Determination of Precipitation Return Values in Complex Terrain and Their Evaluation

Früh, Barbara; Feldmann, Hendrik; Panitz, Hans-Jürgen; Schädler, Gerd; Jacob, Daniela; Lorenz, Philip; Keuler, Klaus

doi:10.1175/2009jcli2685.1

Cited by 34 publications

(31 citation statements)

References 32 publications

(34 reference statements)

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“…The value of RCMs depends on the physical parameterizations, experimental setup, the analyzed variable and location (Feser et al, 2011). Although a large number of studies have validated the RCM output and have demonstrated that RCMs can realistically simulate climate compared to observations (e.g., Früh et al, 2010), mostly they have not explicitly shown whether the capabilities of the RCM exceed those of global forcing data (Prömmel et al, 2010).…”

Section: K Klehmet Et Al: a Regional Climate Model Hindcast For Sibmentioning

confidence: 99%

A regional climate model hindcast for Siberia: analysis of snow water equivalent

2013

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Abstract. This study analyzes the added value of a regional climate model hindcast with respect to snow water equivalent (SWE) for Siberia when compared to SWE estimates from forcing NCEP-R1. In addition, we examine the discrepancies of simulated SWE to several recent reanalysis products (NCEP-R2, NCEP-CFSR, ERA-Interim). We apply the regional climate model COSMO-CLM (CCLM) to a 50 km grid spacing using NCEP-R1 as driving force to obtain a 63 yr (1948 to 2010) gridded dataset of historical SWE. Simulated regional climate data is necessary because of the absence of station data in that region. To perform large-scale assessments we use the satellite-derived daily SWE product of ESA DUE GlobSnow from 1987 to 2010. Russian station SWE data is used for cross-checking the findings. In January (mid-winter), the SWE hindcast is in good agreement with GlobSnow, whereas it overestimates SWE during the melting season. CCLM shows a clear added value in providing realistic SWE information compared to the driving reanalysis. The temporal consistency of CCLM is higher than that presented by ERA-Interim and NCEP-R2.

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Section: K Klehmet Et Al: a Regional Climate Model Hindcast For Sibmentioning

confidence: 99%

A regional climate model hindcast for Siberia: analysis of snow water equivalent

2013

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“…Hagemann et al 2009, Endler & Matzarakis 2010, Früh et al 2010, Kjellström et al 2011). According to the study by Reichler & Kim (2008), EH5OM is one of the most successful CMIP3 1 global models in simulating the climate of the 20th century.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Near-future climate change over Europe with focus on Croatia in an ensemble of regional climate model simulations

Branković¹,

Patarčić²,

Güttler³

et al. 2012

Clim. Res.

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The RegCM climate model was used at a 35 km resolution to downscale the 3-member global ECHAM5/MPI-OM ensemble based on the IPCC A2 scenario covering the EuropeanMediterranean domain. Within the reference climate (1961−1990), the model high 2 m temperatures (T2m) were reduced and low temperatures were increased relative to verification in a large portion of the domain. Precipitation was underestimated in summer over the Mediterranean region but was overestimated over western Europe in winter, probably due to excessive westerlies in the global model. When RegCM was forced by ERA-40, the dominant errors in the summer T2m appear to be genuine RegCM errors, but a large fraction of errors in winter precipitation was imported from the lateral boundaries. In the near future (2011−2040), the summer T2m is projected to increase by +1.8°C over southwest Europe. The simulated change in precipitation is small and is significant only in regions around the Mediterranean. The wetter north and drier south, a major feature in projections of the European winter climate in the late 21st century, is not predicted for the near future. Similarly, summer drying is confined to western Europe in contrast to nearly continental scale drying observed in projections of the late 21st century. This finding may influence the approaches for adaptation to climate change in the first half and at the end of this century. The effects of downscaling at small scales are analysed for the case of Croatia. The spatial distribution of the number of days with extreme T2m and precipitation in RegCM is consistent with observations. However, this metric is generally underestimated, indicating that over complex orography, even higher horizontal resolution is needed to better resolve climate extremes.

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“…However, there are numerous applications of the POT approach which do not consider timedependent parameters (e.g. Madsen et al, 1997;Claps and Laio, 2003;Bacova-Mitkova and Onderka, 2010;Fruh et al, 2010).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Effects of disregarding seasonality on the distribution of hydrological extremes

Allamano

Laio

Claps

2011

Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci.

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Abstract. This paper deals with the seasonality of hydroclimatic extremes and with the problem of accounting for their non-homogeneous character in determining the design value. To this aim we devise a simple stochastic experiment in which extremes are produced by a non-homogeneous extreme value generation process. The design values are estimated in closed analytical form both in a peak over threshold framework and by using the standard annual maxima approach. In this completely controlled world of generated hydrological extremes, a statistical measure of the error associated to the adoption of a homogeneous model is introduced. The sensitivity of this measure, named return period ratio, to the typology and strength of seasonality is investigated. We find that neglecting seasonality induces a downward bias in design value estimators. The magnitude of the bias may be large when the peak over threshold approach is adopted, while the return period distortion is limited when the annual maxima are considered. An application to rainfall data from a 30 000 km 2 region located in North-Western Italy is presented to better clarify the effects of disregarding seasonality in a real case.

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Determination of Precipitation Return Values in Complex Terrain and Their Evaluation

Cited by 34 publications

References 32 publications

A regional climate model hindcast for Siberia: analysis of snow water equivalent

A regional climate model hindcast for Siberia: analysis of snow water equivalent

Near-future climate change over Europe with focus on Croatia in an ensemble of regional climate model simulations

Effects of disregarding seasonality on the distribution of hydrological extremes

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