Deterministic and Probabilistic Evaluation of Liquefaction Potential: A Case Study from 2015 Gorkha (Nepal) Earthquake

Jha, Sanjay Kumar; Karki, Bishal; Bhattarai, Amrit

doi:10.1007/s10706-020-01277-7

“…The photo evidence was collected by the first author in the aftermath of the Gorkha earthquake, see the Appendix; the same liquefaction location was also documented in another study (Jha et al 2020) 3…”

Section: Historical Records Of Liquefaction In the Kathmandu Valleymentioning

confidence: 54%

“…Wald and Allen 2007). Jha et al (2020) compared probabilistic and deterministic approaches for liquefaction potential evaluation in the Kathmandu Valley using two boreholes. In this paper, two deterministic approaches (Iwasaki et al 1978, 1982, 1984and Sonmez 2003) are compared using a database of field observations.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Liquefaction potential for the Kathmandu Valley, Nepal: a sensitivity study

Pokhrel

¹

,

Gilder

²

,

Vardanega

³

et al. 2021

Bull Earthquake Eng

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An assessment of liquefaction potential for the Kathmandu Valley considering seasonal variability of the groundwater table has been conducted. To gain deeper understanding seven historical liquefaction records located adjacent to borehole datapoints (published in SAFER/GEO-591) were used to compare two methods for the estimation of liquefaction potential. Standard Penetration Test (SPT) blowcount data from 75 boreholes inform the new liquefaction potential maps. Various scenarios were modelled, i.e., seasonal variation of the groundwater table and peak ground acceleration. Ordinary kriging, implemented in ArcGIS, was used to prepare maps at urban scale. Liquefaction potential calculations using the methodology from (Sonmez, Environ Geol 44:862–871, 2003) provided a good match to the historical liquefaction records in the region. Seasonal variation of the groundwater table is shown to have a significant effect on the spatial distribution of calculated liquefaction potential across the valley. The less than anticipated liquefaction manifestations due to the Gorkha earthquake are possibly due to the seasonal water table level.

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“…Piya (2004). All these studies adopted a deterministic approach to liquefaction potential analysis, and have presented unrepresentative and underestimated liquefaction susceptibility of the Kathmandu Valley soil (Jha et al, 2020;K. C. et al, 2020;Sharma et al, 2016Sharma et al, , 2018Sharma et al, , 2019.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Probabilistic Liquefaction Potential of Kathmandu Valley Soil Based on Standard Penetration Tests

Subedi

¹

,

KC

²

,

Acharya

³

et al. 2023

Preprint

0

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Despite being a liquefaction susceptible zone, Kathmandu Valley soil in Nepal has limited studies on liquefaction potential and most of them are based on the deterministic approach. Although this method is widely used, it ignores the uncertainties of seismic parameters such as peak ground acceleration, amax, and earthquake magnitude, Mw as well as the inherent variabilities of soil layers, in-situ testing procedures, and geotechnical properties. On the other hand, the probabilistic approach helps assess the liquefaction potential by considering all these uncertainties. In this study, we assess the liquefaction hazard in the Kathmandu Valley using the first-order second-moment (FOSM) method as a probabilistic approach for liquefaction hazard assessment. The assessment is done for three likely-to-recur scenario earthquakes utilizing the geotechnical data of 1510 boreholes. The soils are characterized geotechnically to further assess susceptibility criteria of liquefaction in the valley. The assessment reveals that the central part of the valley is more vulnerable to liquefaction than other parts and the liquefaction probability increases with increasing depth up to 9 m, after which has geared down the value. Moreover, a relationship between the probability of liquefaction (PL) and the factor of safety (FS) against liquefaction is established. The hazard maps prepared for different earthquake scenarios can be useful for future infrastructure planning in Kathmandu Valley.

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“…Liquefaction risk study in the Kathmandu Valley is still considered inadequate although we have a few locally available main reference materials prepared and proposed by UNDP (1994), JICA Piya (2004). All these studies adopted deterministic approach to liquefaction potential analysis, and have presented unrepresentative and underestimated liquefaction susceptibility of the Kathmandu Valley soil (Gautam et al, 2017;Jha et al, 2020;K. C. et al, 2020;Sharma et al, 2016Sharma et al, , 2018Sharma et al, , 2019.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Probabilistic Liquefaction Potential of Kathmandu Soil Based On Standard Penetration Tests

Subedi

¹

,

Acharya

²

2021

Preprint

1

0

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Despite being a liquefaction susceptible zone, Kathmandu Valley soil in Nepal has limited studies on liquefaction potential and most of them are based on the deterministic approach. Although this method is widely used, it ignores the uncertainties of seismic parameters such as peak ground acceleration, amax, and earthquake magnitude, Mw as well as the inherent variabilities of soil layers, in-situ testing procedures, and geotechnical properties. On the other hand, the probabilistic approach helps assess the liquefaction potential by considering all these uncertainties. In this study, we assess the liquefaction hazard in the Kathmandu Valley using the first-order second-moment (FOSM) method as a probabilistic approach for liquefaction hazard assessment. The assessment is done for three likely-to-recur scenario earthquakes utilizing the geotechnical data of 1510 boreholes. The soils are characterized geotechnically to further assess susceptibility criteria of liquefaction in the valley. The assessment reveals that the central part of the valley is more vulnerable to liquefaction than other parts and the liquefaction probability increases with increasing depth up to 9 m, after which has geared down the value. Moreover, a relationship between the probability of liquefaction (PL) and the factor of safety (FS) against liquefaction is established. The hazard maps prepared for different earthquake scenarios can be useful for future infrastructure planning in Kathmandu Valley.

show abstract

Deterministic and Probabilistic Evaluation of Liquefaction Potential: A Case Study from 2015 Gorkha (Nepal) Earthquake

Cited by 9 publications

References 16 publications

Liquefaction potential for the Kathmandu Valley, Nepal: a sensitivity study

Liquefaction potential for the Kathmandu Valley, Nepal: a sensitivity study

Probabilistic Liquefaction Potential of Kathmandu Valley Soil Based on Standard Penetration Tests

Probabilistic Liquefaction Potential of Kathmandu Soil Based On Standard Penetration Tests

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