Developing a comprehensive time series of GDP per capita for 210 countries from 1950 to 2015

James, Spencer L.; Gubbins, Paul; Murray, Christopher J L; Gakidou, Emmanuela

doi:10.1186/1478-7954-10-12

Cited by 104 publications

(85 citation statements)

References 19 publications

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“…We estimated the following equation with mixed effects linear regression

\begin{matrix} right & left \ln ({}_{5}q_{0}) = β_{0} + β_{1} \times \ln ({LDI}_{cy}) + β_{2} \times {maternal education}_{cy} \\ right & left + β_{3} \times {HIV}_{cy} + \sum_{S = 1}^{308} α_{s} \times italic year_italic GBD {super region}_{s} + γ_{c} + ε_{cy} \end{matrix}

where c is country, y is year, γ c is a random effect on country, LDI cy is lagged distributed income per person 38 for country c in year y , maternal education cy is the average years of education earned by women in the age group 15 to 49, HIV cy is HIV-related child crude death rate 39,40 as estimated with the improved EPP-Spectrum for GBD 2013, 40–42 and 5 q 0 is the probability of death before the age of 5 estimated from this study. We also added combined year and GBD super-region fixed effects, year_GBD super region , to capture the differential secular trends of child mortality by geographic units.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Global, regional, and national levels of neonatal, infant, and under-5 mortality during 1990–2013: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013

et al. 2014

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Summary Background Remarkable financial and political efforts have been focused on the reduction of child mortality during the past few decades. Timely measurements of levels and trends in under-5 mortality are important to assess progress towards the Millennium Development Goal 4 (MDG 4) target of reduction of child mortality by two thirds from 1990 to 2015, and to identify models of success. Methods We generated updated estimates of child mortality in early neonatal (age 0–6 days), late neonatal (7–28 days), postneonatal (29–364 days), childhood (1–4 years), and under-5 (0–4 years) age groups for 188 countries from 1970 to 2013, with more than 29 000 survey, census, vital registration, and sample registration datapoints. We used Gaussian process regression with adjustments for bias and non-sampling error to synthesise the data for under-5 mortality for each country, and a separate model to estimate mortality for more detailed age groups. We used explanatory mixed effects regression models to assess the association between under-5 mortality and income per person, maternal education, HIV child death rates, secular shifts, and other factors. To quantify the contribution of these different factors and birth numbers to the change in numbers of deaths in under-5 age groups from 1990 to 2013, we used Shapley decomposition. We used estimated rates of change between 2000 and 2013 to construct under-5 mortality rate scenarios out to 2030. Findings We estimated that 6·3 million (95% UI 6·0–6·6) children under-5 died in 2013, a 64% reduction from 17·6 million (17·1–18·1) in 1970. In 2013, child mortality rates ranged from 152·5 per 1000 livebirths (130·6–177·4) in Guinea-Bissau to 2·3 (1·8–2·9) per 1000 in Singapore. The annualised rates of change from 1990 to 2013 ranged from −6·8% to 0·1%. 99 of 188 countries, including 43 of 48 countries in sub-Saharan Africa, had faster decreases in child mortality during 2000–13 than during 1990–2000. In 2013, neonatal deaths accounted for 41·6% of under-5 deaths compared with 37·4% in 1990. Compared with 1990, in 2013, rising numbers of births, especially in sub-Saharan Africa, led to 1·4 million more child deaths, and rising income per person and maternal education led to 0·9 million and 2·2 million fewer deaths, respectively. Changes in secular trends led to 4·2 million fewer deaths. Unexplained factors accounted for only −1% of the change in child deaths. In 30 developing countries, decreases since 2000 have been faster than predicted attributable to income, education, and secular shift alone. Interpretation Only 27 developing countries are expected to achieve MDG 4. Decreases since 2000 in under-5 mortality rates are accelerating in many developing countries, especially in sub-Saharan Africa. The Millennium Declaration and increased development assistance for health might have been a factor in faster decreases in some developing countries. Without further accelerated progress, many countries in west and central Africa will still have high levels of under-5 mortality in 20...

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“…We estimated the following equation with mixed effects linear regression

\begin{matrix} right & left \ln ({}_{5}q_{0}) = β_{0} + β_{1} \times \ln ({LDI}_{cy}) + β_{2} \times {maternal education}_{cy} \\ right & left + β_{3} \times {HIV}_{cy} + \sum_{S = 1}^{308} α_{s} \times italic year_italic GBD {super region}_{s} + γ_{c} + ε_{cy} \end{matrix}

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Global, regional, and national levels of neonatal, infant, and under-5 mortality during 1990–2013: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013

et al. 2014

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“…15 Urbanization was measured as proportion of a country’s population who live in urban areas using data from the Population Division of the Department of Economic and Social Affairs of the United Nations.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

The Global Cardiovascular Risk Transition

Danaei¹,

Singh²,

Paciorek

et al. 2013

Circulation

229

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Background It is commonly assumed that globally CVD risk factors are associated with affluence and Westernization. We investigated the associations of body mass index (BMI), fasting plasma glucose (FPG), systolic blood pressure (SBP), and serum total cholesterol (TC) with national income, Western diet, and (for BMI) urbanization in 1980 and 2008. Methods and Results Country-level risk factor estimates for 199 countries between 1980 and 2008 were from a previous systematic analysis of population-based data. We analyzed the associations between risk factors and natural logarithm of per-capita GDP [Ln(GDP)], a measure of Western diet, and (for BMI) percent population living in urban areas. In 1980, there was a positive association between national income and population mean BMI, SBP, and TC. By 2008, the slope of the association between Ln(GDP) and SBP became negative for women and zero for men. TC was associated with national income and Western diet throughout the period. In 1980, BMI rose with per-capita GDP and then flattened at about Int$7000; by 2008, the relationship resembled an inverted-U for women, peaking at middle income levels. BMI had a positive relationship with percent urban population in both 1980 and 2008. FPG had weaker associations with these country macro characteristics, but was positively associated with BMI. Conclusions The changing associations of metabolic risk factors with macroeconomic variables indicate that there will be a global pandemic of hyperglycemia and diabetes, together with high blood pressure in low income countries, unless effective lifestyle, and pharmacological interventions are implemented.

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“…The large majority of the data points (91%) are from the WDI, which reports for 1980-onward. The remaining are conversions from GDP in local currencies to PPP GDPs provided by the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (James, Gubbins, Murray, & Gakidou, 2012). The mean per-capita GDP for the sample is $3,533, ranging widely from 262 (Democratic Republic of the Congo in 2001) to 15,600 (Libya in 2007) (see Table 2).…”

Section: (Ii) Basic Determinantsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Reducing Child Undernutrition: Past Drivers and Priorities for the Post-MDG Era

2015

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As the post-MDG era approaches in 2016, reducing child undernutrition is gaining high priority on the international development agenda, both as a maker and marker of development. Revisiting Smith and Haddad (2000), we use data from 1970 to 2012 for 116 countries, finding that safe water access, sanitation, women's education, gender equality, and the quantity and quality of food available in countries have been key drivers of past reductions in stunting. Income growth and governance played essential facilitating roles. Complementary to nutrition-specific and nutrition-sensitive programs and policies, accelerating reductions in undernutrition in the future will require increased investment in these priority areas.

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Developing a comprehensive time series of GDP per capita for 210 countries from 1950 to 2015

Cited by 104 publications

References 19 publications

Global, regional, and national levels of neonatal, infant, and under-5 mortality during 1990–2013: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013

Global, regional, and national levels of neonatal, infant, and under-5 mortality during 1990–2013: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013

The Global Cardiovascular Risk Transition

Reducing Child Undernutrition: Past Drivers and Priorities for the Post-MDG Era

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