Development of human capital and the economy in Azerbaijan in the context of the Russian-Ukrainian war

Abstract

This paper aimed to empirically substantiate strategies for developing human capital (HC) and the economy in Azerbaijan during the Russian-Ukrainian war conflict (RUWC). Using the method of expert assessments, key indicators reflecting the development trends of the national economy and human capital are substantiated. Based on the construction of regression models and the elasticity index, the nature and consequences of the RUMC on the national economy and the HC of Azerbaijan have been analyzed. By hierarchical classification, we have determined the effective economic development strategies and HC in Azerbaijan during and after RUWC: increasing economic diversification, reducing part of the oil and gas sector in GDP, the development of the agro-industrial complex, the geographical diversification of imports and exports, and the strategy for IT development, providing comfortable conditions and tax preferences for IT businesses, legislative settlement of issues investment and activities of venture funds to attract IT-specialists for different countries.

Longitudinal Principal Component and Cluster Analysis of Azerbaijan’s Agricultural Productivity in Crop Commodities

“…Azerbaijan can increase its agricultural productivity by increasing the use of digital technologies, which would increase the efficiency of applied innovations at the enterprise level [33]. In addition, available land resources should be used more efficiently [34], and investment in human capital development should be increased in all agricultural sectors [35]. The ever-changing geopolitical factors (e.g., the Russo-Ukrainian war) are also an important factor to consider in the development of local agriculture.…”

Third-country economic consequences of Western sanctions on Russia: a thematic analysis of expert opinions in Azerbaijan

“…As a result of the unrest in Ukraine, U.S. leaders have turned their attention to Azerbaijan, which could provide a stable supply of natural gas to some of the United States' key European allies (Valiyev, 2014). However, Baghirov et al (2022) expressed concern about the Azerbaijani economy, pointing out the urgent need to develop human capital resources to improve high-value-added productive sectors in turbulent geopolitical times. In other words, the situation in 2022 may be less optimistic for Azerbaijan than in 2008 and 2014.…”

“…In other words, the situation in 2022 may be less optimistic for Azerbaijan than in 2008 and 2014. According to Baghirov et al (2022), the phenomenon of the so-called "curse of natural resources" and dependence on the Ukrainian and Russian economies, which often prove to be unstable and volatile economic partners, could become a major challenge if not addressed. Food security and stable nonoil export revenues could suffer even more in the long run if human capital development and structural policies are not on the agenda of government decision makers.…”

Exchange rate regime in a crisis: The case of Azerbaijan

“…World unemployment rate, % POV The proportion of the population below the international poverty line (%) Source: Authors' finding Among the external factors, we used world prices for oil and gas as goods that occupy the largest share in Azerbaijan's international trade structure and which significantly reacted to the global financial-economic crisis of 2008-2009, the humanitarian crisis caused by the COVID-19 pandemic, and military conflicts (World Bank, 2022). The world agricultural producer price index characterizes food security risks due to the Ukraine war (Baghirov et al, 2022). The number of people with COVID-19, countries with cases of infection, and quarantine restrictions are indicators characterizing the spread of the COVID-19 pandemic (Megits, Neskorodieva & Schuster, 2020;Vasiljeva et al, 2020).…”