in climate extremes in China in a 1.5 °C warmer world

Chen

Sun

2018

Intl Journal of Climatology

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“…On more local spatial scales, some previous observational studies also report an increase in heavy rain and a decrease in light rain over China. For example Ma et al (2017), observe a decrease in total rain from light rain days, and an increase in total rain from heavy rain days. Their reported change in light rain is weak statistically, and their reported change in heavy rain is larger and statistically stronger.…”

Section: Physical Basis and Comparison With Previous Studiesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Impact of Anthropogenic Climate Change on the East Asian Summer Monsoon

Burke

Stott

2017

J. Climate

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The East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) is important for bringing rainfall to large areas of China. Historically, variations in the EASM have had major impacts including flooding and drought. We present an analysis of the impact of anthropogenic climate change on EASM rainfall in Eastern China using a newly updated attribution system. Our results suggest that anthropogenic climate change has led to an overall decrease in total monsoon rainfall over the past 65 years, and an increased number of dry days. However the model also predicts that anthropogenic forcings have caused the most extreme heavy rainfall events to become shorter in duration and more intense. With the potential for future changes in aerosol and greenhouse gas emissions, historical trends in monsoon rainfall may not be indicative of future changes, although extreme rainfall is projected to increase over East Asia with continued warming in the region. 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

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“…Some studies suggest that external forcing, such as the changes in greenhouse gas (GHG) concentrations and anthropogenic aerosol (AA) emissions, are the most important factors for generating the SFND pattern (Chen and Sun 2017;Ma et al 2017;Wang et al 2013;Xie et al 2016;Zhang et al 2017). For example, based on the coupled general circulation model (CGCM) Bergen Climate Model (BGM), and by using multi-ensemble simulations, Wang et al (2013) argued that the SFND pattern is predominantly forced by the combined effect of increasing GHG and aerosol emissions.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Forced decadal changes in the East Asian summer monsoon: the roles of greenhouse gases and anthropogenic aerosols

et al. 2018

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Since the mid-1990s precipitation trends over eastern China display a dipole pattern, characterized by positive anomalies in the south and negative anomalies in the north, named as the Southern-Flood-Northern-Drought (SFND) pattern. This work investigates the drivers of decadal changes of the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM), and the dynamical mechanisms involved, by using a coupled climate model (specifically an atmospheric general circulation model coupled to an ocean mixed layer model) forced by changes in (1) anthropogenic greenhouse gases (GHG), (2) anthropogenic aerosol (AA) and (3) the combined effects of both GHG and AA (All Forcing) between two periods across the mid-1990s. The model experiment forced by changes in All Forcing shows a dipole pattern of response in precipitation over China that is similar to the observed SFND pattern across the mid-1990s, which suggests that anthropogenic forcing changes played an important role in the observed decadal changes. Furthermore, the experiments with separate forcings indicate that GHG and AA forcing dominate different parts of the SFND pattern. In particular, changes in GHG increase precipitation over southern China, whilst changes in AA dominate in the drought conditions over northern China. Increases in GHG cause increased moisture transport convergence over eastern China, which leads to increased precipitation. The AA forcing changes weaken the EASM, which lead to divergent wind anomalies over northern China and reduced precipitation.

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Detectable Anthropogenic Shift toward Heavy Precipitation over Eastern China

Cited by 95 publications

References 64 publications

Projected changes in climate extremes in China in a 1.5 °C warmer world

Projected changes in climate extremes in China in a 1.5 °C warmer world

Impact of Anthropogenic Climate Change on the East Asian Summer Monsoon

Forced decadal changes in the East Asian summer monsoon: the roles of greenhouse gases and anthropogenic aerosols

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