Difference between even- and odd-numbered cycles in the predictability of solar activity and prediction of the amplitude of cycle 25

Yoshïda, Akio

doi:10.5194/angeo-32-1035-2014

Cited by 18 publications

(8 citation statements)

References 20 publications

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“…Wang (2017) and Jiang and Cao (2018) also predicted Cycle 25 to be comparable to Cycle 24. There are a number of studies predicting Cycle 25 to be slightly stronger (e.g., Cameron et al, 2016; Helal & Galal, 2013; Yoshida, 2014). This might be the case since historically odd cycles are shown to display higher amplitudes than their adjacent even cycles.…”

Section: Predictions Of Solar Activitymentioning

confidence: 99%

Galactic Cosmic Radiation in the Interplanetary Space Through a Modern Secular Minimum

et al. 2020

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Recent solar conditions indicate a persistent decline in solar activity-possibly similar to the past solar grand minima. During such periods of low solar activity, the fluxes of galactic cosmic rays (GCRs) increase remarkably, presenting a hazard for long-term crewed space missions. We used data from the Cosmic Ray Telescope for the Effects of Radiation (CRaTER) on the Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter (LRO) to examine the correlation between the heliospheric magnetic field, solar wind speed, and solar modulation potential of the GCRs through Cycle 24. We used this correlation to project observations from past secular solar minima, including the Dalton minimum (1790-1830) and the Gleissberg minimum (1890-1920), into the next cycle. For the case of conditions similar to the Dalton (or Gleissberg) minimum, the heliospheric magnetic field could drop to 3.61 (or 4.06) nT, leading to a dose rate increase of ∼75% (or 34%). We showed that accounting for a floor in the modulation potential, invoked by the Badhwar-O'Neill 2014 model, moderates the projected radiation levels in Cycle 25. We used these results to determine the most conservative permissible mission duration (PMD, 290.4 +37.7 −35.9 and 204.3 +26.6 −25.2 days for 45-year-old male and female astronauts, respectively) based on a 3% risk of exposure-induced death (REID) at the upper 95% confidence interval in interplanetary space.

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Section: Predictions Of Solar Activitymentioning

confidence: 99%

Galactic Cosmic Radiation in the Interplanetary Space Through a Modern Secular Minimum

et al. 2020

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“…Helal and Galal [] used a correlation between the number of spotless days and the upcoming solar maximum to update an earlier prediction to R 24 = 91.6 ± 11.3 in 2013.4 and estimated Solar Cycle 25 will have R 25 = 118.2, peaking 4.0 years after the upcoming solar minimum. Yoshida [] used correlations between R Z before minimum with the upcoming solar maximum, splitting the even/odd cycles to derive R 24 = 81.3 and R 25 = 115.4 ± 11.9. This prediction is one of the few that uses symmetries from the 22 year solar magnetic cycle rather than concentrating on the 11 year sunspot cycle.…”

Section: Anticipating the Next Solar Cyclementioning

confidence: 99%

Predictions of Solar Cycle 24: How are we doing?

Pesnell

2016

Space Weather

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Predictions of solar activity are an essential part of our Space Weather forecast capability.Users are requiring usable predictions of an upcoming solar cycle to be delivered several years before solar minimum. A set of predictions of the amplitude of Solar Cycle 24 accumulated in 2008 ranged from zero to unprecedented levels of solar activity. The predictions formed an almost normal distribution, centered on the average amplitude of all preceding solar cycles. The average of the current compilation of 105 predictions of the annual-average sunspot number is 106 ± 31, slightly lower than earlier compilations but still with a wide distribution. Solar Cycle 24 is on track to have a below-average amplitude, peaking at an annual sunspot number of about 80. Our need for solar activity predictions and our desire for those predictions to be made ever earlier in the preceding solar cycle will be discussed. Solar Cycle 24 has been a below-average sunspot cycle. There were peaks in the daily and monthly averaged sunspot number in the Northern Hemisphere in 2011 and in the Southern Hemisphere in 2014. With the rapid increase in solar data and capability of numerical models of the solar convection zone we are developing the ability to forecast the level of the next sunspot cycle. But predictions based only on the statistics of the sunspot number are not adequate for predicting the next solar maximum. I will describe how we did in predicting the amplitude of Solar Cycle 24 and describe how solar polar field predictions could be made more accurate in the future.

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“…Helal and Galal (2013) used a correlation between the number of spotless days and the upcoming solar maximum to estimate that Solar Cycle 25 will have R z = 118.2 (V1), peaking 4.0 years after the solar minimum. Yoshida (2014) used correlations between R z before minimum with the upcoming solar maximum, using the symmetries of the even/odd cycles to derive the prediction: R z = 115.4 ± 11.9 (V1). Based on the empirical correlation between the dipole moment during solar minimum and the strength of the subsequent cycle, Cameron et al (2016) suggest that Cycle 25 will be of moderate amplitude, not much higher than cycle 24.…”

Section: Project See: Solar Evolution and Extremamentioning

confidence: 99%

A review of the SCOSTEP’s 5-year scientific program VarSITI—Variability of the Sun and Its Terrestrial Impact

Shiokawa

Georgieva

2021

Prog Earth Planet Sci

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The Sun is a variable active-dynamo star, emitting radiation in all wavelengths and solar-wind plasma to the interplanetary space. The Earth is immersed in this radiation and solar wind, showing various responses in geospace and atmosphere. This Sun–Earth connection variates in time scales from milli-seconds to millennia and beyond. The solar activity, which has a ~11-year periodicity, is gradually declining in recent three solar cycles, suggesting a possibility of a grand minimum in near future. VarSITI—variability of the Sun and its terrestrial impact—was the 5-year program of the scientific committee on solar-terrestrial physics (SCOSTEP) in 2014–2018, focusing on this variability of the Sun and its consequences on the Earth. This paper reviews some background of SCOSTEP and its past programs, achievements of the 5-year VarSITI program, and remaining outstanding questions after VarSITI.

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Difference between even- and odd-numbered cycles in the predictability of solar activity and prediction of the amplitude of cycle 25

Cited by 18 publications

References 20 publications

Galactic Cosmic Radiation in the Interplanetary Space Through a Modern Secular Minimum

Galactic Cosmic Radiation in the Interplanetary Space Through a Modern Secular Minimum

Predictions of Solar Cycle 24: How are we doing?

A review of the SCOSTEP’s 5-year scientific program VarSITI—Variability of the Sun and Its Terrestrial Impact

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