Detecting Volcanic Eruptions in Temperature Reconstructions by Designed Break‐Indicator Saturation

Hendry, David F.; Pretis, Felix; Schneider, Lea; Smerdon, Jason E.

doi:10.1002/9781119328223.ch2

Cited by 13 publications

(13 citation statements)

References 52 publications

(67 reference statements)

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“…However, if more indicators are retained than expected, this can be informative about the underlying unmodelled characteristics of the data (see [ 45 ] for a formal discussion of IIS misspecification testing). IIS has been applied to various settings, including the identification of unknown volcanic eruptions in historic temperature records [ 46 , 47 ], to evaluate climate models [ 48 ], assess economic forecasts [ 49 ] and test the robustness of panel models of unemployment [ 50 ]. For the present analysis, IIS is implemented using the R-package ‘gets' [ 20 ].…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Uncertain impacts on economic growth when stabilizing global temperatures at 1.5°C or 2°C warming

Pretis

Schwarz

Tang

et al. 2018

Phil. Trans. R. Soc. A.

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Empirical evidence suggests that variations in climate affect economic growth across countries over time. However, little is known about the relative impacts of climate change on economic outcomes when global mean surface temperature (GMST) is stabilized at 1.5°C or 2°C warming relative to pre-industrial levels. Here we use a new set of climate simulations under 1.5°C and 2°C warming from the ‘Half a degree Additional warming, Prognosis and Projected Impacts' (HAPPI) project to assess changes in economic growth using empirical estimates of climate impacts in a global panel dataset. Panel estimation results that are robust to outliers and breaks suggest that within-year variability of monthly temperatures and precipitation has little effect on economic growth beyond global nonlinear temperature effects. While expected temperature changes under a GMST increase of 1.5°C lead to proportionally higher warming in the Northern Hemisphere, the projected impact on economic growth is larger in the Tropics and Southern Hemisphere. Accounting for econometric estimation and climate uncertainty, the projected impacts on economic growth of 1.5°C warming are close to indistinguishable from current climate conditions, while 2°C warming suggests statistically lower economic growth for a large set of countries (median projected annual growth up to 2% lower). Level projections of gross domestic product (GDP) per capita exhibit high uncertainties, with median projected global average GDP per capita approximately 5% lower at the end of the century under 2°C warming relative to 1.5°C. The correlation between climate-induced reductions in per capita GDP growth and national income levels is significant at the p < 0.001 level, with lower-income countries experiencing greater losses, which may increase economic inequality between countries and is relevant to discussions of loss and damage under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change.This article is part of the theme issue ‘The Paris Agreement: understanding the physical and social challenges for a warming world of 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels'.

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Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Uncertain impacts on economic growth when stabilizing global temperatures at 1.5°C or 2°C warming

Pretis

Schwarz

Tang

et al. 2018

Phil. Trans. R. Soc. A.

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“…The latter quantity is subject to strong biological persistence that is thought to impose higher temporal autocorrelation in derived chronologies, while density records display lower autocorrelation (see Wilson et al for a cogent review of these issues). The consequence for estimates of climatic cooling subsequent to volcanic eruptions are that density records indicate enhanced cooling spikes in the year directly following the eruption and a quicker return to mean climate, relative to width records that tend to smooth the signal and yield smaller deviations that persist longer . This awareness is spurring new attempts to better characterize climatic responses to volcanic eruptions, but it remains uncertain how the relative contributions of ring width and density may influence the decadal and centennial variability of large‐scale reconstructions.…”

Section: Back To the Futurementioning

confidence: 99%

Reconstructing Earth's surface temperature over the past 2000 years: the science behind the headlines

Smerdon

Pollack²

2016

WIREs Climate Change

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The last quarter century spans the publication of the first assessment report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change in 1990 and the latest report published in 2013-2014. The five assessment reports appearing over that interval reveal a marked increase in the number of paleoclimate studies addressing the climate of the last 2000 years (the Common Era). An important focus of this work has been on reconstruction of hemispheric and global temperatures. Several early studies in this area generated considerable scientific and public interest, and were followed by high-profile and sometimes vitriolic debates about the magnitude of temperature changes over all or part of the Common Era and their comparison to 20th-and 21st-century global temperature increases due to increasing levels of atmospheric greenhouse gases. Behind the more public debates, however, several consistent themes of scientific inquiry have developed to better characterize climate variability and change over the Common Era. These include attempts to collect more climate proxy archives and understand the signals they contain, improve the statistical methods used to estimate past temperature variability from proxies and their associated uncertainties, and to compare reconstructed temperature variability and change with climate model simulations. All of these efforts are driving a new age of research on the climate of the Common Era that is developing more cohesive and collaborative investigations into the dynamics of climate on time scales of decades to centuries, and an understanding of the implications for modeled climate projections of the future. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. How to cite this article:WIREs Clim Change 2016. doi: 10.1002/wcc.418 INTRODUCTIONThe farther backward you can look, the farther forward you are likely to see.-Winston Churchill T his well-known comment by Winston Churchill asserts that there are lessons of history that help us better understand the present and more clearly anticipate the future. Herein we review the application of this tenet to paleoclimatology, the scientific field that seeks to estimate, or reconstruct, Earth's past climatic states and interpret the causes of past variability. We principally address climate reconstructions of the past two millennia, a period of time known as the Common Era (CE), that use proxies for climate information prior to the instrumental record of the past two centuries or so. A climate proxy, by definition, is a surrogate for an instrumental observation such as temperature, precipitation, or solar irradiance. Proxies are selected principally on the basis of their sensitivity to changes in target quantities, their geographic distribution, and their temporal range and resolution. Each proxy is nevertheless an imperfect representation of past climate, a reality that is central to ongoing efforts to improve proxy acquisition, interpretation, and application for a better understanding of past and, consequently, future climate variability and change.Our focus in this review is sp...

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“…If the breaks under investigation have a relatively regular shape, saturation techniques can be 'designed' appropriately, denoted DIS. This idea has been used by Pretis et al (2016) to detect the impacts of volcanic eruptions on temperature records. When a volcano erupts, it spews material into the atmosphere and above, which can 'block' sunlight, or more accurately, reduce received solar radiation.…”

Section: Designed-break Indicator Saturationmentioning

confidence: 99%

Detectives of Change: Indicator Saturation

Castle

Hendry

2019

Modelling Our Changing World

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Structural changes are pervasive from innovations affecting many disciplines. These can shift distributions, altering relationships and causing forecast failure. Many empirical models also have outliers: both can distort inference. When the dates of shifts are not known, they need to be detected to be handled, usually by creating an indicator variable that matches the event. The basic example is an impulse indicator equal to unity for the date of an outlier and zero elsewhere. We discuss an approach to finding multiple outliers and shifts called saturation estimation. For finding outliers, an impulse indicator is created for every observation and the computer program searches to see which, if any, match an outlier. Similarly for location shifts: a step indicator equal to unity till time t is created for every t and searched over. We explain how and why this approach works.

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Detecting Volcanic Eruptions in Temperature Reconstructions by Designed Break‐Indicator Saturation

Cited by 13 publications

References 52 publications

Uncertain impacts on economic growth when stabilizing global temperatures at 1.5°C or 2°C warming

Uncertain impacts on economic growth when stabilizing global temperatures at 1.5°C or 2°C warming

Reconstructing Earth's surface temperature over the past 2000 years: the science behind the headlines

Detectives of Change: Indicator Saturation

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