Developing a quantitative risk assessment process

Miller, L.A.; McElvaine, M D; McDowell, R M; Ahl, Alwynelle S.

doi:10.20506/rst.12.4.737

Cited by 32 publications

(8 citation statements)

References 4 publications

Supporting

Mentioning

Contrasting

Order By: Relevance

“…Morbidity rates for FMD outbreaks in northern Thailand were between 11% and 20%. 1 11 Outbreak reports from the DLD are in agreement with these calculations and yielded an approximate morbidity rate of 14% (11,939 cases/85,303 susceptible livestock). These estimates, however, were based on observations of clinical signs of the disease, and no reference was made as to the number of animals that were actually infected.…”

Section: Malaysiamentioning

confidence: 54%

Assessment of the likelihood of the introduction of foot-and-mouth disease through importation of live animals into the Malaysia-Thailand-Myanmar peninsula

Wongsathapornchai¹,

Salman²,

Edwards³

et al. 2008

ajvr

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

Section: Malaysiamentioning

confidence: 54%

Assessment of the likelihood of the introduction of foot-and-mouth disease through importation of live animals into the Malaysia-Thailand-Myanmar peninsula

Wongsathapornchai¹,

Salman²,

Edwards³

et al. 2008

ajvr

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…The methodology for quantifying the uncertainty associated with the outcomes has similarly been described [16]. Furthermore, models for the assessment of the animal disease risks associated with the importation of animals [17,18], in vivo derived embryos [19], in vitro produced embryos [20], and other animal products [15], have been presented.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The risk of introduction of equine infectious anemia virus into USA via cloned horse embryos imported from Canada

et al. 2012

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Deriving horse oocytes in the USA is hampered by the lack of abattoirs processing horse carcasses which could provide abundant quantities of ovaries from slaughtered mares. Therefore, several cloning industries in the USA are attempting to import cloned horse embryos from Canada. Like any agricultural commodity, cloned embryos pose a risk of introduction of exotic animal diseases into the importing country. Under such circumstances, risk assessment could provide an objective, transparent, and internationally accepted means for evaluating the risk. This quantitative risk assessment (QRA) was initiated to determine the risk of introduction of Equine infectious anemia virus (EIAV) into USA via cloned horse embryos imported from Canada. In assessing the risk, a structured knowledge base regarding cloning in relation to EIA was first developed. Based on the knowledge base, a scenario tree was developed to determine conditions (with mathematical probabilities) that could lead to the introduction and maintenance of EIAV along the cloning pathway. Parameters for the occurrence of the event at each node were estimated using published literature. Using @RISK software and setting Monte Carlo simulation at 50 000 iterations, the probability of importing an EIAV-infected cloned horse embryo was 1.8×10−9 (R = 1.5×10−12 to 2.9×10−8). Taking into account the current protocol for equine cloning and assuming the yield of 5 to 30 clones per year, the possible number of EIAV-infected cloned horse embryos ranged from 2.0×10−10 to 9.1×10−5 (Mean = 1.4×10−6) per year. Consequently, it would take up to 1.5×107 (R = 1.6×104 to 5.1×1010) years for EIAV to be introduced into the USA. Based on the knowledge base and our critical pathway analysis, the biological plausibility of introducing EIAV into USA via cloned horse embryos imported from Canada is extremely low.

show abstract

“…A QRA model ( 18 ) was developed to quantify the annual probability of HPAI introduction into Spain via the legal trade of live poultry (P HPAI ). According to Spanish national regulations, the detection of an HPAI case will immediately trigger a prohibition to import poultry from the infected country into Spain.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

A Quantitative Assessment of the Risk for Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza Introduction into Spain via Legal Trade of Live Poultry

Sánchez‐Vizcaíno¹,

Pérez²,

Lainez³

et al. 2010

Risk Analysis

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) is considered one of the most important diseases of poultry. During the last 9 years, HPAI epidemics have been reported in Asia, the Americas, Africa, and in 18 countries of the European Union (EU). For that reason, it is possible that the risk for HPAI virus (HPAIV) introduction into Spain may have recently increased. Because of the EU free-trade policy and because legal trade of live poultry was considered an important route for HPAI spread in certain regions of the world, there are fears that Spain may become HPAIV-infected as a consequence of the legal introduction of live poultry. However, no quantitative assessment of the risk for HPAIV introduction into Spain or into any other EU member state via the trade of poultry has been published in the peer-reviewed literature. This article presents the results of the first quantitative assessment of the risk for HPAIV introduction into a free country via legal trade of live poultry, along with estimates of the geographical variation of the risk and of the relative contribution of exporting countries and susceptible poultry species to the risk. The annual mean risk for HPAI introduction into Spain was estimated to be as low as 1.36 x 10(-3), suggesting that under prevailing conditions, introduction of HPAIV into Spain through the trade of live poultry is unlikely to occur. Moreover, these results support the hypothesis that legal trade of live poultry does not impose a significant risk for the spread of HPAI into EU member states.

show abstract

Developing a quantitative risk assessment process

Cited by 32 publications

References 4 publications

Assessment of the likelihood of the introduction of foot-and-mouth disease through importation of live animals into the Malaysia-Thailand-Myanmar peninsula

Assessment of the likelihood of the introduction of foot-and-mouth disease through importation of live animals into the Malaysia-Thailand-Myanmar peninsula

The risk of introduction of equine infectious anemia virus into USA via cloned horse embryos imported from Canada

A Quantitative Assessment of the Risk for Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza Introduction into Spain via Legal Trade of Live Poultry

Contact Info

Product

Resources

About