Determining the Causes of Irredentism: Logit Analyses of Minorities at Risk Data from the 1980s and 1990s

Abstract

Irredentism and secessionism have been important causes of international conflict in the 1990s, yet few have considered why ethnic groups desire union with kin elsewhere or want to become independent. Why do groups desire independence rather than union with kin, or vice versa? We consider five distinct explanations: the nature of the group itself; characteristics of the group's kin; contagion processes; ethnic security dilemmas; and the end of the cold war. Using logit, we analyze data from the Minorities at Risk data set. Our findings support elements of the conventional wisdom: Ethnic kin influence irredentism, and violence between a group and its host state increases secessionism. Contrary to current debates, groups that are more concentrated are more likely to be secessionist. Further, some factors are less important than usually argued: relative size, a group's ethnic distinctiveness, economic and political differences, regime type, and economic growth.

The Internationalization of Terrorist Campaigns

“…This intuition seems to be confirmed by the empirical evidence. Consistently, studies in the literature and that domestic civil conflict can increase the prospect for spillover and regional spread into international conflict (Davis & Moore, 1997;Lake & Rothchild, 1998;Khosla, 1999;Saideman & Ayers, 2000).…”

Refining the Influence of Language on National Attachment: Exploring Linguistic Threat Perceptions in Quebec

“…19 Furthermore, seeing that economic and security powers are almost always ultimately in the hands of majorities, fears have a greater existentialist impulse amongst minority groups. 20 The scholarship has highlighted the influence of ingroup threat on the national attachment of minority groups. The fears of minorities have been shown to weaken attachment to their country, as well as lead to greater support for secession.…”

Separatism as a Bargaining Posture: The Role of Leverage in Minority Radicalization

“…There is by now an impressive literature on the causes of minority rebellion and ethnic conflict, including a number of studies that utilize the Minorities at Risk dataset to identify factors that predispose minorities to separatism or rebellion (Saideman & Ayres, 2000;Toft, 2003;Fearon & Laitin, 2003). The present article builds on these studies by introducing a bargaining theory of group demands as well as a new conceptualization of radicalization that captures the degree of minority challenge over institutions of the state.…”