Determining regional limits and sectoral constraints for water use

Lissner, Tabea; Sullivan, Caroline A; Reusser, Dominik E.; Kropp, Jürgen P.

doi:10.5194/hess-18-4039-2014

Cited by 10 publications

(4 citation statements)

References 30 publications

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“…Lissner et al (2012), for instance, noticed significant difference in terms of water demand per capita between the simulated products of WaterGAP and reported AQUASTAT data. These uncertainties are mainly related to (i) available data support, (ii) demand calculation algorithms and (iii) host models.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

On inclusion of water resource management in Earth system models – Part 1: Problem definition and representation of water demand

Nazemi

Wheater

2015

Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci.

169

101

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Abstract. Human activities have caused various changes to the Earth system, and hence the interconnections between human activities and the Earth system should be recognized and reflected in models that simulate Earth system processes. One key anthropogenic activity is water resource management, which determines the dynamics of human-water interactions in time and space and controls human livelihoods and economy, including energy and food production. There are immediate needs to include water resource management in Earth system models. First, the extent of human water requirements is increasing rapidly at the global scale and it is crucial to analyze the possible imbalance between water demands and supply under various scenarios of climate change and across various temporal and spatial scales. Second, recent observations show that human-water interactions, manifested through water resource management, can substantially alter the terrestrial water cycle, affect land-atmospheric feedbacks and may further interact with climate and contribute to sea-level change. Due to the importance of water resource management in determining the future of the global water and climate cycles, the World Climate Research Program's Global Energy and Water Exchanges project (WRCP-GEWEX) has recently identified gaps in describing humanwater interactions as one of the grand challenges in Earth system modeling (GEWEX, 2012). Here, we divide water resource management into two interdependent elements, related firstly to water demand and secondly to water supply and allocation. In this paper, we survey the current literature on how various components of water demand have been included in large-scale models, in particular land surface and global hydrological models. Issues of water supply and allocation are addressed in a companion paper. The available algorithms to represent the dominant demands are classified based on the demand type, mode of simulation and underlying modeling assumptions. We discuss the pros and cons of available algorithms, address various sources of uncertainty and highlight limitations in current applications. We conclude that current capability of large-scale models to represent human water demands is rather limited, particularly with respect to future projections and coupled landatmospheric simulations. To fill these gaps, the available models, algorithms and data for representing various water demands should be systematically tested, intercompared and improved. In particular, human water demands should be considered in conjunction with water supply and allocation, particularly in the face of water scarcity and unknown future climate. Background and scope Large-scale modeling -an introduction to land-surface and global hydrological modelsThe Earth system is an integrated system that unifies the physical processes at the Earth's surface. These processes include a wide range of feedbacks and interactions between and within the atmosphere, land and oceans and cover the global cycles of climate, water and carbon that sup...

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

On inclusion of water resource management in Earth system models – Part 1: Problem definition and representation of water demand

Nazemi

Wheater

2015

Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci.

169

101

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…Additionally, the assessment of water requirements as an aggregate of all sectors does not take different sectoral requirements into account, with regard to quality and infrastructure, for example. More detailed analyses at finer resolutions, as, for example, proposed by Lissner et al (2014b), can provide important further information in this regard. Finally, the implementation at country scale using annual mean water availability also assumes an even distribution of population and resources across space and time within country boundaries.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Climate impacts on human livelihoods: where uncertainty matters in projections of water availability

et al. 2014

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Abstract. Climate change will have adverse impacts on many different sectors of society, with manifold consequences for human livelihoods and well-being. However, a systematic method to quantify human well-being and livelihoods across sectors is so far unavailable, making it difficult to determine the extent of such impacts. Climate impact analyses are often limited to individual sectors (e.g. food or water) and employ sector-specific target measures, while systematic linkages to general livelihood conditions remain unexplored. Further, recent multi-model assessments have shown that uncertainties in projections of climate impacts deriving from climate and impact models, as well as greenhouse gas scenarios, are substantial, posing an additional challenge in linking climate impacts with livelihood conditions. This article first presents a methodology to consistently measure what is referred to here as AHEAD (Adequate Human livelihood conditions for wEll-being And Development). Based on a trans-disciplinary sample of concepts addressing human well-being and livelihoods, the approach measures the adequacy of conditions of 16 elements. We implement the method at global scale, using results from the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISI-MIP) to show how changes in water availability affect the fulfilment of AHEAD at national resolution. In addition, AHEAD allows for the uncertainty of climate and impact model projections to be identified and differentiated. We show how the approach can help to put the substantial inter-model spread into the context of country-specific livelihood conditions by differentiating where the uncertainty about water scarcity is relevant with regard to livelihood conditions -and where it is not. The results indicate that livelihood conditions are compromised by water scarcity in 34 countries. However, more often, AHEAD fulfilment is limited through other elements. The analysis shows that the water-specific uncertainty ranges of the model output are outside relevant thresholds for AHEAD for 65 out of 111 countries, and therefore do not contribute to the overall uncertainty about climate change impacts on livelihoods. In 46 of the countries in the analysis, water-specific uncertainty is relevant to AHEAD. The AHEAD method presented here, together with first results, forms an important step towards making scientific results more applicable for policy decisions.

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“…As explained by Lissner et al (2014), the most important sectors of human water use are the municipal (domestic), agricultural, energy production and industrial sectors. To this list, and especially relevant in this basin, we would add infrastructure for the management of risks of flood and drought, and other byproducts of hydrologic variability Lall 2006, Grey andSadoff 2007).…”

Section: Endemic Povertymentioning

confidence: 99%

Room for improvement: Hydroclimatic challenges to poverty-reducing development of the Brahmaputra River basin

Ray

Yang

et al. 2015

Environmental Science & Policy

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Determining regional limits and sectoral constraints for water use

Cited by 10 publications

References 30 publications

On inclusion of water resource management in Earth system models – Part 1: Problem definition and representation of water demand

On inclusion of water resource management in Earth system models – Part 1: Problem definition and representation of water demand

Climate impacts on human livelihoods: where uncertainty matters in projections of water availability

Room for improvement: Hydroclimatic challenges to poverty-reducing development of the Brahmaputra River basin

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