Nearly two-thirds of the emissions that cause smog come from road transport. In April 2019, the European Parliament adopted new regulations on public procurement to encourage investment in clean buses—electric, hydrogen, or gas. Directive 2009/33/EC is to apply from the second half of 2021. The aim of this article is to make an attempt to simulate the number of zero-emission buses (ZEB) in European Union (EU) member countries in two time horizons: 2025 and 2030, and to forecast the number of clean vehicles in the precise time horizons, including before and after 2050. Research questions are as follows: (1) what will be the number of ZEBs in individual EU countries over the next few years; (2) which of the EU countries will reach by 2030 the level of 95% share of ZEBs in all buses, which are a fleet of public transport buses; and (3) in which year will which EU countries reach the level of 95% share of zero-emission buses. The method used is a Bass model. The conducted analyses demonstrate that, by 2050, only four of the EU members will be able to reach 95% level of share of clean buses in the city bus transport fleets. It is likely that other countries may not achieve this even by 2050.
Personal light electric vehicles (PLEVs) are a phenomenon that can currently be observed in cities, intended to be an ecological form of transport. The authors of the paper make an attempt to determine electricity consumption by PLEVs in the context of managing a large city in accordance with the concept of sustainable development. The article is of a cognitive nature. Research questions posed against the background of the goal formulated are as follows: how strong will the demand for PLEVs be (in the example of e-motor scooters, taking into consideration the number of vehicles) and for the electricity consumed by PLEVs. The method used is a simulation model. The conducted analyses demonstrate that a dynamic growth of PLEVs will result in an increased energy demand, which must be taken into account by the cities, developing according to the sustainable development conception.
In the face of contemporary ecological problems, including the influence of transport and mobility on the greenhouse effect, policy makers see a solution in the technology of electric vehicles (EVs). This innovation has appeared in the automotive market around the world. In this article, Rogers’ innovation diffusion concept was used to determine if and when EVs could replace combustion engine vehicles. The aim of the article is to analyze the current situation of innovative electric vehicle (EV) technology on the European Union (EU) market and the potential and possible directions of its market diffusion. As a result of the analysis of the current situation of the EU automotive markets, three groups of countries with different market conditions regarding the development of EV technology were distinguished. The classification was carried out using the K-means clustering algorithm, based on the current level of innovation and the level of development of the LPG-(Liquefied Petroleum Gas) powered car market. Then, a group of countries with the greatest advancement in EV technology was selected for further research and market diffusion scenarios were created for this innovation using the Bass model, assuming the target market size of 70–100% of all passenger cars.
The paper presents conclusions of the survey conducted in Gdańsk in October 2017. The study aimed to compare travel times between the largest residential districts in Gdańsk and the area of the business-academic center. The research was aimed at showing time losses on the commuting trips and their organizational and infrastructural causes, which lead to the extension of the actual travel time. Based on the identified time losses and their causes, recommendations regarding further organizational and investment work were presented to improve the competitiveness of public urban transport and bicycles in relation to the cars.
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