Developing a fire danger rating system for the United Kingdom

Kitchen, K.; Marno, Penny; Legg, Colin J.; Bruce, Matthew; Davies, G. Matt

doi:10.1016/j.foreco.2006.08.037

Cited by 21 publications

(22 citation statements)

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“…FWI forecasts are calculated using operational numerical weather prediction (NWP) data and classified into one of five fire danger categories (representing "low" to "exceptional" fire danger). The FWI System was adopted as the foundation for the MOFSI as it was found to highlight periods of high fire danger under a range of different weather conditions, it could identify periods of both short-term increased fire danger and periods when fire danger increased gradually over time, and it appeared to respond well to changing fire danger levels in different UK vegetation types (Kitchen et al, 2006;Met Office, 2005).…”

Section: Current Fire Danger Rating In the Ukmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…While FFMC and ISI skill is relatively worse in summer than in spring, DMC, DC and BUI all perform somewhat better. Kitchen et al (2006) andMet Office (2005). Each 2 km × 2 km grid cell within Great Britain is represented as a unit value and assigned to one element of the 4 × 4 matrix below, based upon whether a fire is burning in that particular grid cell and whether fire danger conditions are conducive to fire.…”

Section: Comparing Performance Of the Fwi Systemmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Calibration and evaluation of the Canadian Forest Fire Weather Index (FWI) System for improved wildland fire danger rating in the United Kingdom

Jong

Wooster

Kitchen

et al. 2016

Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci.

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Abstract. Wildfires in the United Kingdom (UK) pose a threat to people, infrastructure and the natural environment. During periods of particularly fire-prone weather, wildfires can occur simultaneously across large areas, placing considerable stress upon the resources of fire and rescue services. Fire danger rating systems (FDRSs) attempt to anticipate periods of heightened fire risk, primarily for earlywarning and preparedness purposes. The UK FDRS, termed the Met Office Fire Severity Index (MOFSI), is based on the Fire Weather Index (FWI) component of the Canadian Forest FWI System. The MOFSI currently provides daily operational mapping of landscape fire danger across England and Wales using a simple thresholding of the final FWI component of the Canadian FWI System. However, it is known that the system has scope for improvement. Here we explore a climatology of the six FWI System components across the UK (i.e. extending to Scotland and Northern Ireland), calculated from daily 2 km × 2 km gridded numerical weather prediction data and supplemented by long-term meteorological station observations. We used this climatology to develop a percentile-based calibration of the FWI System, optimised for UK conditions. We find this approach to be well justified, as the values of the "raw" uncalibrated FWI components corresponding to a very "extreme" (99th percentile) fire danger situation vary by more than an order of magnitude across the country. Therefore, a simple thresholding of the uncalibrated component values (as is currently applied in the MOFSI) may incur large errors of omission and commission with respect to the identification of periods of significantly elevated fire danger. We evaluate our approach to enhancing UK fire danger rating using records of wildfire occurrence and find that the Fine Fuel Moisture Code (FFMC), Initial Spread Index (ISI) and FWI components of the FWI System generally have the greatest predictive skill for landscape fire activity across Great Britain, with performance varying seasonally and by land cover type. At the height of the most recent severe wildfire period in the UK (2 May 2011), 50 % of all wildfires occurred in areas where the FWI component exceeded the 99th percentile. When all wildfire events during the 2010-2012 period are considered, the 75th, 90th and 99th percentiles of at least one FWI component were exceeded during 85, 61 and 18 % of all wildfires respectively. Overall, we demonstrate the significant advantages of using a percentile-based calibration approach for classifying UK fire danger, and believe that our findings provide useful insights for future development of the current operational MOFSI UK FDRS.

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Section: Current Fire Danger Rating In the Ukmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Comparing Performance Of the Fwi Systemmentioning

confidence: 99%

Calibration and evaluation of the Canadian Forest Fire Weather Index (FWI) System for improved wildland fire danger rating in the United Kingdom

Jong

Wooster

Kitchen

et al. 2016

Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci.

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“…Six fuel models were derived, mapped and run in Rothermel's fire spread model. Other fire danger rating systems have been developed for the United Kingdom and Portugal (Fernandes et al, 2006;Kitchen et al, 2006).…”

Section: Fire Models In Europementioning

confidence: 99%

Fire models and methods to map fuel types: The role of remote sensing

Arroyo

Pascual

Manzanera

2008

Forest Ecology and Management

220

166

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Understanding fire is essential to improving forest management strategies. More specifically, an accurate knowledge of the spatial distribution of fuels is critical when analyzing, modelling and predicting fire behaviour. First, we review the main concepts and terminology associated with forest fuels and a number of fuel type classifications. Second, we summarize the main techniques employed to map fuel types starting with the most traditional approaches, such as field work, aerial photo interpretation or ecological Keywords.modelling. We pay special attention to more contemporary techniques, which involve the use of remote Forest fuels sensing systems. In general, remote sensing systems are low-priced, can be regularly updated and are less Remote sensing time-consuming than traditional methods, but they are still facing important limitations. Recent work Fuel type nas snown that the integration of different sources of information and methods in a complementary way Fuel management helps to overcome most of these limitations. Further research is encouraged to develop novel and enhanced remote sensing techniques.

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“…Several key terms that are used throughout this paper thus require definition (Table 2). Until very recently there was no national fire danger forecasting system and, even now, the Met Office Fire Severity Index (Kitchen et al 2006) only covers part of the UK, and there are questions about its performance, particularly for shrub vegetation (Anderson 2006;Legg et al 2007). Both management burning and wildfires remain controversial topics and, in the context of climatic and environmental change, there is an urgent need to encourage informed and rational debate, identify knowledge gaps, and stimulate appropriate future research.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The future of fire management in the British uplands

Davies¹,

Gray²,

Hamilton³

et al. 2008

International Journal of Biodiversity Science & Management

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SUMMARYPrescribed and wild fires play a significant role in the ecology of upland areas; changes in the frequency and intensity of both can have significant effects on biodiversity and ecosystem function. Whilst the way we manage fire in the future will depend on desired outcomes, the risk of wildfires and the suitability of conditions for prescribed burning will depend on climate, land-use and environmental change. Changes in relative fire risk and hazard therefore need to be carefully considered when setting management policy. Fire has long been used as a management tool in the uplands of the UK but there has been little formal support or training, and emphasis has been placed on traditional knowledge. While there is pressure in some quarters for a reduction in the use of fire, prescribed burning can be used to protect biodiversity assets and reach a range of management objectives. Large areas of old heather excluded from rotational burning pose a significant fire hazard. Wildfires in such areas will be more intense and severe, and more likely to ignite peat, causing considerable environmental damage and releasing large quantities of carbon. We argue for an ecological basis for the use of fire and seek to open a debate by briefly reviewing the main controls on fire risk in upland areas and discussing existing management and its challenges with regards to three case studies: traditionally managed moorland, forestry and peatland soils. We make recommendations for future management and suggest significant challenges exist for managers and researchers that need to be dealt with urgently.

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Developing a fire danger rating system for the United Kingdom

Cited by 21 publications

References 0 publications

Calibration and evaluation of the Canadian Forest Fire Weather Index (FWI) System for improved wildland fire danger rating in the United Kingdom

Calibration and evaluation of the Canadian Forest Fire Weather Index (FWI) System for improved wildland fire danger rating in the United Kingdom

Fire models and methods to map fuel types: The role of remote sensing

The future of fire management in the British uplands

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