Development Forecasts for the Zero-Emission Bus Fleet in Servicing Public Transport in Chosen EU Member Countries

Abstract

Nearly two-thirds of the emissions that cause smog come from road transport. In April 2019, the European Parliament adopted new regulations on public procurement to encourage investment in clean buses—electric, hydrogen, or gas. Directive 2009/33/EC is to apply from the second half of 2021. The aim of this article is to make an attempt to simulate the number of zero-emission buses (ZEB) in European Union (EU) member countries in two time horizons: 2025 and 2030, and to forecast the number of clean vehicles in the precise time horizons, including before and after 2050. Research questions are as follows: (1) what will be the number of ZEBs in individual EU countries over the next few years; (2) which of the EU countries will reach by 2030 the level of 95% share of ZEBs in all buses, which are a fleet of public transport buses; and (3) in which year will which EU countries reach the level of 95% share of zero-emission buses. The method used is a Bass model. The conducted analyses demonstrate that, by 2050, only four of the EU members will be able to reach 95% level of share of clean buses in the city bus transport fleets. It is likely that other countries may not achieve this even by 2050.

Sustainable Use of the Catenary by Trolleybuses with Auxiliary Power Sources on the Example of Gdynia

“…The nearly 300 existing trolleybus systems worldwide are a relatively small number [27]. Scientific research concerns particular policies in the field of urban electric transport development, including trolleybuses [10,15,[28][29][30][31], comparative studies of the development of various means of public transport, including trolleybuses [21,[32][33][34] and the impact of means of transport on the environment, in particular, greenhouse gas emissions, CO 2 and other harmful substances [28,[35][36][37][38][39]. Few studies concern technical issues, including trolleybus drives [40][41][42], power supply infrastructure and catenary [43], vehicle development [19,20,44,45] and technical facilities [46].…”

Elektromobilność czynnikiem zmian jakościowych polskiego transportu samochodowego

“…zł. Jednakże przygotowane w 2019 r. stawki uznano za zbyt wysokie i wszystko wskazuje, że będą one dwa razy niższe 6 . Drugą kwestią jest nadal wysoka cena samochodów z napędem elektrycznym, większość z modeli oferowanych obecnie na rynku przewyższa wartość 124 tys.…”

BASS Model Analysis in “Crossing the Chasm” in E-Cars Innovation Diffusion Scenarios

“…Going further, it is also worth mentioning the thematic focus of the publication, related to the attempt to determine the number of electric vehicles (incl. buses) in different countries [2,3] or an attempt to estimate the amount of energy consumed by electric vehicles [4]. An interesting perspective is also the analysis in terms of identifying opportunities for the development of the described technology in various countries and regions of the world [4,5] or the directions of further research on electric vehicles and their impact on the environment [6].…”