Determination of Threats and Risks in Conditions of Combat Oper-Ations by Using Geospatial Analysis and Time Analysis

Abstract

The article proposes ways of identifying threats and risks during combat operations through the comprehensive application of geospatial analysis and time analysis. The most important criteria of the events under which the analysis is conducted to identify patterns in combat operations by a possible enemy are identified. Features of geospatial and time analysis of threats and risks are considered and its results are implemented in the geographical information software product ArcGIS Pro. As a result of the study, a method is proposed to systematize events occurring during combat operations and use this data in geospatial and time analysis to predict possible enemy behavior, which will allow the commander to attack before the opposing party can strike again at friendly forces at the location area. Geospatial and time analysis in the Model Builder geographical information application is aimed at identifying patterns in enemy attacks and includes: downloading statistics, converting the time field and creating a timeline, building multiple buffers, identifying with attribute sampling. Geoprocessing models help automate and document spatial analysis and data management processes. The model is presented in the form of a table diagram showing the sequence of processes and geoprocessing tools, the model uses sequential or parallel execution, as well as their possible combination. Criteria for detecting patterns include the local and global time of the attack, phase of the month, coordinates of attack in the Military Grid Reference System, type of attack, type of weapon. The starting materials for the analysis are information obtained from the United States Army's Worldwide Equipment Guide, 2010. The starting materials were systematized and distributed separately into branches of analysis. According to the results of the geospatial and time analysis, patterns and characteristics of enemy attacks were revealed. In this way, unit commanders receive credible information that they can use to identify potential threats and risks from the enemy and to plan their operations.